Tina Fey has established herself as one of the 21st century’s preeminent comedic writers and performers by creating 30 Rock, Mean Girls, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. The Second City alum’s storied career took flight with nine years as head writer on Saturday Night Live during a fruitful period.
It was partly her sharp writing that turned Weekend Update into a must-watch experience after a dull couple of seasons with Colin Quinn (a talented performer who never nailed the Update desk). Her six seasons as a cast member was mostly at Update with Jimmy Fallon as her cohost and then Amy Poehler. Both pairings spun comedic gold.
Two years after her departure, she would make one of the most triumphant returns in the program’s history when fate gave her Sarah Palin as the VP candidate in 2008. It resulted in gigantic ratings and an Emmy for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. There’s simply no doubt that Fey is one of the most important figures in the show’s near half century. She might be on the SNL Mount Rushmore of all contributors when factoring in her behind the scenes contributions. Her on camera work nearly puts her in the top 10 and #11 will be up soon!
Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.
Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).
That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Lisa Frankenstein
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
2. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.
The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.
Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.
Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.
Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.
Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.
The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.
Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 26-28)
As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.
Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).
The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.
Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.
Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.
Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.
The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.
Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.
Here’s my top 5 forecast:
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
4. Migration
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
5. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (January 19-21)
Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.
Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.
Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.
Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.
Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.
Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.
The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.
Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.
The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.
Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.
Here’s how I do see it:
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
2. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (January 12-15)
It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.
The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).
Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.
Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.
Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.
Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.
Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.
Mean Girls, out tomorrow, is based on the Broadway musical based on a movie that’s originally based on a book. In that sense, it’s much like current Oscar contender The Color Purple. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. make their directorial debut with Tina Fey returning to costar and write the screenplay. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Busy Philips, Tim Meadows, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park.
The 2004 pic was a box office and critical success (84% RT) that has endured over the past two decades. Reviews for this aren’t as strong, but they’re decent at 71% on the Tomato meter.
Original Song is the only race where this stands any chance at Academy recognition. I doubt the memory of this version will endure long enough for voters to remember them. Since it’s a musical, the Globes could honor it in Musical/Comedy, but the same logic applies there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.
The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.
If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.
I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.
The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.
And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
8. The Book of Clarence
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (January 5-7)
Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.
As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.
Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.
Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.
Arriving nearly 20 years after its source material was a critical and commercial success, Mean Girls looks to fetch profitable results for Paramount when it debuts January 12th. The musical comedy is based on the Broadway show that resulted from the 2004 film. Tina Fey writes the screenplay (as she did for both preceding projects) and reprises her role from the original (alongside Principal Tim Meadows). New cast members include Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Bijou Philipps, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. are behind the camera for their directorial debuts.
In the spring of 2004, Mean Girls grossed an impressive $86 million domestically and $130 million total worldwide. Its popularity has endured in the following two decades. OG MG’s Lindsay Lohan, Amanda Seyfried, and Lacey Chabert (minus Rachel McAdams) recently reunited for a Walmart ad. Fans of that version and more (especially an anticipated large female audience) should turn out. Once slated for a Paramount+ bow, the studio reportedly changed their minds after encouraging screenings.
That should prove to be a wise move. Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Girls is anticipated to generate a four-day start in at least the mid to possibly high 20s. I think it will that range is about right.
Mean Girls opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Amanda Seyfried’s work as screen star Marion Davies in David Fincher’s Mank is next up for my Case Of posts in the Supporting Actress competition. If you missed the ones focused on Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), and Olivia Colman (The Father), click below:
The former Mean Girl drew career best notices for the Netflix pic and earned her first nomination. Seyfried also picked up nods at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Amanda Seyfried
She did not, however, get a SAG Award mention and that was a surprise. There’s been just two Oscar recipients (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock and Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk) in Supporting Actress who didn’t at least get a SAG nomination. Furthermore, Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) has emerged as the frontrunner.
The Verdict
Upsets have happened in this category, but Seyfried’s chances are slim.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Raci in Sound of Metal…
It’s time for another list on this here blog of mine and Saturday Night Live has been on the mind lately. With The King of Staten Island garnering solid reviews and serving as a launching pad for the film career of current cast member Pete Davidson, I’ve decided to compile my own personal list of top 25 performances from the 45 years of SNL alumni.
And this is sure to be a list where many moviegoers would have their own choices that do not reflect my own. Obviously SNL has a rich history of performers that have made the transition to the big screen and there are lots of notable comedic (and some dramatic) highlights.
A couple of notes before we start with numbers 25-21:
There are couple well-known actors that I chose to leave on the cutting room floor due to their very brief tenures on the show. Ben Stiller was a cast member for only 4 episodes and Laurie Metcalf was a not ready for prime time player for exactly 1 show. That didn’t seem like enough to include them. In short, if you lasted a season or more on SNL, you are eligible.
This list is undeniably dominated by men. That’s just a fact. On the other hand, if I did a list that included TV (which I may after this), you would certainly see a more substantial presence of former female performers. Think Tina Fey, Amy Poehler, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and their acclaimed small screen work.
We have a couple of cinematic legends like Eddie Murphy and Bill Murray and I could have chosen plenty of their roles for inclusion. I tried to limit that, but you will see them make quite an impact in the top 25.
And with that, let’s get to the list!
25. Jan Hooks, Pee Wee’s Big Adventure (1985)
OK, maybe this is cheating a little bit since Ms. Hooks (who was brilliant on SNL) gets about three minutes of screen time in Tim Burton’s team-up with Paul Reubens for his iconic character. Yet her work as the cheery tour guide with the southern drawl is so memorable that I couldn’t leave it off. Six words: “There’s no basement at the Alamo!”
Hader has been one of the most versatile cast members in recent times and has had memorable film roles in Superbad and Trainwreck, among others. I include this horror sequel because he was the undeniable bright spot in an otherwise inferior sequel.
Count me in as one of the ardent defenders of this SNL spin-off featuring Forte doing a feature length version of his idiotic MacGyver like role. MacGruber was a box office flop upon release but has since turned into a deserved cult classic (with a rumored sequel happening).
22. Tina Fey, Mean Girls (2004)
Before her fantastic work on 30 Rock, Fey wrote this hit comedy that has spawned a massive following and a Broadway musical. Her work as a teacher here served as a springboard to an impressive TV and movie career.
21. Billy Crystal, When Harry Met Sally… (1989)
Crystal has certainly had his share of hits, but I’ll give the nod to his romantic leading man role opposite Meg Ryan in Rob Reiner’s blockbuster.
That does it for now, folks! I’ll continue the list with numbers 20-16 in short order…
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