Oscar Predictions: Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s previous three directorial efforts have either won Best Picture (2017’s The Shape of Water), been nominated for BP (2021’s Nightmare Alley), or won Best Animated Feature (Pinocchio). So it’s no surprise that his passion project – the filmmaker’s version of Frankenstein – is seen as a hopeful in numerous categories at the 98th Academy Awards. The two and a half hour gothic rendering of Mary Shelley’s novel has screened at Venice (with Toronto up next). It hits theaters October 17th in limited fashion before a Netflix streaming start on November 7th. Oscar Isaac is Dr. Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature. Costars include Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz, Felix Kammerer, Lars Mikkelsen, David Bradley, Charles Dance, and Christian Convery.

Reaction from Italy could be described as respectful for what del Toro has accomplished without being overzealous in the praise. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 73. That’s in the neighborhood of where Nightmare Alley was and Netflix could pull off a BP nod if their campaign is well executed. Of the cast, only Elordi (in supporting) seems like a potential threat for inclusion. I wouldn’t count on del Toro’s direction or adapted screenplay being honored.

Where Frankenstein is expected to pop up is tech derbies like Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling (a shoo-in), Production Design (same), Sound, Visual Effects, and Alexandre Desplat’s score. This may not nab the monster haul of all those categories, but it should definitely be noticed in some. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Mary Shelley

At the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Saudi Arabian director Haifaa al-Mansour premiered Mary Shelley with the hope of generating some solid critical buzz. The period drama casts Elle Fanning in the title role of the English author who brought Frankenstein to life in 1818. Costars include Douglas Booth, Maisie Williams, Ben Hardy, Bel Powley, and Stephen Dillane.

The picture largely landed with a thud. Scheduled for limited release in domestic theaters this Friday, Shelley is currently at just 33% on Rotten Tomatoes. Ms. Fanning is certainly an up and comer who could get her share of awards worthy roles in the future.

However, Mary Shelley isn’t it. Once it screened up north, the reaction assured its Oscar chances aren’t alive.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Victor Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Professor X and Harry Potter in a Frankenstein movie? Sounds like an intriguing proposition as Victor Frankenstein opens over the Thanksgiving holiday. Yet serious competition could keep this concoction (with its reported $90 million budget) from solid earnings.

James McAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe star in the gothic horror flick from director Paul McGuigan, known primarily for TV work on “Sherlock” and “Scandal”, among others. As mentioned, the biggest stumbling block could be adult competition in the form of The Hunger Games and critically acclaimed Creed. 

Radcliffe has done this genre before to positive results as his 2012 pic The Woman in Black debuted to $20 million. However, this was right on the heels of his massive Potter success and it opened in a much less competitive frame. One thought is simply having “Frankenstein” in the title might help a bit, but it didn’t mean much for last year’s I, Frankenstein, which made just $8.6 million for its start.

With a lack of any real buzz going for it, I’ll predict Victor Frankenstein is mostly scared away by the box office fire generated by its competitors.

Victor Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Good Dinosaur prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/18/the-good-dinosaur-box-office-prediction/

For my Creed prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/19/creed-box-office-prediction/