Oscar Predictions: Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s previous three directorial efforts have either won Best Picture (2017’s The Shape of Water), been nominated for BP (2021’s Nightmare Alley), or won Best Animated Feature (Pinocchio). So it’s no surprise that his passion project – the filmmaker’s version of Frankenstein – is seen as a hopeful in numerous categories at the 98th Academy Awards. The two and a half hour gothic rendering of Mary Shelley’s novel has screened at Venice (with Toronto up next). It hits theaters October 17th in limited fashion before a Netflix streaming start on November 7th. Oscar Isaac is Dr. Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature. Costars include Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, David Bradley, Charles Dance, and Christian Convery.

Reaction from Italy could be described as respectful for what del Toro has accomplished without being overzealous in the praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 73. That’s in the neighborhood of where Nightmare Alley was and Netflix could pull off a BP nod if their campaign is well executed. Of the cast, only Elordi (in supporting) seems like a potential threat for inclusion. I wouldn’t count on del Toro’s direction or adapted screenplay being honored.

Where Frankenstein is expected to pop up is tech derbies like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling (a shoo-in), Production Design (same), Sound, Visual Effects, and Alexandre Desplat’s score. This may not nab the monster haul of all those categories, but it should definitely be noticed in some. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

An homage to the adult entertainment titles and 80s slashers that created the VHS boom of that era, MaXXXine is the third of Ti West’s trilogy that includes X and Pearl from 2022. Mia Goth reprises her role from the former with a supporting cast including Elizabeth Debicki, Moses Sumney, Michelle Monaghan, Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Lily Collins, Giancarlo Esposito, and Kevin Bacon.

Out July 5th, MaXXXine will try keeping pace with its two predecessors. In the spring of 2022, X made $4.3 million out of the gate and just shy of $12 million overall domestically. Pearl was a tad behind with a $3.1 million premiere and just over $10 million total.

These low-budget exercises have critics on their side. The RT score is 87% and, while strong, it’s the lowest of the three. Obviously the potential here is limited, but it might manage the best start to the series in mid single digits.

MaXXXine opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

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Oscar Predictions: MaXXXine

Ti West’s MaXXXine completes a trilogy that started with X in 2022 and continued with Pearl just a few months later that same year. Out July 5th, the pics share critical acclaim with Mia Goth getting a lot of that praise. She headlines (reprising her X role) as an adult film star with this installment set in 1985 Los Angeles. Elizabeth Debicki, Moses Sumney, Michelle Monaghan, Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Lily Collins, Giancarlo Esposito, and Kevin Bacon are in the supporting cast.

Reviews thus far are in range with its predecessors. X had 94%, Pearl‘s was 92%, and MaXXXine is currently sporting 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. While undeniably fresh, some early chatter suggests this is the weakest of the series.

If reaction was saying this was the strongest, Goth could be in the mix for an Actress bid as an acknowledgement of her work in all three. That doesn’t appear to be realistic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Infinity Pool

Brandon Cronenberg has clearly inherited his dad David’s penchant for bizarro blends of sci-fi and horror (see Antiviral and Possessor). His latest is Infinity Pool, which debuts this weekend after a start at Sundance. It’s drawing reviews on the fresh side (87% on Rotten Tomatoes) even though many critics admit audiences may not want to wade into its NC-17 violence. Alexander Skarsgård, Mia Goth (fresh off X and Pearl), and Cleopatra Coleman star.

Papa Cronenberg’s latest Crimes of the Future made it to the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist but didn’t end up making the top 5 this week. I don’t really see anywhere where Pool would make waves with awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Pearl Review

Every place other than home is where our demented dreamer wants to be in Pearl, Ti West’s prequel to X. Whereas the predecessor was set in 1979 and paid loving homage to the grime of 1974’s The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, this basks in the glow of The Wizard of Oz and other Golden Age works. Shot in New Zealand back to back, X and Pearl are vastly different experiences. They do share a setting where unspeakable gore occurs.

