83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We move to Supporting Actress. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee and that’s Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. The eventual winner Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) as well as Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), were not identified at this early juncture.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. Last year in April 2024, I had Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) slotted in Supporting Actress in Other Possibilities. She ended up going lead and nabbing a nod.

This premiere posts projects Erivo’s costar Ariana Grande will be a repeat nominee for Wicked: For Good. I’m also forecasting that Gwyneth Paltrow will return to the awards mix over a quarter century behind her Shakespeare in Love Actress victory.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Nia Long, Michael

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Emily Watson, Hamnet

97th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

This is it. After months upon months of speculation and scores of individual Oscar Prediction posts…

After 35 Case Of entries making the argument for and against every Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor nominee…

After trying to pick up clues based on what happened at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, and more…

After changing and re-changing my mind right up until I type these final words…

These are my final prediction for the 97th Academy Awards airing Sunday with Conan O’Brien hosting!

We’ve had endless chatter on this blog so let’s get to it. For each race, I’m giving you my winner pick with a runner-up and some brief commentary.

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

Unlike last year where Oppenheimer was the obvious pick to win, there is real suspense heading into the last category of the night. Anora took Critics Choice/DGA/PGA, Conclave nabbed BAFTA/SAG Best Ensemble while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez won their respective Drama and Musical or Comedy competitions at the Globes.

Due to its recent controversies, Pérez is out of the hunt. I honestly could see The Brutalist still emerging. I had it placed at #1 in my overall predictions for a long time during my weekly updates. That said, it’s probably third in the running. Even though one heckuva argument can be made for Conclave and recent momentum, I’m going with Anora.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It is very dangerous to go against the DGA winner and that’s Sean Baker. Oscar/DGA match nearly every year. If you’re betting on this competition, probably go Baker. Yet Corbet took the Globe and BAFTA. Jon M. Chu (as an outlier) was the Critics Choice honoree. I could see Corbet still pulling this off.

PREDICTED WINNER: BRADY CORBET, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Sean Baker, Anora

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Torres (Globe winner for Actress in a Drama) isn’t impossible, but it’s a long shot. This is a real nail biter between Madison and Moore. The former was the surprise BAFTA recipient while Moore’s comeback narrative yielded her the Globe (Musical or Comedy), Critics Choice, and SAG. Had Madison taken SAG, I’d probably be predicting her. I’m sticking with Demi in what could be the closest race of the evening.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Chalamet certainly made this race more intriguing when he took SAG, but Brody has the Globe/Critics Choice/BAFTA combo.

PREDICTED WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY, THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

It was once thought that this could turn into a Grande v. Saldaña showdown. The latter has instead swept through the season. Saldaña appears immune to the Pérez negative publicity.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisvov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

It’s rare for the Supporting Actor winner not to come from a BP nominee, but Culkin has swept thus far and anyone else taking this would be a major upset at this juncture.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

This is not the slam dunk that I once assumed with Anora. Both A Real Pain and The Substance have picked up unexpected precursor prizes. I’m still going with my BP.

PREDICTED WINNER: ANORA

Runner-Up: A Real Pain

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Conclave should get this though a Nickel Boys upset is feasible.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Nickel Boys

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

This will be the largest test as to how much controversy truly hurt Pérez. A few weeks ago, I would’ve easily picked it. Then came bad press and I’m Still Here sneaking in the BP ten with Torres up in Best Actress. Pérez could still pull this off, but I’m saying Here.

PREDICTED WINNER: I’M STILL HERE

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Flow and Robot have both picked up precursors. So did Gromit, but that was BAFTA and they honored their own. This feels like a coin flip between Flow and Robot and my gut says the former in a squeaker.

PREDICTED WINNER: FLOW

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

The doc branch is truly unpredictable and that’s compounded by precursors being all over the place. In fact, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story picked up a couple honors and it’s not listed here. No Other Land was once thought of as a sweeper and that didn’t materialize. I’ll still say it wins with Porcelain as the most significant threat.

PREDICTED WINNER: NO OTHER LAND

Runner-Up: Porcelain War

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

Maria and Nosferatu are possible but I’ll say the epic Brutalist.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Nosferatu

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

Academy voters should ride with Wicked.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

This is a tough one between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave. The Brutalist is tempting and so is going with the BP pick Anora. This feels like a dart board selection and I’m landing on BAFTA honoree Conclave.

PREDICTED WINNER: CONCLAVE

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

All signs point to The Substance.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

I wouldn’t rule out Conclave, but The Brutalist is the pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE BRUTALIST

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez; “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Who knows? Maybe the Academy just goes with Elton John. They could also finally honor songwriter Diane Warren after 15 nomination and zero wins. And this is another test for Pérez with Globe winner “Mi Camino”. I’ll say “Camino” in a pick ’em.

