Just as the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) honored Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon as their best of 2023, the National Board of Review followed suit today. Like the Big Apple’s group, it’s not one of the more predictive precursors for Oscar glory. However, there are plenty of nominees solidifying themselves for at least making the cut with each victory.
That logic definitely applies to Killers, which took Best Film, Director, and Actress (Lily Gladstone). It’s pretty much of a lock for inclusion in the Academy’s Best Picture 10. Yet a win is far from guaranteed. I currently have it behind Oppenheimer. The last NBR Film recipient that took BP at the Oscars is 2018’s Green Book. Before that it was 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire.
The other big winner at NBR is The Holdovers. It’s the pick for Actor (Paul Giamatti), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), and Original Screenplay. I’m really beginning to think Randolph is a serious threat to be the gold statue Supporting Actress selection (even though I’ve had her ranked second behind Danielle Brooks from The Color Purple).
Mark Ruffalo is your Supporting Actor for Poor Things while Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse took the Animated prize, Anatomy of a Fall (ineligible for International Feature Film at the Oscars) is the International Film here, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie won Documentary.
It’s actually rare that all four acting recipients from NBR make the Oscar quintet in their respective races. I will say that Gladstone, Giamatti, Randolph, and Ruffalo all stand excellent chances.
Lastly, this Board selects other Top Films beyond their #1. This year the others are (alphabetically) Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. There’s recently been about a 6-7 match correlation with Oscar. Killers is almost certainly in. The same can be said (with some of these more certain that others) for Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Heron and Ferrari are, at best, long shots. The Iron Claw is worth keeping an eye on for a late push.
And please continue to keep an eye on the blog for all speculation as Oscar nominations approach!
The New York Film Critics Circle revealed their best of selections for the year as precursors will be coming fast and furious in the days ahead. Critics from the Big Apple doled out two awards each for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, and Todd Haynes’s May December.
It was Killers that took Best Film while Nolan was your Best Director (Oppenheimer also won Cinematography). Those titles (with Oppenheimer first and Killers second) have been 1-2 in my BP predictions for weeks. Eight of the last ten NYFCC Best Film winners ended up on the Oscar BP list and you can expect that trend to continue here.
In Best Actress, Lily Gladstone (Flower Moon) was the pick as she should make the Academy’s quintet in a competitive field. As for Best Actor, New York made a surprise selection in Franz Rogowski for Passages. While the picture drew acclaim as did the performance, he is not expected to be a factor in the Oscar derby. If more critics prizes come, who knows? But it’s doubtful.
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, widely expected to be a factor in Supporting Actress, was successful here for her work in The Holdovers. In Supporting Actor, Charles Melton is now 2 for 2 with Gotham and NYFCC trophies. His inclusion at the Oscars is looking more and more solidified. The Supporting Actor race recipient here has made the Academy’s quintet nine out of the last ten years (more than any other major competition).
A week after taking Best Feature at Gotham, Celine Song’s Past Lives was named Best First Film as its slot in the Oscar BP lineup is looking fairly safe.
May December, in addition to Melton, took Best Screenplay (I have it currently in fifth for Original Screenplay).
In what could be a seesaw battle for critics prizes, The Boy and the Heron was the Animated Film victor over Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Anatomy of a Fall, despite not being France’s selection for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is New York’s winner. I have it nabbing a BP spot at the moment, but it’s a question mark.
For Non-Fiction Film, this branch went with the four-hour culinary doc Menus-Plaisirs-Les Troisgros. It has not been on my radar screen for Academy attention.
As for contenders that received no love, NY didn’t give any hardware to Poor Things, Maestro, or The Zone of Interest.
Keep an eye on this blog for all the Oscar precursor activity!
As November comes to a close, my updated Oscar predictions reflect one change in Best Picture as Anatomy of a Fall is back in with American Fiction out. Truth be told, I keep going back and forth on which film misses between Fall, Fiction, and The Zone of Interest at press time.
We also have a revolving door in the five spot in Supporting Actress and, for the first time, I’m going with a surprise pick in Rachel McAdams for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
The rest of the major races stay intact though I now have Oppenheimer leading in noms overall over Poor Things (which I had ahead in mid November). In fact, Poor Things now ranks third in the tally behind Killers of the Flower Moon.
You can read all the movement below as we approach December with all kinds of precursor indications coming our way!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Fair Play
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (-1)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tótem (PR: Not Ranked)
10. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Monk and the Gun
The Peasants
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Every Body (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Deepest Breath
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chevalier (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Air (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Barbie (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Killer (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nyad (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-5)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Carmen
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Ferrari (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (E)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
11 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, The Eternal Memory, Ferrari, Four Daughters, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge, Wish
It has been a lengthy three weeks since my last Oscar predictions and there’s developments to discuss. One of the final major awards puzzle pieces held its first screenings this week in The Color Purple. The musical based on the play that is based on the movie that is based on the novel has drawn encouraging reactions thus far. In fact, they’re positive enough that I’m glad I’ve never dropped it from my ten BP nominees. And I suspect I’ve made the right call in keeping Danielle Brooks placed at #1 in Supporting Actress for quite some time. Same goes for Taraji P. Henson getting recognized in that category. I also think Fantasia Barrino’s lead performance is a decent (if not slam dunk pick) for the crowded Best Actress race and that Colman Domingo could materialize in Supporting Actor. He may miss the cut and get the sole nod in Actor for Rustin (though the double nominee threat is real). Barrino joins my projected quintet in Actress with Greta Lee (Past Lives) falling by the wayside.