They also share Mia Goth. Unlike in X, she inhabits the screen from open to close. You will recall her from X as the elderly tormentor of a porn flick crew shooting on her property (Goth also played a drug addled starlet from the one day shoot that ends prematurely). As just Pearl here, we see her in 1918. The Great War is raging and that’s where her husband Howard is. She’s young, vibrant, and fantasizes of being a starlet herself. Pearl resides at the farm with her no nonsense German speaking mom (Tandi Wright) and sickly father (Matthew Sunderland). Her dreams of becoming a chorus girl are played out in the barn in front of the animals and their little bleating hearts.

We know from X that Pearl’s psychological issues are likely to kick into high gear. West and Goth (who cowrote the screenplay) still manage to take us in unexpected and stimulating directions. When Pearl meets a bohemian projectionist (David Corenswet) working at the local cinema, it arouses her desire to not be in Kansas anymore. **Side note: I don’t believe this is actually set in Kansas, but it could be with all those cornrows.

While Mom vehemently disapproves, Pearl hears of an audition opportunity to join a traveling troupe. We arrive there following family squabbles that lead our title character to see her dance tryout as her only means of escape. X was an ensemble piece. Pearl is a Goth show and she wows. From that aforementioned audition to a dinner table confession with her sister-in-law (Emma Jenkins-Purro, looking as petrified as the audience), this is perhaps the trippiest lead horror performance since Toni Collette’s in fellow A24 fright fest Hereditary. You don’t wanna take your eyes off her, including during the closing credits.

While X and Pearl do indeed share that farmland, I found the latter to be more rewarding overall. The director and lead are having a ball as they inject some darkness into the Technicolor brightness. It usually feels like they are giving the best of what they have.

***1/2 (out of four)

Pearl Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (09/14): I’m revising my estimate up from $2.4 million to $3.4 million.

Shot in secret during the filming of this spring’s horror pic X, Ti West’s prequel Pearl is in theaters Friday. Mia Goth returns in the villainous title role with a supporting cast including David Corenswat, Tandi Wright, and Matthew Sunderland. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival days ago to pleasing reviews (87% on Rotten Tomatoes). That’s just slightly under the meter of its predecessor which nabbed 94%.

While had the critics on its side, its box office performance was so-so. The $4.3 million opening culminated in an overall domestic gross of just under $12 million. While that might seem low, it’s a tidy profit for A24 considering the reported $1 million budget.

I’m sure Pearl wasn’t pricey either, but I suspect this won’t even reach figures. I’ll say between $2-3 million sounds about right.

Pearl opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my The Woman King prediction, click here:

The Woman King Box Office Prediction

For my See How They Run prediction, click here:

See How They Run Box Office Prediction

X Review

We’re used to the virgin in slasher movies. It’s typically a she and she’s usually the one that survives. Ti West’s homage  to that genre and other ones has a little demented fun with that character. There’s not a virgin to be found in X, but there’s one who loses her porn flick virginity.

A prologue clues us in that we’ll see a significant body count in what follows. Set in rural Texas circa 1979, a troupe of six travels to a farmhouse to shoot an adult film. The director RJ (Owen Campbell) fancies it to be a cut above the rest of them (they always do in these pics). His girlfriend Lorraine  (Jenna Ortega) is part of the skeleton crew who isn’t thrilled to be on the shoot. On the flip side, Bobby-Lynne (Brittany Snow) and her bf Jackson Hole (Scott Mescudi) are proud to be starring in the feature titled The Farmer’s Daughters. Mia Goth is Maxine, coke addled and desperate to be a star. She’s dating Wayne (Martin Henderson), executive producer of the big show.

