Some Oscar categories may have become more solidified (Supporting Actor) while others remain unsettled (Actor and Supporting Actor and perhaps Best Picture) courtesy of tonight’s 32nd Actor Awards. Formerly known as SAG, Kristen Bell returned to host the Netflix aired ceremony where Sinners remained a viable alternative to One Battle After Another for Best Picture in two weeks.
It was the only film to take 2 prizes as I correctly called it for Best Ensemble. Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale did take an acting honor, but not the one I forecasted. In Best Actor, Michael B. Jordan is the winner over Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and this opens up the real possibility of him grabbing the Oscar. After Robert Aramayo (I Swear) took BAFTA, Chalamet is looking truly vulnerable.
On a night where I went 4 for 6, the other miss was projecting BAFTA victor Wunmi Mosaku’s work in Sinners for Supporting Actress. Instead the Screen Actors Guild went with Critics Choice winner Amy Madigan in Weapons. That race is legit looking like an open contest between Madigan (who now has 2 key precursors) and Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another).
Battle‘s Sean Penn is your Supporting Actor honoree and he’s grabbed 2 trophies in a row (BAFTA). I wouldn’t want to bet against him on Oscar night for what would be a third gold statue.
Jessie Buckley’s sweep continued in Best Actress for Hamnet. With all preceding ceremonies going her way, she is unquestionably the easiest acting derby to predict for the Academy.
In the Stunt Ensemble race, the voters predictably went with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
From a pure precursor standpoint, Battle has won top honors at the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. That mix is hard to deny. Yet late breaking momentum certainly makes Sinners the easy runner-up and a threat to be the Academy’s BP.
Stay tuned to the blog for final Oscar predictions in a few days!
The ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards is now the Actor Awards and the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs Sunday, March 1st. Kristen Bell returns to host a show that is tough to predict, especially in the supporting fields where no frontrunner has emerged via the precursors. Will the Screen Actors Guild help make it clearer or muddy it up even more?
Let’s walk through the six movie races with my thoughts and a winner and runner-up projection. I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with initial thoughts and how I did.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Over the past 10 years, this ensemble award has matched the Academy’s Best Picture half the time (Spotlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer). I would definitely say the two pics with a shot to win are Battle and Sinners, the two BP favorites. While the former may have an edge with the Academy, my hunch is that SAG goes with Ryan Coogler’s sprawling cast.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
This category has matched Oscar 6 out the last 10 years. Actress is the only competition where the possibility of a sweep is still open. Jessie Buckley has triumphed everywhere else and I see no compelling reason why this guild would change that.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
The idea of a Chalamet sweep was halted when BAFTA unexpectedly rolled with Robert Aramayo in I Swear (who isn’t nominated here or at the Oscars). My hesitation to pick Chalamet has less to do with that and more to do with the fact he won SAG Actor last year for A Complete Unknown. I could see Hawke taking this prize for his showy role or the voters selecting Jordan. Ultimately I’m not pulling the trigger on the upset, but don’t discount the possibility. There is a 7 for 10 Actor/Oscar match over the past decade.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ugh… this is a tough one. There is no consistency among the precursors – Critics Choice went with Madigan, the Globes honored Taylor, and BAFTA picked Mosaku. One could certainly argue that Mosaku has the momentum and that if Sinners takes Best Ensemble, it increases the chances of a solo acting victory. Taylor could solidify her status as Oscar favorite with this award. This is essentially a three-way coin flip. Madigan could certainly emerge as this branch has shown the ability to honor the horror genre in a way the Academy doesn’t (see Demi Moore last year for The Substance). My gut says Sinners gets that one solo prize though I cannot stress enough that I almost went with Taylor. There is a 9 for 10 match with this branch and Oscar since 2015.
WINNER: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
There’s a 9 for 10 match here as well and this is just as wide open as Supporting Actress. Critics Choice called Elordi as their winner, Globes picked Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (not nominated here), and BAFTA went with Sean Penn. In this case, I am going with the BAFTA momentum though his costar del Toro might pose the realest threat.
WINNER: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Tom Cruise’s franchise is known for stunts so I wouldn’t bet against it.
It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.
So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)
14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The President’s Cake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)
10. DemonSlayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)
Bst Cinematography
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Drive” from F1
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Hedda
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilties:
6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.
That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.
I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another
Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actress – Drama
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor – Drama
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)
It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.
WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.
WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.
WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.
WINNER: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Animated Motion Picture
Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.
WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Original Score
F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,
WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?
And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons
Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).
I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.
Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.
That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:
7 Nominations
One Battle After Another
5 Nominations
Sinners
3 Nominatons
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme
2 Nominations
Bugonia
1 Nomination
Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…
The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.
Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:
5 Nominations
One Battle After Another
4 Nominations
Sentimental Value
3 Nominations
Sinners, Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
1 Nomination
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons
This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.
What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.
Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
See above
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
See above
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.
Winner: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: No Other Choice
Best Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.
Winner: The Naked Gun
Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.
Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners
Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Sinners with Battle right behind.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Editing
Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: F1
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.
Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.
Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Runner-Up: F1
Best Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
5 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons
Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!
This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.
We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordanin Sinners.
On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.
It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.
The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.
Let’s take a look at all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)
9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Boys Go to Jupiter
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Blue Moon
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
28 Years Later
Weapons
Wolf Man
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
The Testament of Ann Lee
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Mickey 17
How to Train Your Dragon
And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).
One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.
At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?
My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.
In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)
9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Lost in Starlight
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Deaf President Now!
Cutting Through Rocks
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Bugonia
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
8 Nominations
Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
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