A24 has also screened true life wrestling drama The Iron Claw before its December 22nd bow. Word-of-mouth is also strong for this one. Yet I wonder if A24 will go all in on their campaign. If so, a BP nod is not totally out of the question. It’s listed in my top 15, but at the moment I believe it’s on the outside looking in and I have it listed nowhere else as a possibility.
Napoleon falls out of BP contention due to mixed reaction as does Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor. Ridley Scott’s epic could still show up in some tech races. Another Thanksgiving release lessened its chances this week in Disney’s Wish. The animated musical also is garnering so-so buzz. The fact that it’s a Mouse House production could mean it makes the Animated Feature cut. For now, it moves out of the high five.
While it has been a little while since my previous update, Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor have the same nominees (albeit with some movement in the rankings). In Actor, Colman Domingo as Rustin is back in over Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). Sandra Hüller becomes my rare double contender prediction as I now have her in Supporting Actress (taking out Viola Davis in Air).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maestro (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Past Lives (PR: 7) (-2)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Saltburn (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Taste of Things (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Priscilla
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 4) (E)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Peasants (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Carmen (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Asteroid City
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (+2)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (+2)
5. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-4) – **previously listed at #1 as TBD song
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-4)
8. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Maestro (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 6) (E)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)
That adds up to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie, The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
2 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, May December, Priscilla, Rustin
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Four Daughters, The Killer, Napoleon, Nimona, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Teachers’ Lounge
As October closes out, my first predictions in two weeks sees changes with a few of the major categories along with a significant ranking alteration. American Fiction is back in the projected ten for Best Picture with Anatomy of a Fall falling to 11th. Jeffrey Wright from Fiction also gets into the quintet for Actor at the expense of Colman Domingo in Rustin.
Greta Lee returns to the Actress lineup with Margot Robbie (Barbie) out while Viola Davis (Air) is back in the Supporting Actress derby with Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) on the outside looking in. Charles Melton (May December) is in Supporting Actor with Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) now in sixth.
As for that ranking alteration, Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in 1st position in Actor for the first time with Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) now runner-up.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. American Fiction (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13 (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saltburn (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 7) (E)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, Ferrari
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 6) (+2)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Taste of Things (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Origin
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 8) (+2)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Settlers
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “This Wish” from Wish (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Barbie (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ferrari (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wonka (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Poor Things
11 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
9 Nominations
Barbie
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
Past Lives, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
American Fiction, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, American Symphony, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, May December, The Peasants, Perfect Days, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
Based on the hugely popular series of video games, the PG-13 horror flick Five Nights at Freddy’s looks to dominate the Halloween frame. It is the only wide release as October draws to a close and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
There is a wide range of possibility for Freddy’s and I think it is ready for a debut just north of $60 million. That would easily top the rest of the top five combined.
The battle for the runner-up spot will be decided by the respective third and second weekend drops for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon. The former had an understandable mid 6os plummet as Swifties wanted to rush out and see it immediately. Moon hopes for smallish declines in the frames ahead. I have Ms. Swift edging Killers as her concert film enters its third and final outing in multiplexes.
The Exorcist: Believer should be fourth with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie rounding out the top five. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $68.3 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
5. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (October 20-22)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour belonged at #1 again as the record-setting concert experience drew another $33.2 million, a tad under my $35.6 million projection. That gives it a two weekend take of $131 million.
Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon came in at the bottom end of its expected range with $23.2 million. I was more generous at $32.7 million. While not a flop (especially considering it was first slated for an Apple TV streaming start), it is underwhelming considering the awards buzz, Leo star power, and $200 million reported budget. The Oscar hopeful will hope to leg out during November.
The Exorcist: Believer was third with $5.6 million compared to my $6.9 million forecast. The three-week total is a fair $54 million.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie sat in the four spot with $4.4 million (I said $4.7 million) for $56 million after four frames.
Rounding out the top five was a holiday themed re-release of 1993’s The Nightmare Before Christmas on its 30th anniversary. The Tim Burton produced classic added another $4.2 million to its coffers. I failed to put it in the mix.
That took Saw X out of the high five in sixth with $3.6 million (I went with $4.1 million). The four-week gross is $47 million.
Blogger’s Update (10/18): And it’s a big one… by lowering my projection of Killers from $38.7 million to $32.7 million, that puts Eras at #1 for the second weekend in a row.
Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s sixth collaboration faces off against Taylor Swift’s second cinematic touring weekend as Oscar hopeful Killers of the Flower Moon blossoms on Friday. It could shape up to be a close battle for the top spot. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Killers here:
With rave reviews and awards buzz, Moon could fill multiplexes up with adult moviegoers who turned Oppenheimer into a smash hit over the summer. While it won’t reach as high, I believe a low 30s premiere is certainly doable.