PREDICTED WINNER: “MI CAMINO” FROM EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

If The Brutalist over performs and takes BP, I could see this happening. Wicked is the safer pick.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: The Brutalist

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

The musicals could surprise. Dune: Part Two is likelier.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: A Complete Unknown

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

This should be Dune‘s other victory.

PREDICTED WINNER: DUNE: PART TWO

Runner-Up: Better Man

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening and here’s the breakdown of win totals for the pictures…

4 Wins

The Brutalist

2 Wins

Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

1 Win

Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain

31st SAG Awards Reaction

The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.

I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.

Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.

For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.

The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.

Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.

Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.

Oscars: The Case of Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Felicity Jones in Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. If you missed my posts covering Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Ariana Grande from Wicked, they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

Best Actress (2014, The Theory of Everything) – lost to Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

The Case for Felicity Jones:

A decade after contending in lead actress for The Theory of Everything, Jones gets her second Academy try in the picture tied for the second most nominations. She also received mentions at BAFTA and the Golden Globes.

The Case Against Felicity Jones:

Jones was not nominated at Critics Choice or SAG and nearly all chatter of an actor winning for The Brutalist has focused on Adrien Brody in Best Actor. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) has swept the season so far and with SAG the only precursor left, Jones has no chance of picking up any hardware before the big show.

The Verdict:

It was a question mark as to whether Jones would make the final five. It’s an honor to be nominated.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown…

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

Oscars: The Case of Ariana Grande in Wicked

31st SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.

That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.

At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.

Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.

PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED

Runner-Up: Anora

Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role

Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)

This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.

PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE

Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.

PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN

Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.

PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ

Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.

PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN

Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked

This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.

PREDICTED WINNER: THE FALL GUY

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

Oscars: The Case of Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown

It begins with the ten BP nominees and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Monica Barbaro in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown.

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Monica Barbaro:

As Bob Dylan’s on and off again flame Joan Baez, Barbaro has a breakout role as the legendary folk singer. The SAG awards put her in their mix and the picture itself scored an impressive eight nominations overall.

The Case Against Monica Barbaro:

Folks making up the voting branches at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes did not nominate her. Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez has dominated the precursors.

The Verdict:

Of Unknown‘s three acting nominees – Timothée Chalamet in Actor, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, and here – I would rank Barbaro third in terms of winning possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Yura Borisov from Anora…

Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered Anora and The Brutalist for BP and if you missed those, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third hopeful is A Complete Unknown.

The Case for A Complete Unknown:

If you want to bet on the picture with some late breaking momentum, the Bob Dylan biopic from James Mangold might be your horse. Released in December, Unknown is doing healthy business at the box office and scored 8 total noms that include Director, Actor (Timothée Chalamet), Supporting Actress (Monica Barbaro), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. The journey to the better than expected nomination count began with over performances at the precursors. It really hasn’t missed anywhere with a Best Ensemble mention at SAG and BP noms at the Golden Globes, PGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and a DGA slot for Mangold.

The Case Against A Complete Unknown:

It didn’t win the Golden Globe in Drama (that went to The Brutalist). The 80% RT score and 71 Metacritic are below most of its competitors. There’s even a chance that it goes 0 for 8 on Oscar night. I wouldn’t say it is the favorite in any category.

The Verdict:

I don’t think it’s impossible for this to take the top prize, but I would need to see some victories at upcoming precursors such as Critics Choice or SAG.

My Case Of posts will continue with Conclave…

Oscars: The Case of Anora

Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist

97th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott announced nominees for the 97th Academy Awards this morning after being delayed from last week due to the California wildfires. For the ceremony airing March 2nd (hosted by Conan O’Brien), I went 89 for 105 in my picks. I’ll allow myself a pat on the back as I managed to go 20/20 in the four acting derbies and 10/10 in the screenplay races.

As predicted, Emilia Pérez led all hopefuls and it managed to nab 13 nominations (I projected it would get 11). The Brutalist and Wicked followed with 10 apiece while A Complete Unknown and Conclave generated 8.

Let’s walk through each competition with how I did and some initial thoughts, shall we?

BEST PICTURE

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 9/10

The surprise of the morning was Brazilian drama I’m Still Here making the cut. I had A Real Pain instead. As has been discussed frequently on the blog, this is an uncharacteristically open BP field with several winner possibilities. Readers know that I’ve had The Brutalist listed in 1st and I see no reason to change that, but Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave (to a lesser degree… we’ll get to that), Pérez, and maybe Wicked loom.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

How I Did: 4/5

DGA nominee Mangold is in the quintet over Edward Berger (Conclave). The latter has his second significant snub just two years after being left off for All Quiet on the Western Front. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t emerge as the BP victor, Corbet is the frontrunner. I think Conclave‘s BP chances took a hit with Berger missing.

