Tag: Moonlight

82nd Golden Globes Awards Reaction

Before we get to the headlines (and certainly there are), let’s dispense with some quick takes on the 82nd Golden Globes Awards ceremony. Nikki Glaser did a very good job hosting and I’d expect to see her back. Seth Rogen correctly pointed out that the camera angle on the presenters tonight was awkward. And Vin Diesel made the evening awkward too when he said hi from the stage to Dwayne Johnson. They famously did not get along working together on Fast and Furious franchise features.

Back to the awards. I went 9 for 15 in my picks. Quite frankly, I would’ve been pleased with getting over half in this unpredictable ceremony and I did so I’ll take it. Emilia Pérez had a big night with four victories. So did The Brutalist with three. Anora… not so much.

Jacques Audiard’s Pérez took three prizes I predicted it would in Non-English Language Film, Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), and Original Song (“El Mal”). Yet I had it falling short to Sean Baker’s Anora for Best Musical/Comedy and it prevailed. Has Pérez‘s stock risen? Probably.

Those who have followed my Oscar predictions on the blog will notice I’ve never had Anora listed in first in Best Picture. A lot of other prognosticators have. I’m not patting myself on the back. This is one of the more unpredictable seasons in memory. I’ve just never bought the narrative that Anora will take the grand prize and tonight fuels it.

A bigger surprise than Anora losing Musical/Comedy, in my view, was Mikey Madison not taking Actress. That went instead to Demi Moore in The Substance, who gave the strongest acceptance speech of the night. You have to wonder if this makes Moore the frontrunner. I have had Madison listed for weeks in 1st place for the Academy’s Actress statue and that could change when I update my picks in the next couple of days (hopefully tomorrow). Anora also didn’t get Screenplay and I thought it would. That went instead to Conclave.

After Conclave‘s screenplay award, I thought maybe it would go onto take Best Drama. However, Globe voters opted for The Brutalist (which my was pick). Its maker Brady Corbet won Director. I also had it forecasted for Original Score but that went to Challengers in a surprise call. I’ve had The Brutalist placed in 1st for months in BP for the Oscars. Interestingly, in the previous ten years, only 3 GG Drama winners correlated with Oscar (Moonlight, Nomadland, last year’s Oppenheimer). I still think it’s the odds on favorite.

Adrien Brody did give The Brutalist a third Globe in Best Actor and I went with Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. This could signal Brody’s performance will be favored in ceremonies to come. I also missed Best Actress (Drama). I went with Angelina Jolie in Maria while my runner-up Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) made the podium walk.

With Moore and Torres victorious over Madison and Jolie, the Oscar Best Actress is looking wide open with several hopefuls jockeying for position.

Let’s run down some races I got right. Kieran Culkin is your Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. The hard to figure out Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy derby is one I was lucky with when Sebastian Stan in A Different Man was picked. Wicked took the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award. And I will pat myself on the back for going with Flow in Animated Feature instead of The Wild Robot.

So where do we stand now with Oscar as I prepare a new forecast? Anora is down. Emilia is up. The Brutalist holds strong. Demi Moore could be a real threat in Actress. And I think Dwayne Johnson still dislikes Vin Diesel…

The Fire Inside Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.

Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.

The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Nosferatu prediction, click here:

Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

A Complete Unknown Box Office Prediction

For my Babygirl prediction, click here:

Babygirl Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Mufasa: The Lion King

30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.

And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.

Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.

Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.

In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.

Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.

I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.

Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million

For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Fire Inside

Once known as Flint Strong due to the protagonist’s Michigan hometown, the retitled The Fire Inside premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Scheduled for a Christmas Day domestic bow, Rachel Morrison (an Oscar nominated cinematographer for Mudbound) makes her directorial debut. Ryan Destiny stars as Olympic boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Barry Jenkins, the acclaimed maker of Best Picture winning Moonlight, wrote the script.

