Oscar Predictions: Jockey

Even though it premiered at Sundance all the way back in January, Jockey is finally attempting to ride into Oscar contention. The drama from director Clint Bentley casts Clifton Collins, Jr. as an aging equestrian in the sunset of his career. After its festival bow, the pic received pleasing reviews to the tune of a 96% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

All the buzz, though its been fairly quiet for awhile, has been with Collins and a possible Best Actor nod. He’s never achieved Academy attention despite an acclaimed supporting turn in 2005’s Capote and other notable film and TV roles. Some critics certainly say he’s worthy of a nomination.

However, he looks to be a long shot. Sony Pictures Classics, which picked up distribution rights, is releasing it December 29th. The first trailer came out just today. The studio will need to mount a spirited campaign for Collins to make the final five. We can generally assume two spots are taken: Will Smith in King Richard and Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog. There’s plenty of other viable hopefuls. It doesn’t help Collins that two of them (Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! and Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up) have helped their cases in recent days. This is in addition to Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), and more.

Bottom line: Collins needs some precursor love to show up at the Oscars. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t see him placing. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Watch: Pieces of a Woman

Certain Netflix viewers know Vanessa Kirby best as Princess Margaret on the hit series The Crown. Action fans recognize her from her participation in two huge franchises with her roles in Mission: Impossible – Fallout and Hobbs & Shaw. Now Kirby may get on the radar of awards voters with Pieces of a Woman, which has screened at the Venice Film Festival.

The drama comes from Hungarian filmmaker Kornel Mundruczo, perhaps best known stateside for his 2014 feature White God. Kirby stars alongside Shia LaBeouf as an expectant couple whose joy turns to sorrow as a result of a home birth situation. Costars include Ellen Burstyn, Jimmie Fails, and Molly Parker. The most high profile name is its executive producer Martin Scorsese.

Critics have been careful not to let loose many spoilers in their reviews, but the Rotten Tomatoes score is a solid 88%. The write-ups seem to agree that this is a breakout role for Kirby. As to whether she can contend for a nod, questions abound. Will Woman pick up domestic distribution by the submission deadline? Is this subject matter too grim for this to pick up steam with the Academy? There’s also the matter of The World to Come. It also features the actress, screened at Venice, and is also picking up some chatter (it will be my next Oscar Watch post).

Bottom line: Kirby has entered the mix in Venice, but a lot of uncertainty surrounds her potential inclusion. I would also add that Burstyn could potentially get mentions in Supporting Actress though it’s feasible that Kirby will get the bulk of attention. Burstyn is, of course, a legendary performer who’s already won an Oscar (for 1974’s Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore) and received five other nominations. Her previous nod came 20 years ago for Requiem for a Dream. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…