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

How I Did: 5/5

The narrative for Moore might be too enticing for the Academy to ignore, but I’m beginning to wonder if Torres is a bigger threat than even Madison to upset. I’ll note that all nominees are from BP contenders.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalmaet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

The showdown should come down to Brody v. Chalamet.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

How I Did: 5/5

Like Actress, all nominees hail from BP hopefuls with Grande v. Saldaña anticipated to be the storyline.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

How I Did: 5/5

Culkin is out front, but it’s worth noting that A Real Pain missed BP. Does this open the door for Norton or Pearce?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Anora is expected to shine.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

How I Did: 5/5

This is where Conclave is expected to shine.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

How I Did: 3/5

After those acting and screenplay runs, my predictions come back down to Earth. My alternate Flow and Needle are in over Kneecap and Vermiglio. Despite I’m Still Here being an unanticipated addition to BP, Pérez should receive this.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 5/5

This was probably the race that all prognosticators nailed as this was an easy quintet to project. Flow vs. The Wild Robot.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane

How I Did: 3/5

Black Box Diaries and my alternate Soundtrack are in with Daughters (a surprising snub) and Will & Harper out. The Doc branch can hard to figure out though No Other Land is racking up early precursor awards.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu

How I Did: 3/5

My alternate Pérez and Maria (in its sole nom) are in over A Complete Unknown and Conclave. This is probably going to The Brutalist.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

Conclave (which was my runner-up) makes it in over Dune: Part Two. It should be noted that Dune‘s 5 nominations is certainly on the lower end of its expected range. Wicked is the frontrunner.

BEST FILM EDITING

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked

How I Did: 3/5

I went with an upset by leaving off my alternate Anora, but it’s in and so is Wicked over A Complete Unknown and Dune. This is a tricky race to figure out and, frankly, I’m not ready to designate a favorite quite yet.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This is where The Substance could materialize.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

It’s Wicked and Wild (my alt) over Challengers (which was blanked this morning) and Nosferatu. This could be a Brutalist prize.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

How I Did: 3/5

“Like a Bird” and Sir Elton’s ditty are part of the mix over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper and “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, which was expected to make it. The Pérez tracks are out front with “El Mal” as your Globe victor.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

How I Did: 5/5

This could be a Wicked win.

BEST SOUND

A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Wild Robot

How I Did: 3/5

My alt Pérez and The Wild Robot (in a category where few were predicting it) instead of Blitz and Gladiator II (which had a poor morning with only Costume Design). While Dune could take this, I question whether the subpar five noms makes it vulnerable to others.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Wicked and not Twisters represented here. The same logic from Sound applies to VE with Dune. Could Alien or Better Man pose a threat?

And there you have it, folks! It’s now time to start my Case Of posts. Readers of the blog may recall that I do individual posts for the 10 BP nominees and the 25 director and acting hopefuls where I lay out the case for and against their winning. Those will be up in short order.

Here’s how the nominations tallies played out:

13 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Wicked

8 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

6 Nominations

Anora

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, The Substance

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

I’m Still Here, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Flow, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus. Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Different Man, Elton John: Never Too Late, The Girl with the Needle, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

97th Academy Awards: FINAL Oscar Nomination Predictions

And it has come down to this. On Thursday, the Academy (barring no further delays) is expected to unveil the contenders for their 97th ceremony. For nearly a year, I’ve been speculating about who and what will be nominated. Over the past few days, I penned deep dives on Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Now it’s time for the speculation to end.

Thank you, blog readers, for perusing dozens and dozens of forecast updates and individual posts on the pictures in contention.

Let’s get to it! Here are my predictions for all feature-film categories with a runner-up named in each.

BEST PICTURE

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

A Real Pain

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Sing Sing

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Runner-Up: Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Daniel Craig, Queer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariane Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Runner-Up: Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Runner-Up: All We Imagine as Light

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio

Runner-Up: Flow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Runner-Up: Moana 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Daughters

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Sugarcane

Will & Harper

Runner-Up: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Conclave

BEST FILM EDITING

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: Anora

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Runner-Up: Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

Runner-Up: The Wild Robot

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

Runner-Up: “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Runner-Up: Gladiator II

BEST SOUND

Blitz

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Wicked

Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Twisters

Runner-Up: Wicked

That works out to a final tally of these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Conclave

7 Nominations

Dune: Part Two, Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, Nosferatu, The Substance

3 Nominations

A Real Pain

2 Nominations

The Apprentice, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, Porcelain War, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio

I will, of course, have reaction up Thursday with how I did and some commentary.

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