Oscar Predictions: The Roses

Critics are not generally not showering The Roses with praise ahead of its release over Labor Day weekend. Remaking Danny DeVito’s 1989 dark comedy (itself based on a 1981 novel), Jay Roach directs Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman as feuding spouses. Costars include Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney.

Plenty of reviews say the leads elevate the material. However, Rotten Tomatoes stands at 64% with Metacritic at 59. That’s certainly in the average range and should put it outside of Oscar consideration. I wouldn’t discount the Golden Globes. That’s where the original Roses scored noms in Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and in Actor and Actress in the same genre for Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. Fun fact: it lost all three to Driving Miss Daisy and its headliners Morgan Freeman and Jessica Tandy.

Depending on the level of competition, Cumberbatch and (especially) Colman could sneak into their Globe competitions. Best Motion Picture might be out of reach. My Oscar (and in this case, Globe) prediction posts will continue…

The Roses Box Office Prediction

Remaking Danny DeVito’s dark comedy The War of the Roses 36 years after its release, Jay Roach (the Austin Powers trilogy, Meet the Parents, Meet the Fockers) directs The Roses. Out August 29th, Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman headline as the divorcing title couple played by Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner in 1989. Andy Samberg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney costar.

The Searchlight release faces a thorny release date in the waning summer dog days. Early social word-of-mouth is encouraging. It stands a decent shot at having the highest debut over Labor Day weekend over Caught Stealing and the re-release of Jaws for its 50th anniversary.

That still might only mean higher single digits over its four-day holiday premiere.

The Roses opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million (Friday to Monday projection)

For my Caught Stealing prediction, click here:

For my Jaws 50th Anniversary prediction, click here:

For my The Toxic Avenger Unrated prediction, click here:

The Jigsaw Files: Saw X (2023)

When the surprise is revealed at the end of David Fincher’s The Game, Michael Douglas’s character is reminded that he was drugged and left for dead in Mexico and all that he got was a lousy t-shirt (and a gigantic bill I might add). John Kramer aka Jigsaw (Tobin Bell) can relate in Saw X. And while he doesn’t get a t-shirt, he definitely gets some new games to engineer after his visit to our southern neighbor.

As many franchises do nowadays, this tenth installment of the nearly two decade old series doesn’t require knowledge of the entire canon. You really only need to remember Saw (2004) and its 2005 sequel (they remain the best two of the bunch). To jar those memories, Bell’s Kramer has terminal brain cancer. His civil engineering background allows him to concoct elaborate traps for victims. He doesn’t look at them that way because they’re generally terrible people who’ve wronged him or others. The patient known as Jigsaw doesn’t actually kill them as he gives them opportunities for escape and I suppose personal growth. As we’ve witnessed in nine pictures already, these candidates for redemption frequently fail their tests. One of Jigsaw’s would-be cases is Amanda (Shawnee Smith). She passed her exam back in the original and was revealed to be his apprentice in part II.

With those friendly reminders, Saw X takes place between the happenings of Saw and Saw II. John is freshly diagnosed and given months to live. An acquaintance from a cancer support group tips him to experimental therapy in Mexico run by Norwegian doctor Cecelia Pederson (Synnøve Macody Lund). The eventual surgery yields puzzling results and Jigsaw realizes that the Scandinavian surgeon and her conspirators need his unique form of tutelage. Let the games begin.

Among the flaws of many Saw entries after the second and third ones is they fell all over themselves trying to feature Bell’s Jigsaw in them (or at least his aura). Two of them (Saw VI, Saw 3D) were directed by Kevin Greutert and he returns here. I can understand the strained Jigsaw inclusions as he’s the most compelling character and other villains (or sadistic heroes depending on how you look at it) didn’t match up. Therefore it’s a relief that screenwriters Josh Stolberg and Peter Goldfinger (who penned the inferior immediate predecessor Spiral) find a clever way to make him the star. These movies are dimly lit so the fact that Bell and Smith have aged a few years isn’t much of a distraction. The script also gives Bell the most screen time he’s probably ever had. That’s a plus. Yet Saw X is also quite leisurely paced at two hours. Stretching a Saw saga beyond 90 to 100 minutes is a test of endurance.

Stolberg and Goldfinger were also responsible for Jigsaw in 2017. I found it to be a mostly effective reboot. Saw X is similar in quality. Like Jigsaw, it ebbs somewhat in the third act. It takes a little too long to get where it’s going. We know John and Amanda will set their barbarous traps and that’s delivered occasionally in peak Saw fashion. The straightforward story is far less convoluted than other sequels with their overreliance on flashbacks to bring Bell into the proceedings.

