Tag: Michael Douglas

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Last Vegas Box Office Prediction

The four stars of Last Vegas are all Oscar winners who have had long and respectable (for the most part) careers. The question is: can the star power of Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, and Kevin Kline propel this gimmicky sounding exercise to box office success?

You can put me down as highly uncertain. The flexibility on how Last Vegas opens is wide. The pic puts the quartet in a bachelor party setting and The Hangover for senior citizens tag has been thrown around a lot. This is the type of flick that could stall and reach low teens. It could also strike a chord with older audiences and open much bigger than most prognosticators assume – like over $25 million or $30 million. I’m skeptical that Last Vegas reaches those milestones, but I won’t be shocked if it does.

The most sensible prediction is high teens-to low 20s in my view. Still, there’s no doubt that Vegas remains a bit of a question mark to me as neither a $12 million or $32 million debut would totally surprise me.

Last Vegas opening weekend prediction: $19.2 million

For my Ender’s Game opening weekend prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Birds prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/