Reviews say the sports flick mostly lands its dramatic punches. The RT score is 91% with a 69 on Metacritic. Despite the pedigree, I doubt Amazon MGM enters the awards ring here. One potential exception is with Henry who was a bit of a surprise Supporting Actor hopeful for 2022’s Causeway. He would likely be an unexpected contender, but it’s a small possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Exhibiting Forgiveness

Exhibiting Forgiveness marks the directorial debut of Titus Kaphar and it was unveiled at Sundance over the weekend. The family drama stars André Holland, John Earl Jelks, Andra Day, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.

Sporting a 100% RT rating, Forgiveness could be a real contender in some top tier races a year from now. With the right campaign, Picture and Original Screenplay are feasible. Holland could be a factor in lead Actor. With acclaimed turns in Moonlight and Passing, it could be time for major awards exposure (he also has a potentially baity part in The Actor in 2024). Jelks also is generating praise for his supporting work. This is one to keep an eye on throughout the long upcoming season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Gotham Honors Past Lives

The 33rd Annual Gotham Awards were held this evening and it was looking like a potential night of missed opportunities for Celine Song’s Past Lives… until the end. Of the five nominees for Best Feature, the acclaimed A24 romantic drama was really the only one with legit Best Picture aspirations at the Oscars. It did take the top prize over Passages, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One.

This was following its director Song surprisingly not being awarded Breakthrough Director. That instead went to A.V. Rockwell for A Thousand and One and made the announcement for the big race a bit suspenseful.

Of the 20 pictures that have taken Best Feature at the Oscars (this category has existed since 2004 and there was a tie one year), 12 have become Academy hopefuls for BP. Half of those (The Hurt Locker, Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, Nomadland, Everything Everywhere All at Once) won. As a reminder, until this year, contenders for the Gothams were typically lower budgeted titles. Even with the budgetary restrictions removed, some heavy hitters like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon opted not to compete at this ceremony.

As far as Past Lives is concerned, the perception of it losing could’ve hindered its Oscar chances. So it helped itself tonight by doing what it was expected to do. That said, it missed another possible victory with Greta Lee coming up short in Outstanding Lead Performance. Lily Gladstone took the trophy… not for the non-contending Killers of the Flower Moon, but for The Unknown Country. Gladstone seems on her way to a Best Actress slot for Moon. This is another unexpected win for an awards body that frequently provides them.

Outstanding Supporting Performance went to Charles Melton in May December and he might’ve upped his Oscar stock more than anyone. This race saw potential victors like Ryan Gosling (Barbie) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) end up behind him. **Note that the Gothams recently switched to ten nominees in lead and supporting without a divide for gender**. I’ve had Melton in my projected quintet recently and am feeling more and more confident about that. While Melton is a long shot to win at the big show, it should be noted that the previous two recipients (Troy Kotsur in CODA and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere) took the Supporting Actor Oscar.

Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall received the Screenplay and International Feature awards. France did not select it as their pick for International Feature Film at the Academy Awards (where it probably would’ve been locked in a fierce competition with The Zone of Interest). Fall is a coin toss for BP inclusion so every little bit helps.

Finally, Four Daughters is your Documentary Feature pick (over 20 Days in Mariupol) as it increases it exposure.

Keep an eye on the blog for an Oscar predictions update in the coming days!

Oscar Predictions: Leave the World Behind

Based on the well-regarded 2020 novel by Rumaan Alam, Leave the World Behind has premiered at the AFI Fest prior to its limited November 22nd theatrical run and December 8th Netflix bow. Sam Esmail directs the apocalyptic thriller starring Julia Roberts, Mahershala Ali, Ethan Hawke, Myha’la, Farrah Mackenzie, Charlie Evans, and Kevin Bacon.

Counting Barack and Michelle Obama among its executive producers, this looks to attract plenty of eyeballs during the holiday season. The small number of reviews so far are mostly complimentary (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) while not as strong as the source material’s notices.

Despite the awards friendly cast (Roberts won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich and Ali is a two-time recipient for 2016’s Moonlight and 2018’s Green Book), the chances for World being a contender are likely flatlined. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Gotham Nominations: A Notebook Report

The highly unpredictable Gotham Awards released nominations today for their 2023 best. And, as expected, it was… unpredictable. There was added intrigue because the organization (dedicated to independent film) dropped their “low” budget requirements (traditionally $35 million or under) to qualify for inclusion. However, likely Oscar heavy hitters such as Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and The Color Purple took themselves out of contention.

