Tag: Matthew Modine

Retribution Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.2M to $2.4M

Liam Neeson’s string of action thrillers continues with Retribution this weekend as he attempts to reverse some recent box office bad luck. Predators director Nimrod Antal is behind the camera with a supporting cast including Noma Dumezweni, Lilly Aspell, Jack Champion, Embeth Davidtz, and Matthew Modine.

The Neeson shoot-em-ups this decade haven’t come close to matching Taken, its sequels, and other hits that followed shortly thereafter. Yet their opening grosses have been remarkably consistent. 2020’s Honest Thief made off with $3.6 million for its start. In 2021, The Marksman hit $3.1 million. In 2022, Blacklight took in $3.5 million while the same year’s Memory made $3.1 million.

I haven’t seen a screen count for this Roadside Attractions effort and that could alter my projection. However, I don’t see any reason why this would make considerably more or less than the aforementioned genre exercises. Perhaps National Cinema Day on Sunday (with ticket prices at $4) will help, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Retribution opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Gran Turismo prediction, click here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction

For my The Hill prediction, click here:

The Hill Box Office Prediction

Sicario: Day of the Soldado Box Office Prediction

Not your traditional summer sequel involving superheroes, dinosaurs or animated characters, Sicario: Day of the Soldado arrives in theaters next weekend and hopes to serve as counter programming to said seasonal blockbusters. The pic is a follow-up to 2015’s Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s critically acclaimed crime thriller that garnered three Oscar nominations. Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (this summer’s reigning sequel king) reprise their roles from the original, though Emily Blunt does not appear (she’s been busy with A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns). New costars include Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Catherine Keener, and Matthew Modine. As for Villeneuve, he’s moved onto Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 and Italian director Stefano Sollima is now on board. The original’s screenwriter, Taylor Sheridan (who also is responsible for Hell or High Water and Wind River), is back penning this sequel.

Sicario opened in the fall of 2015 and its first wide release weekend brought in $12.1 million with an eventual gross of over $46 million domestically (it earned $85 million total worldwide against a reported budget of $30 million). Soldado may manage to slightly outpace that debut number of part 1 and a sequel is apparently already in the works. That premiere could put it in a battle for third place with the weekend’s other newcomers (Uncle Drew) and behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Uncle Drew prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/19/uncle-drew-box-office-prediction/

47 Meters Down Box Office Prediction

Another shark tale swims into theaters next weekend when 47 Meters Down debuts. Johannes Roberts directs the killer shark pic with Mandy Moore, Matthew Modine, and Claire Holt among the human chum.

The horror thriller has experienced an interesting journey to the big screen. Original distributor Dimension Films slated Meters for a VOD premiere in August 2016 before Entertainment Studios stepped in, bought the rights, and decided a theatrical release was in order.

Why the change? One has to surmise that last summer’s success of the The Shallows (perhaps coupled with TV’s Sharknado ratings) helped. Another benefit: star Moore has seen her visibility rise with her hit TV drama “This Is Us”.

How will this translate to its box office potential? 47 Meters Down should certainly rank fourth among the newbies out next weekend – well behind Cars 3, All Eyez on Me, and Rough Night. I’ll predict a floor of about $5 million with a ceiling of $8 million. My gut has it on the lower end of that scale.

47 Meters Down opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my Cars 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/