77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!

Oscar Predictions: My Old Ass

Megan Park received critical acclaim for her 2021 directorial debut The Fallout starring Jenna Ortega. Her follow-up is generating the same in Park City at Sundance with My Old Ass. Maisy Stella (best known from TV’s Nashville) stars as a youngster able to communicate with her future self (Aubrey Plaza) about life and love ahead. Maddie Ziegler, Percy Hynes White, and Seth Isaac Johnson costar. Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $15 million for the distribution rights and they plan a theatrical release later this year.

With a 92% RT score, much of the festival buzz (beyond the sale) is centered on Stella. I don’t think the film itself will go far with awards prospects. In fact, the Academy may not sniff it at all. The Golden Globes, on the other hand, could take a look at the lead in Actress (Musical/Comedy). She could be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…