Financed on his own dime for $120 million, legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola brings his passion project Megalopolis to the big screen on September 27th. The sci-fi epic has a sprawling cast to match its budget including Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Laurence Fishburne, Talia Shire, Jason Schwartzman, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.
This is only Coppola’s fourth feature in the 21st century and his first in 13 years (since the little seen Twixt). Cinephiles should have an interest on that fact alone, but there should be struggles for this to have any sort of mainstream breakthrough. When Megalopolis premiered at Cannes, it did so with mixed to negative reactions (the RT score is 52 and Metacritic is 59). It may not help that Coppola was recently subject to news stories about unprofessional behavior on set.
Lionsgate picked up distribution and they’ve had a string of failures in recent weeks including Borderlands and The Crow. This may turn out to be the biggest bomb of all. Tracking is suggesting only mid single digits and I don’t see it getting beyond that.
Megalopolis opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
The unexpected announcement that James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown is releasing in 2024 shakes up my predictions. I have it being nominated in four races. That would include Best Picture (where it replaces The Piano Lesson) and Timothèe Chalamet in Actor as he vaults over The Piano Lesson‘s John David Washington. It was not a great week for Piano as I now have it being solely nominated for Samuel L. Jackson in Supporting Actor. Yet even he drops to second in favor of Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing.
The news is not all positive for that movie. As I hinted at last week, Sing Sing was a very soft frontrunner in BP and A24’s release strategy has been curious. Therefore I am elevating Steve McQueen’s Blitz back to first position with its director atop that category over Dune‘s Denis Villeneuve. Colman Domingo is still in my lead for Actor.
There are two alterations in the supporting fields with Isabella Rossellini returning to Supporting Actress over… you guessed it… Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) returns to my anticipated quintet in Supporting Actor in place of Adam Pearson from A Different Man.
The Venice and Toronto festivals have announced the bulk of their lineups for late August into September. There has also been screening news for New York and London and we have a general idea of some pics likely to play Telluride. The lack of certain titles at those events have caused me to drop some hopefuls. This include The Apprentice, The Collaboration, and Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Should they be confirmed for the 2024 calendar, I’ll obviously readjust.
A quick note on Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. It appears that Julianne Moore is more likely to be in lead Actress with Tilda Swinton in supporting. I’ve made that change though I’ve yet to put either of the past winners in my final five picks.
Of course, this is all completely unknown at press time but you can peruse all my best guesswork below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
16. The End (PR: 19) (+3)
17. Maria (PR: 18) (+1)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Hard Truths (PR: 22) (+2)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 20) (-1)
22. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (-7)
23. A Different Man (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wicked (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
Dídi
His Three Daughters
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne-Jean Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to supporting
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-3)
8. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door – moved to lead
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Elliot Heffernan, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR:5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Challengers (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-3)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-2)
15. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Apprentice
A Different Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Queer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Collaboration
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Caught by the Tides (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Uprising (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emmanuelle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Flow (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Savages (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. No Other Land (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Maria (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Queer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Queer (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (+1)
3. TBD from Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-4)
7. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maria (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Twisters (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mufasa: The Lion King
And that shakes out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
7 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu, Queer
3 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
A Different Man, A Real Pain, Wicked
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.
A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.
We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).
I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).
While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.
You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)
15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)
23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
We Live in Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)
12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15.Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting
Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Count of Monte Cristo
4. Uprising
5. Grand Tour
Other Possibilities:
6. Simon of the Mountain
7. Evil Does Not Exist
8. Emmanuelle
9. Kneecap
10. The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Flow
5. Memoir of a Snail
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2
7. Savages
8. The Most Precious of Cargoes
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
10. Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
8. Gaucho Gaucho
9. Union
10. Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez
7. Conclave
8. Joker: Folie à Deux
9. Queer
10. Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
7. Maria
8. Megalopolis
9. Conclave
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
4. Anora
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
8. Gladiator II
9. Challengers
10. Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Nosferatu
3. A Different Man
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
5. Maria
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. Longlegs
10. Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie à Deux
3. Sing Sing
4. Queer
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Nickel Boys
9. Nosferatu
10. Challengers
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez
2. TBD from Sing Sing
3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. TBD from Moana 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Conclave
9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice
10. Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Blitz
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters
7. Wicked
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Civil War
10. Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
5. Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Blitz
8. Twisters
9. Nosferatu
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked
1 Nomination
The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.
