Tag: Miles Teller

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 29th Edition

It’s my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories coming your way and there has been some news since last Thursday. It was officially confirmed that Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence will be released in December in time for awards consideration (maybe we’ll finally get a trailer soon!). There were trailers released for some high-profile contenders: Denzel Washington’s Fences and Mike Mills’s 20th Century Women. 

As we do every week, I’ll rank my top 25 contenders for Best Picture along with top 15 for the directing, acting, and screenplay races (you can also see the movement from the previous week’s ranking to now).

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Silence  (PR: 4)

4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

5. Lion (PR: 7)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

7. Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Loving (PR: 8)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Jackie (PR: 11)

11. Arrival (PR: 12)

12. Sully (PR: 13)

13. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

14. Hell or High Water (PR: 16)

15. Live by Night (PR: 14)

16. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 15)

17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 19)

18. 20th Century Women (PR: 17)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 21)

20. Passengers (PR: 25)

21. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

22. The Founder (PR: 22)

23. Allied (PR: 18)

24. The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

25. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 23)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)

7. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

11. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

12. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 9)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Robert Zemeckis, Allied

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)

5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 10)

10. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 12)

11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)

13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 8)

14. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)

11. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

12. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Sally Field, My Name is Doris (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Una

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 2)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 6)

7. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

9. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 10)

10. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

11. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 13)

13. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)

14. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

4. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 7)

8. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 11)

10. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 8)

11. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 9)

12. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 10)

14. Sienna Miller, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La Land Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

8. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

10. The Lobster (PR: 8)

11. Zootopia (PR: 11)

12. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

13. Gold (PR: 12)

14. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Collateral Beauty

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Lion (PR: 4)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 7)

8. Elle (PR: 11)

9. Sully (PR: 8)

10. Love & Friendship (PR: 12)

11. Indignation (PR: 13)

12. The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

13. Live by Night (PR: 9)

14. The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15. A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denial

And that’ll do it for the weekly Oscar predictions! Check back next week, folks…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 22nd Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 4)

3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)

6. Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Lion (PR: 8)

8. Loving (PR: 6)

9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

11. Jackie (PR: 12)

12. Arrival (PR: 10)

13. Sully (PR: 14)

14. Live by Night (PR: 19)

15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)

18. Allied (PR: 17)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)

21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)

22. The Founder (PR: 20)

23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)

24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)

25. Passengers (PR: 18)

Dropped Out:

The Girl on the Train

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)

7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)

9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)

11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)

12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)

13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)

14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)

15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)

4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)

9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)

10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)

15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)

12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)

13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)

14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)

15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sally Hawkins, Maudie

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)

7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)

9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)

11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)

12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)

13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)

15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bill Nighy, Their Finest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)

5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)

8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)

9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)

11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)

12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)

13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)

15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)

10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

11. Zootopia (PR: 10)

12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)

14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Passengers

Miss Sloane

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

7. Arrival (PR: 6)

8. Sully (PR: 8)

9. Live by Night (PR: 12)

10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)

11. Elle (PR: 10)

12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)

13. Indignation (PR: 15)

14. Denial (PR: 13)

15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)

And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories are here for your reading pleasure!

The Toronto Film Festival has ferreted out some would-be contenders, most notably Ewan McGregor’s American Pastoral which debuted to lackluster reviews. I had it at #9 last week for a Best Picture and it’s nowhere to be seen in the Top 25 now.

As I’ll do every week, I’m listing 25 possibilities for Best Picture along with 15 for Director, the Acting Races, and the Screenplay categories. I’m also noting the movement in the rankings among the contenders and what and who has dropped out.

Let’s go to it:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1) La Land Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Silence (PR: 3)

4) Fences (PR: 4)

5) Moonlight (PR: 5)

6) Loving (PR: 6)

7) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

8) Lion (PR: 11)

9) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10) Arrival (PR: 13)

11) Hidden Figures (PR: 15)

12) Jackie (PR: 12)

13) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)

14) Sully (PR: 16)

15) Hell or High Water (PR: 18)

16) 20th Century Women (PR: 14)

17) Allied (PR: 19)

18) Passengers (PR: 17)

19) Live by Night (PR: 25)

20) The Founder (PR: 21)

21) The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)

22) Collateral Beauty (PR: 23)

23) Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

24) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

25) The Jungle Book (PR: 22)

DROPPED OUT:

American Pastoral, Moana, Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)

4) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 5)

5) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)

9) Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 10)

10) Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 11)

11) Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 14)

12) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

14) Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

15) Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Casey Affleck, Manchster by the Sea (PR: 2)

2) Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4) Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 6)

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 8)

7) Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 9)

8) Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 4)

9) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)

10) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield (PR: 11)

12) Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2) Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3) Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 2)

4) Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)

9) Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)

10) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 11)

11) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 14)

12) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)

13) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 12)

14) Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 10)

15) Sally Hawkins, Maudie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

2) Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)

4) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 1)

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 14)

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

9) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 15)

10) Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)

11) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)

12) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: Not Ranked in Supporting)

13) Billy Nighy, Their Finest (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 8)

15) Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

John Legend, La La Land

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)

4) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

5) Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

7) Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)

8) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

9) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 5)

10) Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 14)

11) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 8)

12) Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: Not Ranked)

13) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

14) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 11)

15) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (13)

Dropped Out:

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) La La Land (PR: 3)

2) Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)

3) Moonlight (PR: 2)

4) Loving (PR: 4)

5) Jackie (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

7) Hell or High Water (PR: 7)

8) The Lobster (PR: 8)

9) The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)

10) Zootopia (PR: 11)

11) I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

12) Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 14)

13) Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

14) Passengers (PR: 13)

15) Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Founder

Gold

Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences (PR: 1)

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)

3) Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

4) Silence (PR: 4)

5) Lion (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6) Arrival (PR: 8)

7) Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8) Sully (PR: 12)

9) The Girl on the Train (PR: 10)

10) Elle (PR: 11)

11) Love & Friendship (PR: 9)

12) Live by Night (PR: 13)

13) Denial (PR: 14)

14) The Jungle Book (PR: 15)

15) Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Pastoral

And there you have it, Oscar watchers! I’ll be back with my weekly predictions on September 22nd…

 

 

Todd’s 2016 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 8th Edition

As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.

When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.

Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.

Let’s get right to it, shall we?

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1) La Land Land

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Silence

4) Fences

5) Moonlight

6) Loving

7) Manchester by the Sea

8) Nocturnal Animals

9) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

10) The Birth of a Nation

11) Lion

12) Jackie

13) Arrival

14) 20th Century Women

15) Hidden Figures

16) Sully

17) Passengers

18) Hell or High Water

19) Allied

20) Moana

21) The Founder

22) The Jungle Bok

23) Collateral Beauty

24) Gold

25) Live by Night

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land

2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Martin Scorsese, Silence

4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

5) Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

7) Jeff Nichols, Loving

8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals

9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival

11) Garth Davis, Lion

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures

14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie

15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Denzel Washington, Fences

2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

3) Joel Edgerton, Loving

4) Michael Keaton, The Founder

5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Other Possibilities:

6) Tom Hanks, Sully

7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land

9) Dev Patel, Lion

10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral

13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

14) Andrew Garfield, Silence

15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Emma Stone, La La Land

2) Viola Davis, Fences

3) Natalie Portman, Jackie

4) Ruth Negga, Loving

5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Other Possibilities:

6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle

8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

9) Amy Adams, Arrival

10) Rooney Mara, Una

11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

15) Marion Cotillard, Allied

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

2) Liam Neeson, Silence

3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

5) Stephen Henderson, Fences

Other Possibilities:

6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

10) Timothy Spall, Denial

11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

13) John Legend, La La Land

14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully

15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight

3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Other Possibilities:

6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

9) Nicole Kidman, Lion

10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty

14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars

15) Laura Dern, The Founder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Manchester by the Sea

2) Moonlight

3) La La Land

4) Loving

5) Jackie

Other Possibilities:

6) 20th Century Women

7) Hell or High Water

8) The Lobster

9) The Birth of a Nation

10) The Founder

11) Zootopia

12) Gold

13) Passengers

14) Rules Don’t Apply

15) Allied

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1) Fences

2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

3) Nocturnal Animals

4) Silence

5) American Pastoral

Other Possibilities:

6) Lion

7) Hidden Figures

8) Arrival

9) Love & Friendship

10) The Girl on the Train

11) Elle

12) Sully

13) Live by Night

14) Denial

15) The Jungle Book

And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…

Oscar Watch: Bleed for This

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this weekend and that means a slew of autumn Academy hopefuls are getting their first exposure. My Oscar Watch series continues with Ben Younger’s Bleed for This. This is the true life tale of boxer Vinny Paz (Miles Teller), who defied all odds to make it back to the ring after breaking his neck.

Movies focused on the sweet science have had a history with Oscar voters. 1976’s Rocky came out of nowhere to punch out all competitors. 2004’s Million Dollar Baby also won Picture, as did its director (Clint Eastwood), Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor (Morgan Freeman). 1980’s Raging Bull and 2010’s The Fighter received multiple nods. Just last year, Sylvester Stallone was nominated once again as Mr. Balboa in Creed.

