Tag: Marvel Comics

Ant-Man Box Office Prediction

Next Friday, the 12th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is unveiled as Ant-Man makes its debut. Unlike some of the more recent entries like the Avengers and Captain America and Thor sequels, there is uncertainty as to how well this one will perform.

The title character (played by Paul Rudd) is certainly not one of the better known comic book heroes in Marvel lore and the film is said to be more comedic than anything previously contained in the MCU. It’s also said to feel smaller in scale than what we’re used to, especially compared to the gargantuan scope of the Ultron pic from two months ago. With that said, early reviews have been mostly solid and it stands at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics have noted it should be an audience pleaser.

Peyton Reed directs with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly backing up Rudd in the supporting cast. Ant-Man will attempt to bring in both action fans and families as the studio has done with these pictures on an amazingly consistent basis. In some ways, Ant-Man has some similarities to last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy. Its box office prospects was met with skepticism for quite a while with some of the same complaints lobbed at it. Too light, too comedic, not enough name recognition for the property. That’s until Guardians picked up scorching word of mouth prior to its release and the result was it became last summer’s biggest grosser.

It would be rather shocking to see Ant-Man approach the $94 million roll out that Guardians enjoyed. There could be a wide range for how this opens. It could exceed projections and see low to mid 80s or it could compete with 2008’s The Incredible Hulk’s $55 million opening for lowest start to any pic in the MCU.

My gut says the more probable scenario is Ant-Man just managing to outdo the premieres of two other Marvel franchise openers, 2011’s Captain America: The First Avenger and Thor, which both made $65 million out of the gate. That puts my estimate in the low to mid 70s, which would be considered a very nice beginning for this next potential franchise.

Ant-Man opening weekend prediction: $73.3 million

For my Trainwreck prediction, click here:

Trainwreck Box Office Prediction

Big Hero 6 Box Office Prediction

In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar. 

It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.

My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.

Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million

For my prediction on Interstellar, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 8-10

Disney/Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World opened as expected, posting the fourth highest debut of 2013 with $86.1 million. This is right in line with my $85.6M prediction so I’ll give myself a nice pat on the back for this one! Thor benefited from the continued Avengers momentum and the rock solid opening bodes well for next spring’s Captain America sequel.

While I am pleased with my Thor prediction, the same cannot be said for my estimate for About Time, the rom com with Rachel McAdams. I predicted it would earn $12.8 million, but also noted in my post that it could tank. And tank it did with a dismal $5.1 million debut for only 9th place.

As for the rest of the top five, it was Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa second again with $11.3 million (I was right there with $11.2M predicted). The animated Free Birds was in the #3 slot with $11.2 million, just above my $10.4M projection. The all-star comedy Last Vegas was fourth with $11.1 million (I said $11M… pat back again). I was, however, off with the performance of Ender’s Game in its sophomore frame. I predicted the sci-fi pic would hold up reasonably well and make $13.6 million. It dropped to #5 with $10.3M. It’s safe to say this one is now a box office disappointment.

And there’s your results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction post on next weekend’s only newcomer, The Best Man Holiday.