Bell is front and center in this for good reason. He’s got loads of intestinal fortitude to carry forth his mission. So do his captors at one point… you’ll see. This is the tenth pic arriving 19 years after we first met the patient. It belongs in the top half in the rankings and I would diagnose it as a cut above everything after the third one (with the possible exception of Jigsaw).

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Review

According to lore, there are glorious stories of Bill Murray randomly showing up places and elevating an evening’s festivities to a new level. Heck, there’s even a documentary about it. The legend shows up in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and his small part does nothing to level it up. In fact, it seems needlessly random. The Marvel Cinematic Universe has now entered Phase Five. It launches in troubling fashion. This is the 31st MCU pic and I’d rank it #31.

2015’s Ant-Man is one of the weakest links in the Marvel chain, but there were glimpses of the nifty and humorous little heist pic it wanted to be. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Rudd has an effortless charm as the small time crook turned Avenger. 2018’s Ant-Man and the Wasp was an improvement (in the MCU, the follow-ups often do exceed the quality of their predecessors). The third time is far from the charm.

The bulk of the action is set in the Quantum Realm – a gaudy setting that is far from low-key. Before we get there, Rudd’s Scott Lang is on a book tour and generally enjoying the fame garnered from being an Avenger. His home life with Hope/Wasp (Evangeline Lilly) and now 18-year-old daughter Cassie (Kathryn Newton) appears tranquil. Original title heroes and Hope’s parents Hank (Michael Douglas) and Janet (Michelle Pfeiffer) join the domestic bliss. However, cracks big and small emerge. Cassie seems frustrated by her dad’s coasting off of his previous laurels. The cracks under the ground are of more concern when her scientific experiments land the extended family in the subatomic Realm.

Janet spent 30 years (as revealed in the previous movies) in that particular universe. It’s revealed here that she engaged in far more activities than earlier thought. One includes a hinted at tryst with Bill Murray’s character and his superfluous cameo. Of more consequence is her relationship with Kang (Jonathan Majors), who was stuck with her underground for many years. Janet found a way out while he remained. That’s a plus since his full name is Kang the Conqueror and he destroys planets across multiverses as he sees fit. The villain Darren Cross (Corey Stoll) from the first Ant-Man, now shrunk to a smaller size with a gigantic head, partners with our new main baddie. That results in some horrible CG (I think on purpose) in a sequel that employs other garish effects that are not meant to be funny.

The balance of comic sensibilities that worked well in portions of Ant-Man and especially the sequel collides with the ultra serious introduction of Kang. Hour one is sluggish. Hour two finds our heroes defending characters in the Quantum Realm that we’re never properly introduced to. While Pfeiffer’s role is fattened, sometimes Rudd and definitely Lilly feel like supporting players. Newton, taking over the role from Abby Ryder Fortson, struggles with her one-note character. The strongest performance belongs to Majors, but his menacing and seemingly multi-layered nemesis feels out of place in Ant-Man and Ant-Family’s stomping grounds. Kang might turn out to be a worthy villain to the MCU’s Avengers in future installments. The jury is out for now.

Phase Four and the start of Five have been wobbly. Eternals, Thor: Love and Thunder, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have been disappointments and Quantumania reaches the lowest level yet. Underwhelming movies in the MCU are starting to feel like groundhog day and audiences might stop randomly showing up if that persists.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

The MCU hopes for enlarged returns for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania when its debuts Friday. This is the third film in the franchise with Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly as the title heroes with Jonathan Majors making his debut as villainous Kang.

31 pictures into the cinematic universe that began with Iron Man (2008), Marvel’s multi-billion grossing series has seen its share of Oscar nominations. This is particularly true in Visual Effects where 13 features have been up and none have yet to win (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is unlikely to break that stat next month with competition from Avatar: The Way of Water).

None of the MCU’s previous nods belong to Quantumania predecessors Ant-Man (2015) or Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018). Based on reviews today, that stat should also stay intact. While Majors is picking up decent reviews, the pic is currently at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s the second lowest score of any MCU title (Eternals is 47%). By comparison, the original Ant-Man hit 83% and the sequel had 87%. Bottom line: the chances for any awards attention is quite small. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania hopes to score commanding grosses over the long President’s Day weekend starting February 17th. The 31st entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and third in this particular franchise features Paul Rudd and Evangeline Lilly reprising their roles as the title heroes. Michelle Pfeiffer and Michael Douglas are back with Jonathan Majors being introduced as villain Kang the Conqueror. Peyton Reed (who helmed the first two) is back directing. Other cast members include Kathryn Newton, David Dastmalchian, William Jackson Harper, Katy O’Brian, and Bill Murray.