As for the film in question, Bleed for This has received mostly positive notices thus far. However, some have mentioned it borrows plenty of cliches (some from the aforementioned films). It doesn’t appear to be a genuine threat in Picture or Director. Mr. Teller missed out on a nod with 2014’s Whiplash as all attention went to his costar J.K. Simmons in Supporting. The lead actor race looks lighter than usual on paper this year, but he still could face an uphill battle for inclusion. Aaron Eckhart is said to give strong work as his trainer here and he may stand the best chance at recognition (though I’m not currently putting him in).

The Oscar Watch will roll on as further hopefuls are unveiled.

 

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted)  and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn–zOO8LN8

War Dogs Box Office Prediction

Director Todd Phillips brings his comedic sensibilities overseas in War Dogs, opening next weekend. It stars Jonah Hill and Miles Teller in the true life story of two dudes who make it big as arms dealers in Afghanistan. Ana de Armas and Hangover headliner Bradley Cooper are in the supporting cast.

Trailers and TV spots haven’t been shy about advertising that this comes from the Hangover team. Hill is a known commodity in the genre and he could help turnout. A few years back, just the involvement of Phillips would be a major box office pull. In the middle of the first and second Hangover, it even helped Due Date reached a gross of $100 million. Of course, the participation of Robert Downey, Jr. and Zach Galifianakis didn’t hurt. I’m skeptical the director’s name carries as much weight now, especially since his signature franchise ran out of steam.

I suspect War Dogs could have trouble finding a wide audience. War comedies can have a tough road. You can ask Tina Fey and the team behind this spring’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which faltered with only $7.4 million in its debut. Or George Clooney and the makers of 2009’s The Men Who Stare at Goats, which premiered with $12.7 million. This should manage to top that by a bit, but I’ll predict low teens for a lackluster start.

War Dogs opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million

For my Ben-Hur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/ben-hur-box-office-prediction/

For my Kubo and the Two Strings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/10/kubo-and-the-two-strings-box-office-prediction/

The Divergent Series: Allegiant Box Office Prediction

Shailene Woodley and company are back next weekend in The Divergent Series: Allegiant, the third entry in the YA adaptations from author Veronica Roth. The dystopian sci fi pic arrives in the same March slot as its predecessors, 2014’s Divergent and last year’s Insurgent. Director Robert Schwentke is back behind the camera and costars include Theo James, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Naomi Watts, Jeff Daniels, Octavia Spencer, and Zoe Kravitz.

Second installment Insurgent saw a slight dip from the first entry. While Divergent debuted to $54 million and eventually grossed $150M domestic, Insurgent opened at $52 million with an overall $130M tally. Reviews for Allegiant haven’t been kind… it sits at 0% currently on Rotten Tomaotes and I look for its returns to continue diminishing. Even the third and fourth Hunger Games pics saw dips from the first two and this should follow suit.

I’ll say this first Allegiant (the second part arrives in March 2017) will be the first of the series to fall below the $50M mark out of the gate with low to mid 40s being more probable.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant opening weekend prediction: $43.7 million

For my Miracles from Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction

Chronicle director Josh Trank spearheads 20th Century Fox’s reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, some eight years after the last entry in the series. The big question is: how much of a clamoring is there for these heroes return to the silver screen?

Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Kate Mara and Jamie Bell headline the cast in this reported $122 million tentpole that marks the third and final superhero flick of the summer, after Marvel’s Avengers: Age of Ultron and Ant-Man. Fantastic Four has no hope of reaching Ultron numbers and may be lucky to even be in Ant-Man’s territory.

2005’s original Fantastic Four debuted to $56 million on its way to a $154 million domestic gross while its 2007 sequel Rise of the Silver Surfer opened slightly higher with $58 million. The follow-up did end up earning less overall with $134 million. Both premieres are right in line with Ant-Man’s $57 million first take some three weeks ago.

While any major league comic book film should have no problem making over $40 million out of the gate, this one’s ceiling may not be significantly higher. I’m not convinced audiences are overly eager for this series to come back and early word of mouth has been mixed, at best. I don’t see this making what Ant-Man or the first two Four pics made and a debut in the high 40s seems likely.

Fantastic Four opening weekend prediction: $47.7 million

For my prediction on The Gift, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/the-gift-box-office-prediction/

For my Ricki and the Flash prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/31/ricki-and-the-flash-box-office-prediction/

For my Shaun the Sheep Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/01/shaun-the-sheep-movie-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s 15 Most Anticipated 2015 Summer Movies: Nos. 15-11

In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.

Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.

I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

15. Spy

Release Date: June 5

Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.

14. Masterminds

Release Date: August 14

From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.

13. Vacation

Release Date: July 31

Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.

12. Southpaw

Release Date: July 24

Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.

11. Fantastic Four

Released Date: August 7

The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.

And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…