The aforementioned farmhouse is owned by elderly couple Howard (Stephen Ure) and Pearl (played by Goth in heavy old age makeup). With a revivalist evangelical TV program playing on their set, we rightly assume they aren’t fully aware of what kind of shenanigans their guests are filming.  A slow build leads us to discover plenty of secrets about the couple.

is most obviously  a sadistic love letter to 1974’s The Texas Chainsaw Massacre though it telegraphs other influences. It even mentions 1960’s Psycho and how it became a different picture at midpoint. The same can be said here as the one day shoot is completed before a violent night rolls along. Halloween and The Shining get their due as do the cheapie grindhouse and skin flicks of the era it’s set in.

Where deviates a little from the formula is its occasional rumination on aging. Pearl, in particular, is reminded of what she’s lost in her elder state by the youngsters on her property. Her reaction won’t win her (or the script) any acclaim from the AARP. It does, however, give this a slightly unexpected and intriguing dimension.

My reaction was mixed overall. I found the lighting to be almost too dark at times. That said, there’s one scene in particular (you’ll know) where you’ll be glad it is. While is well-made and sometimes clever, its biggest fault is a common one for more high minded horror titles. I didn’t find it overly frightening. Furthermore, for a sendup of a brand where the killings are often violently creative – that’s in surprisingly short supply. The most passionate genre disciples will surely sing X‘s praises. I found myself somewhat less devoted.

**1/2 (out of four)

X Box Office Prediction

Set in 1979 and melding the genres of horror with adult filmmaking, Ti West’s is slated for spots in over 2000 theaters this weekend. The slasher pic (which premiered at South by Southwest days ago) stars Mia Goth, Jenna Ortega (just coming off Scream), Martin Henderson, Brittany Snow, Owen Campbell, and Scott Mescudi (aka Kid Cudi).

Reviews are sharp with a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, I do believe its box office potential is limited. Unlike most recent horror titles, it’s not a sequel/remake/prequel/requel. While A24 materials often receives acclaim, they can struggle at multiplexes.

Despite the hefty screen count, I’ll project this struggles to reach $3 million.

opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: Emma

Emma is the latest adaptation of the 1815 Jane Austen novel and it’s out this weekend in limited release and posting solid numbers. This version stars Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role. She’s best known for her work in the horror genre with The Witch, Split, and Glass. Reviews are praising with a current 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

The film marks the debut of director Autumn de Wilde and arrives at an awfully early frame for awards voters to remember it. One of the last renderings of the book was in 1996 with Gwyneth Paltrow starring. It opened in the summer of that year and nabbed Oscar nods for Costume Design and Score. The former category is certainly a possibility. However, like what came before nearly a quarter century ago, I am skeptical this Emma contends for top of the line races.

On the other hand, it wouldn’t be a surprise for this to be placed in the Musical/Comedy lane at the Golden Globes. We have seen years where the Actress derby there is rather weak (including in 2019 when none of the five nominees managed Academy recognition). That could allow Taylor-Joy to be noticed at the Globes. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Suspiria

Most horror remakes would not warrant an Oscar Watch post. However, when it’s an update of the 1977 Dario Argento cult classic and it’s directed by Luca Guadagnino – we come to the 2018 version of Suspiria.

The film premiered at the Venice Film Festival this weekend and it’s said to be a blend of gore and dance that departs significantly from its source material. Early critical reaction is very mixed and its drawn some comparisons to last year’s mother! That could be a sign that audiences could be baffled by this concoction.

Guadagnino saw his previous work, 2017 Call Me by Your Name, nab a Best Picture nomination. That will not happen here and I don’t expect it to play any role in other high-profile categories, including the performances of Dakota Johnson or Tilda Swinton.

The new Suspiria is said to place a greater emphasis on dance sequences. If there was an Oscar for Best Choreography, this could be a shoo-in. There could be the possibility of recognition in Production Design or for Radiohead lead singer Thom Yorke’s Original Score, but Suspiria is more likely to be a non-factor come Oscar time.

Bottom line: expect Suspiria to get lots of publicity, divide audiences, and generate controversy. Don’t expect awards attention.

The film comes out domestically on October 26. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…