The initial movie in the MCU’s Phase Five (with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Marvels up next), Ant-Man looks to expand on the opening earnings of its predecessors. In the summer of 2015, Ant-Man made $57 million for its start (the second smallest MCU debut with The Incredible Hulk being lowest at $55 million). It ended up with $180 million domestically. Three years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp reached higher with $75 million and an eventual stateside tally of $216 million.

When it comes to the MCU, sequels typically outperform their originals (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was a recent exception to the rule). Thor: Love and Thunder, on the other hand, built upon its three predecessors. Quantumania should follow that trend.

As far as President’s Day weekend, it shouldn’t come close to approaching the record. That was five years ago with Black Panther when it scored $202 million from Friday to Sunday and $242 million when factoring Monday. The runner-up is 2016’s Deadpool with respective three and four-day takes of $132 million and $152 million. Third place belongs to 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey ($85 million Friday to Sunday, $93 million four-day).

This should manage a third place all-time haul. I’ll say the three-day falls a tad short of $100 million and just shy of $110 million with Monday’s inclusion.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania opening weekend prediction: $96.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $109.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey prediction, click here:

The Lost City Review

Coasting on the adequate chemistry of its two leads, The Lost City might stick with you for about as long as the romance paperbacks penned by Sandra Bullock’s character. In other words – not for long but you won’t feel guilty while it lasts. This isn’t a remake of 1984’s Romancing the Stone though it certainly feels thematically similar.

Like Kathleen Turner’s character in that action comedy from nearly four decades ago, Loretta Sage (Bullock) writes steamy love stories while her own existence is a lonely one. She’s recently widowed from her archaeologist husband whose work influenced her novels. After prodding from her determined publisher Beth (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Loretta reluctantly embarks on a book tour alongside Alan (Channing Tatum). He’s the cover model for her bibliography (think Fabio) and he’s known as Dash. His fame eclipses the author and she’s prepared to kill him off and retire to her bathtub with a glass of Chardonnay.

The plan hits a snag when kooky billionaire Abigail Fairfax (Daniel Radcliffe) snags Loretta. He’s convinced she can decipher a code to a lost treasure – make that Lost City – mentioned in one of her books. The locale is a remote one in The Atlantic so Alan pursues her along with the mysterious man of action Jack Trainer (Brad Pitt). Think of him as a bit like Michael Douglas’s lead in Romancing without actually being the lead.

Decked out in a glittery purple onesie that she wouldn’t dare don had she known kidnapping would be involved, what you expect is what you get from Bullock. Same goes for Tatum. Fortunately for us, they’re both better than serviceable. The supporting players elevate the material at times, especially Radcliffe playing against type and Randolph (so good in Dolemite Is My Name) providing solid comic relief.

Directed by brothers Adam and Aaron Nee, The Lost City often feels built from the spare parts of superior vehicles. It never crashes and burns due to the talent involved. Both Loretta and Alan have moments searching for the right words as their plot mandated courtship blossoms. I don’t have to search too hard – this is passable.

**1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: The Lost City

At the Golden Globes honoring the pictures of 1984, Romancing the Stone managed to win the Musical/Comedy race. In doing so, it beat out sturdy competitors like Beverly Hills Cop, Ghostbusters, and Splash. Furthermore, Kathleen Turner took home Best Actress for her performance while costar Michael Douglas wasn’t nominated.

Why am I talking about this comedic adventure from nearly 40 years ago? The Lost City (out March 25th) is being compared to it a lot in the early reviews (which currently sit at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes).

From filmmakers Adam and Aaron Nee, Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum headline with a supporting cast including Brad Pitt (the critics are praising him), Daniel Radcliffe, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Bowen Yang. Here’s the deal… this isn’t really an Oscar Predictions post. I don’t think it’ll be in the running from Academy voters.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a different branch and could be a different story. Depending on the level of competition from future musicals and comedies in 2022, The Lost City‘s early buzz indicates it could make a play in that feature film competition or for Bullock. That would keep those comps to Stone relevant. My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

A Marvel Cinematic Oscar History: Best Actor

I was rewatching Avengers: Endgame over the weekend and it once again struck me how many famous actors are in that thing. I mean… seriously. It’s rather amazing. This got me thinking and yes, current world events may have given me an opportunity to do so:

Just how many performers that have been in Marvel Cinematic Universe entries have won Oscars or been nominated for Oscars? I knew the number would be high, but the answer still astonished me. In fact, you have to back to 1981 for a year where no actor that eventually appeared in the MCU didn’t receive a nomination.

