This Christmas brings an onslaught of five new pictures debuting and we begin with Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. This three hour comedy/drama (it’s the director’s longest film, beating out GoodFellas) stars Marty’s favorite collaborator Leonardo DiCaprio as well as Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey. It’s received positive reviews, has had a robust marketing campaign (especially with its awesome first trailer), and looks poised to make some noise over the holiday season.
Originally scheduled to premiere in mid-November, Wolf was switched to December 25th and it certainly does face more competition. American Hustle (which had a solid $19M debut) is going after the same audience in its second weekend. Still, I expect this to have a healthy debut over its five-day rollout.
Last year, adult-oriented pics Les Miserables and Django Unchained made a killing over their Christmas openings. Miserables earned $67 million over six days (Christmas was a Tuesday last year) while Django took in $64 million. With one less day and more competition, I don’t expect Wolf to go that high but its grosses should still impress. Its long running time means less showings but that should only be a small impediment.
I foresee a five-day debut in the 40s and a Merry Christmas indeed for Scorsese and company.
The Wolf of Wall Street opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $44.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:
Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.
For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
Todd’s Predictions –
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.
Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.
Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.
BEST ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.
BEST ACTRESS
Todd’s Predictions –
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.
Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.
Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.
And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:
PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave
DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Seventeen years ago, Matthew McConaughey burst onto the film scene with a starring role in A Time To Kill, Joel Schumacher’s adaptation of John Grisham’s bestseller. His luck continued into the following year with Steven Spielberg’s Amistad and Robert Zemeckis’s Contact.
After that, things went off the rails a bit as McConaughey headlined one lackluster pic after another. The Newton Boys. EDtv. Two for the Money. And there were too many predictable rom coms (some of which did decent business at the box office): The Wedding Planner, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Failure to Launch, Fool’s Good, and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
The actor’s biggest flop came in 2005 with Sahara, a big budget action spectacle meant to turn McConaughey into the next action star. It failed grossing $68 million domestically against a reported $130 million budget.
For a while, it looked as if McConaughey’s film portfolio would consist of lame rom coms and not much else. In 2011, everything began to turn around with an acclaimed turn in the unexpected hit legal thriller The Lincoln Lawyer. In 2012, McConaughey was lauded for his supporting roles in the indie comedy Bernie and especially Magic Mike, which was a major summer hit.
The actor’s transformation into critical darling has come full circle in 2013 and that’s why he earns a spot in this blog series. First there was Mud, a $10 million budgeted coming of age drama that sits at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has earned $28 million domestically and furthered McConaughey’s status as a performer who suddenly knows how to pick quality material.
It has continued this fall with Dallas Buyer’s Club, where he stars as a drug addicted cowboy in the 1980s who contracts the AIDS virus. McConaughey lost 50 pounds for the part, critics are raving, and chances are that he’s on his way to his first Oscar nomination.
And this Christmas comes a supporting role in The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited film about Wall Street corruption. McConaughey is featured prominently in the pic’s brilliant trailer and this looks to be the actor’s third winner in a row for 2013.
McConaughey has been a terrific example of what happens when a quality actor stops slumming with projects he chooses and goes a different and more fascinating route. In 2013 and beyond, McConaughey is reaping the benefits of his decision. His next project up in 2014: starring in Christopher Nolan’s next feature Interstellar that is sure to be one of the next year’s most anticipated titles. For McConaughey lately, everything has indeed been alright alright.
Part five of my six part blog series focusing on performers with great 2013’s rolls on tomorrow with a comedic actress who broke out in 2011 and solidified her box office clout this year.
Here we are with November arriving and that means it’s time for my third round of predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the six major categories at the Oscars. Let’s break them down by category, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
I am still sticking with my estimate of nine pictures getting recognition – just like the two previous years. The family drama August: Osage County seems to be losing steam so it’s the only pic I’ve taken out. I’ve replaced it with Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. The slot could just as easily go to John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks or Alexander Payne’s Nebraska. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Her, Blue is the Warmest Color, Fruitvale Station, Dallas Buyer’s Club, and Lone Survivor.
The predicted nine:
All is Lost
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron are absolute shoo-ins for nominations. After that, things get complicated. I’ve taken out Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis and replaced them with Paul Greengrass for his work in Captain Phillips. David O. Russell and his efforts in American Hustle remain another prediction. I’m still (somewhat stubbornly) including J.C. Chandor for All is Lost, even though few others have him in. There were simply so many surprises in the Director category last year that I have to include a surprise pick. Other contenders that didn’t make the cut: Martin Scorsese for Wolf of Wall Street, Alexander Payne for Nebraska, Lee Daniels for The Butler, Woody Allen for Blue Jasmine. and John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks.
Predictions:
J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell, American Hustle
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here from a month ago: I’m including Joaquin Phoenix as a somewhat surprise pick for Spike Jonze’s Her and taking out Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. More contenders who missed the five: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street), and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis).
Predictions:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Joaquin Phoenix, Her
Robert Redford, All is Lost
BEST ACTRESS
This is the only category where I have no changes from a month ago. This still seems to be a close race between Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock. I was tempted to put Emma Thompson in for Saving Mr. Banks on here but didn’t feel comfortable taking any of the other five out right now. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Kate Winslet (Labor Day), and Julie Delpy (Before Midnight).
Predictions:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category seems to be the most wide open at press time. The only surefire nominee in my mind is Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave. I’ve taken out the late James Gandolfini for Enough Said and replaced him with Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. Others who didn’t make it but could easily be included later: Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, John Goodman for Inside Llewyn Davis, Matthew McConaughey for Mud (especially if he’s not recognized for Dallas Buyer’s Club in lead Actor), Daniel Bruhl for Rush, Josh Brolin in Labor Day, Jake Gyllenhall in Prisoners, and Harrison Ford in 42.
Predictions:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Many believe this race will come down to Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave vs. Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Both Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County are possible, but I’ve taken Martindale out and replaced her with June Squibb in Nebraska as the only change. Other possible nominees: Sarah Paulson in 12 Years a Slave and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station.
Predictions:
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And there you have it – round 3 is in the books! I’ll be back with round 4 in the coming weeks! Please note: my next round of predictions (around Thanksgiving most likely) will include my first forecast for winners in each race. Stay tuned.
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