Whether that puts it in first is a huge question mark. That’s because the sophomore frame of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is tricky to figure out. The concert doc didn’t reach the lofty expectations that kept rising prior to its start (more on that below). Yet it still scored a massive debut that set every record possible for its genre. The deal that Ms. Swift cut with theaters is a unique one, to say the least. Eras is not playing on Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays. That could certainly increase the demand during the second weekend. However, it probably goes without saying that its gross is likely to be front loaded due to her fans rushing out to see it (a whole bunch of its business came from presales). I’ll be honest. I’m at a loss for how far it dips coming up. I will speculate high 60s to possibly low 70s and that would put it just behind my Killers estimate.
Holdover sequels of the horror and family variety should fill the 3-5 slots as The Exorcist: Believer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Saw X look to post decent holds in the 30s-low 40s range.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $35.6 million
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $32.7 million
3. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 13-15)
It isn’t often that Taylor Swift doesn’t reach the levels of financial success that are anticipated, but it might have been a case of expectations being too sky high. The Eras Tour was projected to top the all-time October weekend record held by Joker at $96 million. I had it doing so with room to spare at $139.6 million. It wasn’t to be as it achieved the second largest debut at $92.8 million. By the way, that triples the previous best concert doc start held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. In other words, it’s still a rather remarkable performance.
The Exorcist: Believer dropped to second with an understandable $10.9 million, a bit above my $9.7 million take. The direct sequel to the 1973 classic sits at $44 million after ten days as it hopes for meager declines as we approach Halloween.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was third with $6.8 million (on pace with my $6.6 million forecast) for $49 million after three weeks.
Saw X reaped the benefit of horror fans looking for a scare. Dropping just 28%, Jigsaw and company took in $5.6 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. Total is $41 million thus far.
The Creator rounded out the top five at $4.3 million (I said $3.5 million) for a three-week tally of just $32 million.
My mid-October Oscar predictions has Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things leading the nominations tally with an impressive 12 apiece!
Poor Things rises partly because I’m putting Willem Dafoe back in my projected Supporting Actor quintet alongside his costar Mark Ruffalo. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) over Viola Davis (Air). This is Cruz’s first appearance in my top five.
Margot Robbie (Barbie) returns to my Actress five with Greta Lee (Past Lives) on the outside looking in. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+3)
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Air (PR: 12) (+1)
12. American Fiction (PR: 1) (-1)
13. Napoleon (PR: 13) (E)
14. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Origin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Barry Koeghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-1)
7. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon
Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. American Fiction (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Promised Land (PR: 10) (+4)
7. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Settlers (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Monk and the Gun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Peasants
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Napoleon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-4)
10. The Creator (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Creator (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Barbie (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Killers of the Flower Moon
That gives us a tally for these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
5 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Wish
1 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, The Taste of Things, The Teachers’ Lounge
After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.
Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).
This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.
Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
Earlier this year, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2007 and 2008 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We begin with the obvious. There’s a quintet of titles that would’ve made the dance because they already did. Martin Scorsese’s The Departed was the first title from the legendary filmmaker to win BP and he also won his only statue for direction. It additionally took home Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing and nabbed Mark Wahlberg a Supporting Actor nod.
The other four contenders were Babel from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, picking up 7 nominations with its sole victory in Original Score. Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima got in for BP, Director, Original Screenplay, and won for Sound Editing. Little Miss Sunshine had two trophies for Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and Original Screenplay. Helen Mirren’s podium trip in Actress for Stephen Frears’s The Queen was the only win in its six mentions.
So what else? Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls managed to underperform on nominations morning and still lead with 8 overall nods. Jennifer Hudson took Supporting Actress and it was honored for its Sound Mixing. Despite it not garnering BP, Director, or a screenplay mention, I think it gets in with an expanded ten.
Same goes for Blood Diamond which went 0 for 5 but scored key noms in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou), and Film Editing.
Todd Field’s Little Children got BP love at Critics Choice and the Globes with Oscar nods for Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Jackie Earle Haley), and Adapted Screenplay. The acclaim probably puts it in.
Paul Greengrass made the final five for his direction of United 93, which also had a Film Editing mention. It makes my cut as well.
As for the 10th slot, options abound. Al Gore’s environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a box office success (especially for the genre) and went 2/2 in its nominations in Documentary Feature and Original Song. I almost picked it to make the ten. Notes on a Scandal received four mentions for its leads Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench and its adapted screenplay and score. You could easily put it in the mix and I wouldn’t argue. Children of Men from Alfonso Cuaron received three noms in Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Clint Eastwood had another WWII epic with Flags of Our Fathers which was up in both sound races. And Borat was a buzzy phenomenon which received an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Yet I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth as my final selection. Even though it lost the Foreign Language Film race to Germany’s The Lives of Others, Guillermo del Toro’s creation was up in six races and won three – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup.
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