Penguins Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature brand marches into theaters next week with the release of Penguins. It continues the franchise’s environmentally conscious documentaries timed for release just prior to Earth Day. As the title suggests, this Antarctic set coming of age tale focuses on a young penguin finding his way in the frozen tundra. Ed Helms narrates with Alastair Fothergill (who co-directed 2014’s Bears) and Jeff Wilson sharing filming duties.

Over the past decade, opening weekend grosses for DisneyNature has been quite consistent. The aforementioned Bears took in $4.7 million. The following year’s Monkey Kingdom made $4.5 million. In 2017, Born in China earned $4.7 million. That’s well under the studio’s high mark in 2012 achieved by Chimpanzee at $10.6 million.

Penguins is the first in the series since 2010’s Oceans to premiere on a Wednesday. Based on recent performances, that could mean it makes less than $4 million over the traditional weekend since it gets a two-day jump-start. I’ll predict that happens.

Penguins opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Curse of La Llorona prediction, click here:

For my Breakthrough prediction, click here:

Born in China Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.

Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:

Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut

Oceans (2010) – $6 million

African Cats (2011) – $6 million

Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million

Bears (2014) – $4.7 million

Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million

As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).

Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

Box Office Predictions: April 24-26

The final weekend at the box office in 2015 will likely be memorable only as “the weekend before Avengers: Age of Ultron comes out” as that summer season kick off blockbuster may be poised for the largest domestic opening of all time.

As for this weekend, the romance The Age of Adaline with Blake Lively and Harrison Ford comes out. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

Adaline does have a shot at the top spot, but I’m projecting it will fall a bit short of Furious 7, allowing that enormous hit to have its fourth weekend at #1.

The real wild card this weekend is Ex Machina, a critically acclaimed British science entry starring Domhnall Gleeson and Oscar Isaac. My prediction post on it is here and I’m estimating it’ll land in fourth place:

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 got off to a healthy start last weekend and should lose about half its audience in its sophomore frame. Horror flick Unfriended should drop over 50%, as most pics of its genre in their second weekends do. Home, Dreamworks animated solid performer, should round out the top five.

There’s also Little Boy, a World War II comedic drama with Kevin James. Huh? I don’t expect much out of it as it should fall far outside of the top six:

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

2. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $12 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Ex Machina

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Home

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (April 17-19)

In its third weekend, Furious 7 was tops again with $29.1 million, just under my $30.4M estimate. The Universal juggernaut stands at $294 million.

Kevin James surpassed most expectations as his critically drubbed Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 earned $23.7 million, a bit higher than my $21.4M prediction. The sequel couldn’t match the $31 million accomplished by the original, but it wasn’t expected to and this is a solid result.

Similarly, the low budget horror entry Unfriended had a commendable $15.8 million debut, outpacing my $12.6M projection.

In fourth, Home’s $10.6 million haul came in below my $12.3M estimate and its total is at $142 million. In its second weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride was fifth with $7 million. My prediction? Exactly that! It’s made $23 million in its ten days of release.

Disney’s nature documentary Monkey Kingdom made just $4.5 million for a weak 8th place showing, not reaching my $5.9M guess. Even further down the chart and outside the top ten, the James Franco/Jonah Hill drama True Story opened on around 800 screens and managed a paltry $1.9 million (under my generous $3.7M prediction). Even worse, Child 44 with Tom Hardy premiered on just over 500 screens. I thought it would eek out a $2.1 million gross, yet it bombed badly with just $621,000 for a 17th place debut.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 17-19

Three new films open in wide release with two other rather high-profile entries debuting in more limited release. The trio of newbies going wide are the Kevin James sequel Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, horror pic Unfriended, and Disney nature documentary Monkey Kingdom. You can review my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Blart would love to replicate the $31 million debut accomplished by its predecessor in 2009. If it manages that, it would definitely challenge the third weekend of juggernaut Furious 7 for the top spot. However, that seems unlikely and James appears poised for the runner-up position.

Unfriended certainly has the potential for a robust opening (many horror flicks over perform), but I have it only posting so-so numbers. Monkey Kingdom will be lucky to break into the top five and my prediction has it not accomplishing that kind of business.

As for holdovers, Furious should three-peat at the top while the four and five spots should be filled by Home and The Longest Ride.

Outside of the top five, the spy thriller Child 44 with Tom Hardy and Gary Oldman rolls out on only about 800 screens while the crime drama True Story with James Franco and Jonah Hill premieres in approximately 550 venues. Due to their low number of screens, their openings should be fairly minor and I didn’t bother to do individual posts about them. I’ll say Child 44 earns $2.1 million while True Story makes $3.7 million.

And with that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

2. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. Unfriended

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million

4. Home

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Longest Ride

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Monkey Kingdom Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 10-12)

As expected, Furious 7 easily topped the charts in weekend #2 with $59.5 million, just above my $56.5M estimate. The blockbuster has amassed an amazing $251 million in just ten days and is likely to rule the entire month of April at the top spot.

Dreamworks animated Home continued its solid run with $18.5 million in its third weekend, topping my $15.3M projection. Its made $129 million so far.

The Nicholas Sparks adapted romantic drama The Longest Ride had a middling premiere with $13 million, close to my $12.2M prediction. With no star power, it struggled a bit to reach its target audience.

Get Hard was fourth with $8.2 million (compared to my $6.1M prediction). The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart teaming has earned $70 million at press time. The five spot belonged to Cinderella with $7.1 million, in line with my $7.3M projection and its total stands at $180M.

Elsewhere down the chart, the Helen Mirren/Ryan Reynolds drama Woman in Gold expanded its theater count for a respectable 7th place showing at $5.4 million.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Monkey Kingdom Box Office Prediction

DisneyNature unveils their latest animal documentary this Friday with Monkey Kingdom, narrated by Tina Fey. The doc follows a number of similarly themed pics put out by the studio in recent years, including Chimpanzee and Bears.

Chimpanzee faired well upon its release in 2012 with a $10.6 million debut. Monkey Kingdom would love to replicate that number. It might be tough. Last year’s Bears managed only $4.7 million out of the gate when it premiered on the same April weekend.

It could boil down to something as simple as this: do kids like monkeys more than bears? Probably and I believe that means Kingdom should beat the Bears opening, but not by much and not very close to what Chimpanzee accomplished.

Monkey Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million