Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).
I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.
Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.
That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:
7 Nominations
One Battle After Another
5 Nominations
Sinners
3 Nominatons
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme
2 Nominations
Bugonia
1 Nomination
Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…
The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.
What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.
Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
See above
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
See above
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.
Winner: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: No Other Choice
Best Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.
Winner: The Naked Gun
Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.
Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners
Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Sinners with Battle right behind.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Editing
Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: F1
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.
Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.
Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Runner-Up: F1
Best Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
5 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons
Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!
The Critics’ Choice Awards revealed their nominees prior to the January 4th airing. It is rightfully seen a decent Oscar bellwether whose Best Picture nominees recently match with around 8 or 9 of the 10 contenders from the Academy. Before I walk through each race with brief commentary (and how I did), I will note that CCA can be unpredictable in how nominees are nominated. Example – nominees in the Best Foreign Language Film, Comedy, and maybe Animated Feature competitions cannot also be up for Best Picture. That’s a newer development that I wasn’t aware of and it helps explain my poor performance in the Comedy derby.
As expected, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners led the way with 17 mentions and One Battle After Another as runner-up with 14. Both are Warner Bros properties. Of course, WB dominated the headlines for a different reason today due to Netflix’s apparent acquisition of the legendary studio.
Frankenstein and Hamnet were next with 11 nods apiece while Wicked: For Good and definitely Avatar: Fire and Ash struggled.
Overall I went 115 for 142 in my picks. Per above, 5 of those 27 misses came in Best Comedy (I’m still sore about it…). I did go 6 for 6 in 6 categories. Let’s go through the various competitions with my quick initial takes, shall we?
Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 9/10
Bugonia (which was my alternate) gets in over Avatar: Fire and Ash which managed just one (obvious) nomination. Get used to hearing this in the awards coverage, but One Battle After Another (OBAA) sure seems like the pic to beat unless precursors drastically shift the narrative.
Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
How I Did: 5/6
My alternate Trier makes the sextet instead of Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident). I was pretty surprised Panahi (who’s picked up precursors) didn’t get in. BP should match Director and that’s good news for Mr. Anderson though Coogler or Zhao could pose threats.
Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 5/6
Seyfried who was, yes, my alternate is in with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) not finding a home in the lineup. This a major miss for Erivo. I was leaning toward taking her out of my Oscar lineup in my next update and this could help solidify that hunch. As for the winner, Actress is generally seen as the easiest of the four acting races to call and it’s for Buckley.
Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
This probably comes down to Chalamet vs. DiCaprio with Moura as a possible spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 6/6
An unpredictable race where I managed to get the nominees right. It’s tough to project Grande taking this with her costar missing. Taylor might be the slight favorite though I wouldn’t discount Madigan.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
How I Did: 5/6
I forecasted a slight upset with Delroy Lindo (Sinners) in and not Elordi, who was (of course) my alternate. Another tough call as either Battle boy is viable but Skarsgård could emerge.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Jay Kelly,Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons
How I Did: 5/6
Sorry, Baby in over It Was Just an Accident in another significant omission. This should be Value vs. Sinners.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
I’ll note that No Other Choice, like international counterpart Accident, had a somewhat ho-hum day. OBAA should be victorious.
Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
How I Did: 4/6
This is where I was unaware Value wouldn’t qualify since it was in the BP ten. It is out along with The Voice of Hind Rajab in favor of Belén and Left-Handed Girl. Accident might win despite the middling performance though Agent is a considerable threat.
Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
How I Did: 4/6
Elio and In Your Dreams over Ne Zha 2 and Scarlet. CCA is unlikely to ignore the massive hit KPop. If they do, they’ll go with massive hit Zootopia 2.
Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
How I Did: 1/6
Yeah… per my frustration above, I didn’t know BP nominees weren’t eligible. That’s why Phoenician is my only correct pick as I had BP contenders Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, and OBAA. The other was Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and it was totally blanked. I’ll lean toward Phoenician but Naked Gun and maybe Friendship could get this.
Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
This is a WB showdown between OBAA and Sinners.
Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
How I Did: 5/6
F1 instead of Marty Supreme (which missed a couple of expected tech nods). This may also be an OBAA vs. Sinners race though Train Dreams could spoil.
Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/6
Hamnet and Hedda in; Marty Supreme and OBAA out with Frankenstein and Wicked as the frontrunners.
Editing
Nominees: A House of Dynamite, F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
How I Did: 5/6
The surprise here is Neighbor, which is seen as a likely nominee and potential Oscar winner for Documentary Feature, getting in (I had No Other Choice instead). Could the Academy notice? As for the probable winner – OBAA.
Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Apparently I know my Hair and Makeup. Note this is the only nod for Machine (sorry Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt). Like Costume Design, Frankenstein and Wicked are win friendliest.
Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 5/6
Another potential Frankenstein/Wicked showdown. I had Avatar and not Fantastic Four.
Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/6
F1 (which had a nice day with 7 noms) and Frankenstein over A House of Dynamite and Bugonia. Think Sinners here or maybe OBAA.
Song
“Drive” from F1; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
How I Did: 4/6
“Drive” and “Clothed” make the musical cut over “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless and “Highest 2 Lowest” from the same titled film. Like in Animated Feature, the voters may go with KPop.
Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
How I Did: 4/6
Sirât and Warfare heard their names called over Avatar and Wicked: For Good (another notable miss). Don’t be surprised if F1 captures this.
Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
How I Did: 6/6 (!)
Tough one but CCA might go with Cruise and company in his franchise finale.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
How I Did: 4/6
Finally, Avatar is nominated! And it will probably win though who knows considering the underwhelming performance. Fantastic Four and Wicked miss with Mission and Sinners in.
Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
How I Did: 4/6
I had Aidan Delbis (Bugonia) and Actress nominee Chase Infiniti (OBAA) in this and not Gorman or Ye. I suspect this is between Caton and Jupe.
Below is the nomination count and I’ll have final predictions up shortly before the ceremony. Keep an eye on the blog this weekend for final Golden Globe predictions (out Monday).
17 Nominations
Sinners
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Frankenstein, Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
F1, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
5 Nominations
Train Dreams
4 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Weapons
3 Nominations
Bugonia
2 Nominations
KPop Demon Hunters, Left-Handed Girl, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât, The Testament of Ann Lee, Warfare
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, A House of Dynamite, Arco, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Ballerina, Belén, Blue Moon, Elio, Eternity, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Friendship, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, In Your Dreams, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Naked Gun, The Perfect Neighbor, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Rental Family, The Smashing Machine, Sorry, Baby, Splitsville, Superman, Zootopia 2
Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.
Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.
Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:
Best Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Weapons
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
The Phoenician Scheme
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate – The Naked Gun
Best Ensemble
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – A House of Dynamite
Best Foreign Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – Left-Handed Girl
Best Animated Film
Arco
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Scarlet
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Editing
A House of Dynamite
F1
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Hair and Makeup
28 Years Later
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hedda
Best Original Score
A House of Dynamite
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Warfare
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ballerina
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Superman
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mickey 17
Best Young Actor/Actress
Everett Blunck, The Plague
Miles Caton, Sinners
Cary Christopher, Weapons
Aidan Delbis, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later
That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:
17 Nominations
Sinners
16 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
2 Nominations
A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Colman Domingo, Michael
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.
The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.
Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.
As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:
Joe Alwyn, Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Brendan Fraser, Pressure
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.
Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.
So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.
One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.
Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.
The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.
Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.
Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.
So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?
Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:
2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)
2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman
2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)
2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog
2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin
I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.
In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.
Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.
If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.
A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.
The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.
Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.
That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).
As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):
Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.
The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).
Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.
Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.
Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).
Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.
Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.
You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)
24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Ballad of a Small Player
La Grazia
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Hikari, Rental Family
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)
15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)
12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)
14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)
15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
The Rivals of Amziah King
Anemone
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ballad of a Small Player
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Late Fame
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
La Grazia
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
Deaf President Now!
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Couture
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Christy
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
How to Train Your Dragon
That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Winner: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.
Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)
23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)
24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, At the Sea
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)
13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ella McKay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)
3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timestamp
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Mother Mary
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2
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