One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.
The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.
In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.
Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.
Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.
As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.
Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.
Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!
My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.
Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.
I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.
In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.
I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)
18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)
19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Hard Truths
SNL 1975
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)
15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)
12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Instead of saying it’s made with spirit, you can accurately say Megalopolis was made with spirits. As in wine because legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola reportedly sold a hefty portion of that business to finance the $120 million production. This is Coppola’s dream project (in development since the late 1970s) and the sci-fi drama influenced by the fall of the Roman Empire has premiered at Cannes. The large cast includes Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Jason Schwartzman, Talia Shire, Grace VanderWaal, Laurence Fishburne, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.
Some reaction from the Riviera is heaping praise on the long gestating picture. There’s plenty more calling it a mess (though a wildly ambitious one) and you can see it in the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
At 85, Coppola is rightfully regarded as one of cinema’s most important figures. That said, for every The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now, there’s some flops and flicks that received middling reviews. His 2011 predecessor Twixt, for example, came and went with scant fanfare.
Despite the high profile surroundings with this unveiling, awards prospects are shaky and that might be generous. I suppose tech races like Production Design or Costume Design could happen, but I think it’s entirely possible the Academy ignores this altogether. One might think Visual Effects is doable yet that aspect is receiving its share of disparagement. The large cast should come up empty-handed too. The three Godfather sagas saw 10 performers get nominated. Based on the write-ups I’ve seen, I don’t see any of the thespians here contending. Same goes for Coppola and his movie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Cinco de Mayo brings the second ranked post for the 97th Academy Awards in the six major races- Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. Obviously we’re early in the process and, at the moment, a lot of speculation is simply on where certain performers will be placed (lead or supporting). Some examples: His Three Daughters from director Azazel Jacobs screened to impressive reviews at Toronto last fall and has been given a plum Netflix streaming start for this autumn. The title characters are played by Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, and Elizabeth Olsen. The studio has a decision to make on which categories the trio are campaigned in. I am currently guesstimating that Lyonne will be lead with the other two in supporting. It is indeed a guesstimate. They could all go supporting. Coon could be an Actress play with the others in supporting. Obviously I’ll adjust as the weeks and months move along as updates are provided.
Then there’s Saoirse Ronan. The four-time nominee and no time winner has two 2024 shots. Her work in The Outrun premiered at Sundance, indicating a definite possibility for a lead Actress nod. She is also in Steve McQueen’s Blitz which sure looks like an awards hopeful on paper. Whether she’s lead or supporting in it remains to be seen. Apple TV might have better luck putting her in Supporting Actress and that’s where I have her. However, we don’t know if that’s workable at press time.
Beyond the thespians, we have head scratchers like Kevin Costner’s western epic Horizon: An American Saga. Make that Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 (slated for late June) and Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (arriving mid-August). Could the Dances with Wolves maker have another chance at Oscar glory? If so, which chapter books its spot on the BP list? I’m speculating that the better chance lies with the second one.
Horizon will first be seen at Cannes and that fest kicks off May 14th. Some other pictures showing there include Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, The Apprentice, Bird, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Emilia Perez, and Anora. When I publish my next update in a couple of weeks, some of them will have reviews and buzz.
Here’s how I have it shaking out now!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Bird (PR: 8) (-1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 19) (+7)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (+3)
16. Megalopolis (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Maria (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Civil War (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
21. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 13) (-9)
23. Dídi (PR: 10) (-13)
24. Hard Truths (PR: 23) (-1)
25. SNL 1975 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Wicked
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-3)
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (E)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sean Wang, Dídi
Alex Garland, Civil War
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+8)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
4. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 3) (-1)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (E)
9. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
Adam Driver, Megalopolis
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
3. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 3) (-7)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 6) (-5)
12. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Perez (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (moved to lead Actress)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Franz Rogowski, Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
9. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Leigh Gill, Blitz (PR: 5) (-7)
13.Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: Not Ranked)
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
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