If you count Marvel’s next two pictures (Black Widow, The Eternals) and then count the 23 movies prior that started in 2008 with Iron Man, it encapsulates 110 acting nominations and 20 wins! I am not yet putting Christian Bale in there though he’s rumored to be playing the villain in the fourth Thor flick. I’ll wait for confirmation on that. If you did count Bale, the numbers go to 114 nods and 21 Academy victories.

Due to this research, I’m writing 4 blog posts dedicated to each acting race and we begin with Best Actor:

The leading man category makes up 33 out of the 110 nominations with 6 wins. The victorious gentlemen are as follows:

Jeff Bridges, the main baddie in Iron Man, won in 2009 for Crazy Heart

William Hurt, who appeared in The Incredible Hulk and other MCU titles, took Best Actor in 1985 for Kiss of the Spider Woman

Anthony Hopkins, aka Thor’s Dad, was stage bound in 1991 for his iconic role as Dr. Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs

Ben Kingsley, who sparred with Tony Stark in Iron Man 3, is a 1982 recipient in the title role of Gandhi

Michael Douglas, who appeared in both Ant-Man pics, was Best Actor in 1987 for Wall Street

Forest Whitaker, who costarred in Black Panther, took gold in 2006 for The Last King of Scotland

Aside from the winners, here are the other 27 Actor nods:

Iron Man himself, Robert Downey Jr., for 1992’s Chaplin

Terrence Howard, who was in the first Iron Man, for 2005’s Hustle & Flow

Jeff Bridges scored two additional nominations for 1984’s Starman and 2010’s True Grit

Edward Norton, who was Hulk before Mark Ruffalo, for 1998’s American History X

William Hurt, like fellow winner Bridges, also landed two other nods for 1986’s Children of a Lesser God and 1987’s Broadcast News

Don Cheadle, who replaced Terrence Howard in Iron Man 2 and more, for 2004’s Hotel Rwanda

Mickey Rourke, the villain in Iron Man 2, for 2008’s The Wrestler

Anthony Hopkins, following his Lambs victory, was nominated twice more for 1993’s The Remains of the Day and 1995’s Nixon

Tommy Lee Jones, from Captain America: First Avenger, for 2007’s In the Valley of Elah

Jeremy Renner, aka Hawkeye, for his breakthrough role in 2009’s The Hurt Locker

Robert Redford, who was in Captain America: The Winter Soldier, surprisingly only has one acting nod for 1973’s The Sting. He is, however, a twice nominated director and won in 1980 for Ordinary People 

Bradley Cooper, Rocket in Guardians of the Galaxy, has been nominated thrice with no wins: 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2014’s American Sniper, and 2018’s A Star Is Born

Benedict Cumberbatch, aka Doctor Strange, for 2014’s The Imitation Game

Chiwetel Ejiofor, also in Doctor Strange, for 2013’s 12 Years a Slave

Sylvester Stallone, who popped up in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, for his signature role in 1976’s Rocky

Michael Keaton, the villain in Spider-Man: Homecoming, for 2014’s Birdman

Matt Damon, who had a memorable cameo in Thor: Ragnarok, is twice nominated for 1997’s Good Will Hunting and 2015’s The Martian

Daniel Kaluuya, Black Panther costar, for 2017’s Get Out

Laurence Fishburne, supporting player in Ant-Man and the Wasp, as Ike Turner in 1993’s What’s Love Got to Do With It

Jude Law, from Captain Marvel, for 2003’s Cold Mountain 

Whew. And there you have it. I’ll be back at it shortly with the Best Actress nominees who got their Marvel on!

Daily Streaming Guide: April 1st Edition

Today’s Streaming Guide give us a mid 1980s comedic adventure that was an unexpected  blockbuster at the time and is available via Hulu:

Romancing the Stone was not expected to be a success at the time of its release. From director Robert Zemeckis, Michael Douglas had yet to establish himself as a bankable leading man. The pic casts him as a petty smuggler who assists Kathleen Turner’s romance novelist searching for her kidnapped sister in Colombia. Danny DeVito memorably costars as one of the kidnappers. Critics and audiences alike gave it the stamp of approval.

Stone, influenced by the Indiana Jones series, marked Zemeckis’s first major hit. Many would follow including Back to the Future, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and Forrest Gump. The Douglas/Turner/DeVito trio would reunite for a sequel the next year with the less effective The Jewel of the Nile. They would join forces in 1989 for The War of the Roses, the black comedy directed by DeVito that is also well worth a look.

That does it for today, folks! Until next time…