That was not the case with Barbie, but it managed just one nomination in Outstanding Supporting Performance for Ryan Gosling. His costar from The Notebook Rachel McAdams will compete against him for her work in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. Last year, the Gothams dropped their gender divisions with ten nominees in the lead and supporting derbies. We’ll cover those momentarily.

We start with Best Feature which showcases five pictures. From 2014-16, the Gotham recipient matched the Academy’s BP with Birdman, Spotlight, and Moonlight. The same occurred in 2020 with Nomadland and last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. In other recent years, there’s been at least one nominee that got into BP at the big dance, including The Favourite, Marriage Story, and Tár. The only recent exception in the last decade was in 2021.

This year’s contenders are Passages, Past Lives, Reality, Showing Up, and A Thousand and One. Only Past Lives seems poised to make BP at the Oscars and even that isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Andrew Haigh’s romantic ghost tale All of Us Strangers actually led all nominees with four: Screenplay, International Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Andrew Scott), and Outstanding Supporting Performance (Claire Foy).

Last year, four of the ten leading performance nominees managed Oscar nominations. That includes the two winners (Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once) as well as Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Cate Blanchett (Tár). Danielle Deadwyler (Till), who was snubbed by the Academy, won.

In addition to the aforementioned Scott for Strangers, the other nine up for lead in 2023 are Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin), Lily Gladstone (The Unknown Country), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Franz Rogowski (Passages), Babetida Sadjo (Our Father, the Devil), Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla), Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One), Michelle Williams (Showing Up), and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). I would argue that unlike Fraser, Yeoh, and Blanchett from the previous ceremony, none of the nominees here are guaranteed Oscar spots. Those with the best chance? Probably Lee, Wright, Spaeny, and Scott. Gladstone should get in, but it will be for Killers of the Flower Moon and not Country.

The supporting derby in 2022 yielded three eventual nominees including Supporting Actor victor Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) as well as Hong Chau (The Whale) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway). Quan also took the Gotham.

Our ten supporting players for this year’s ceremony are the aforementioned Foy (All of Us Strangers) and McAdams (Margaret) and Gosling (Barbie). Then there’s Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Jamie Foxx (They Cloned Tyrone), Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Charles Melton (May December), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). With the exception of Foxx, I would say all nine have solid to at least feasible shots at making the Oscar cut (especially Gosling and Randolph).

How will it all shake out? Don’t look for the Gothams to provide too much guidance. Yet today’s announcement at least gives us a peek at movies and performers who could keep or gain momentum. Movies like The Holdovers, Poor Things, Anatomy of a Fall, and more that came up short today? They shouldn’t worry too much.

Oscar Predictions: BlackBerry

2023 is at the halfway plus mark and critics are posting their best of lists for the year thus far. Matt Johnson’s BlackBerry, a dramedy focused on the invention of the OG smartphone, shows up on plenty. Jay Baruchel and Glenn Howerton (best known for It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia) headline with a supporting cast including the director himself, Rich Sommer, Michael Ironside, Martin Donovan, Michelle Giroux, SungWon Cho, Saul Rubinek, and Cary Elwes.

Those who first saw it at the Berlin Film Festival in February got the encouraging chatter started. Since its release in the past few weeks, the acclaim has grown as evidenced by the 98% Rotten Tomatoes meter.

Elevation Pictures is the studio behind it. Before becoming its own production company in recent years, they had awards success distributing such titles as The Imitation Game, Room, and Moonlight in Canada. They have yet to see their own financed entities have a breakout in the space.

I didn’t give BlackBerry much chance of being the one (that’s why you’re just now seeing this post). Yet the buzz seems to be getting louder. This applies to the adapted screenplay by Johnson and Matthew Miller and the supporting performance of Howerton, who is garnering best in show plaudits.

The bulk of contenders are often saved for the second six months of the calendar year, but BlackBerry could stick around in a way the product itself eventually could not. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…