Oscar Predictions: Kokuho

Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.

The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.

That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Monster

If not for Roma, Hirokazu Kore-eda’s 2018 family drama Shoplifters likely would’ve been your International Feature Film winner at the Oscars. It started its potential run at the Cannes Film Festival where it took the Palme d’Or. The Japanese filmmaker is back in competition and there’s familial conflict to witness in Monster. The cast includes Sakura Andõ, Eita Nagayama, Soya Kurokawa, Hinata Hiiragi, and Mitsuki Takahata.

While the smattering of early reviews come with recommendations (evidenced by the 100% Rotten Tomatoes score), the reaction is not near Shoplifters territory. Kore-eda’s follow-ups to that acclaimed effort (The Truth and last year’s Broker) failed to gain much awards traction.

If Japan chooses to select Monster as their IFF competitor, I wouldn’t discount its chances to make the cut. Yet that’s nowhere near a guarantee like the inclusion of Shoplifters was. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…