And here we go! We are about three weeks removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded one nominee: Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as well as Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. I did not identify Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Ryan Gosling (Barbie) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor.
This premiere post previews a potential showdown of Succession actors Kieran Culkin and Jeremy Strong as well as possible spots for legends like Denzel Washington and Willem Dafoe. There’s also relative unknowns (Leigh Gill, Clarence Maclin) and a pair of Dune thespians (Javier Bardem, Austin Butler). This lineup is admittedly far less star-studded than 2023’s.
Here’s the first snapshot:
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).
Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.
As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…
Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.
Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.
Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Runner-Up: The Holdovers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.
Prediction: American Fiction
Runner-Up: Oppenheimer
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.
Prediction: The Zone of Interest
Runner-Up: Society of the Snow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.
Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Runner-Up: Four Daughters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.
Prediction: Barbie
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
A very easy call for Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.
Prediction: Maestro
Runner-Up: Poor Things
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.
Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.
Prediction: Poor Things
Runner-Up: Barbie
BEST SOUND
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.
Prediction: Oppenheimer
Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.
Prediction: The Creator
Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One
That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.
Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:
8 Wins
Oppenheimer
2 Wins
Barbie
1 Win
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon,Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our fifth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things . Let’s get to it!
Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:
The Kids Are All Right (Supporting Actor, 2010); Foxcatcher (Supporting Actor, 2014); Spotlight (Supporting Actor, 2015)
The Case for Mark Ruffalo:
For his role as a true louse in Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things, Ruffalo notched his fourth bid in Supporting Actor and perhaps voters will feel he’s overdue. He doesn’t have to worry about splitting votes with Willem Dafoe (his costar who was omitted) and he received noms at the Globes and Critics Choice.
The Case Against Mark Ruffalo:
He did not receive mentions at key precursors SAG and BAFTA. His leading lady Emma Stone is receiving the only potential winner buzz. Most importantly, Ruffalo’s fellow Avenger Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has taken all the trophies at preceding ceremonies.
The Verdict:
It’s Iron Man and not Hulk happening here.
My Case Of posts will conclude (!) with Justine Triet’s direction for Anatomy of a Fall…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!
It could be considered the capper for one of the most remarkable comeback stories in Hollywood history. In the mid 90s, Downey Jr.’s career appeared over due to drug abuse and legal woes. By 2008, he was starting run as star of the biggest franchise of all time with the MCU and multiple appearances as Tony Stark in the Iron Man and Avengers series. His role as the scheming AEC Chairman Lewis Strauss in Christopher Nolan’s epic biopic has swept the season thus far at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. SAG is likely to follow suit next weekend. This could be seen as a career achievement prize and his peers are probably eager to give it to him (similar to Jamie Lee Curtis last year in Everything Everywhere All at Once).
The Case Against Robert Downey Jr.:
Frankly, it’s difficult to come up with one. Maybe the voters will look at Supporting Actor as a place to honor Barbie and give it to Ryan Gosling. The same logic could apply to Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things or Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon.
The Verdict:
At this point, anything other than a Downey Jr. victory would be a significant upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Christopher Nolan in Oppenheimer…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos.
The Case for Poor Things:
After The Favourite generated 10 nominations in 2018, Lanthimos’s follow-up bested that by 1 with 11. The multi-genre affair scored the second most nods overall for this year’s ceremony behind Oppenheimer‘s 13. The others are for the direction, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design. Truth be told, it didn’t really miss anywhere (though Willem Dafoe was probably close to getting in for Supporting Actor alongside his costars). It’s been nominated for top honors at key precursors like BAFTA and Critics Choice and won Musical/Comedy (over Barbie) at the Globes.
The Case Against Poor Things:
Poor Things might be a little too out there for even the Academy. More importantly, you have to place it in at least second position (maybe third after The Holdovers) behind strong frontrunner Oppenheimer.
The Verdict:
Just as The Favourite wasn’t, this isn’t the favorite for BP. Like The Favourite and Olivia Colman, it might yield a Best Actress winner in Emma Stone and some tech victories. This might also go home empty-handed.
My Case Of posts will continue with The Zone of Interest…
And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.
I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…
Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 10/10
Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.
Director
Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/5
Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.
Actress
Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 4/5
Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
How I Did: 5/5
Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 3/5
Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
How I Did: 5/5
I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.
Documentary Feature
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
How I Did: 3/5
This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.
Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
How I Did: 4/5
I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.
Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.
Original Song
Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
How I Did: 4/5
Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 5/5
Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.
Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.
Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon
How I Did: 3/5
Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.
All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro
5 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Napoleon
2 Nominations
The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow
1 Nomination
American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.
And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.
The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: The Color Purple
2nd Alternate: Saltburn
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives
2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project
Best Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Barbie
2nd Alternate: El Conde
Best Costume Design
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Napoleon
2nd Alternate: Maestro
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Barbie
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: Society of the Snow
2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter
Best Original Score
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest
2nd Alternate: Asteroid City
Best Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1st Alternate: Poor Things
2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning
And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
Oppenheimer
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
Maestro, The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.
Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.
Film
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.
Director
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
How I Did: 4/6
Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.
Actress
Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)
How I Did: 3/6
More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.
Actor
Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
How I Did: 4/6
Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.
Supporting Actress
Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 5/6
Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.
Supporting Actor
Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
How I Did: 4/6
Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives
How I Did: 4/5
Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.
Casting
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon
How I Did: 2/5
Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.
Animated Feature
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 3/4
As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.
British Film
Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 9/10
My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.
Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer
Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?
How I Did: 1/5
Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.
Film Not in the English Language
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 3/5
Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.
Documentary
Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.
Cinematography
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did 4/5
Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 4/5
Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.
Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is Oppenheimer.
Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
How I Did: 3/5
Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.
Original Score
Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.
Sound
Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
How I Did: 4/5
Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.
Special Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.
That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:
13 Noininations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
9 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
The Holdovers, Maestro
6 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall
5 Nominations
Barbie, Saltburn
4 Nominations
Napoleon
3 Nominations
How to Have Sex, Past Lives
2 Nominations
20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka
I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.
This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.
As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.
Got all that? Let’s get to it!
Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers
Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: How to Have Sex
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Casting
All of Us Strangers
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Saltburn
Alternate: The Holdovers
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Elemental
British Film
All of Us Strangers
How to Have Sex
Napoleon
One Life
Poor Things
Rye Lane
Saltburn
Scrapper
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: The Old Oak
Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer
The End We Start From
How to Have Sex
Polite Society
Rye Lane
Scrapper
Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?
Film Not in English Language
Anatomy of a Fall
The Boy and the Heron
Fallen Leaves
Past Lives
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Society of the Snow
Documentary
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Wham!
Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel
Cinematography
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Maestro
Costume Design
Barbie
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Barbie
Makeup and Hair
Barbie
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Original Score
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Saltburn
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Sound
Ferrari
Maestro
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
Special Visual Effects
The Creator
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:
15 Nominations
Oppenheimer
13 Nominations
Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Barbie
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon
3 Nominations
The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2 Nominations
The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!
Since my last predictions on January 6th, we’ve had a whole lotta activity with Oscar precursors. The Golden Globes aired and bestowed their Best Drama to Oppenheimer and Musical/Comedy to Poor Things (over Barbie). SAG released their nominees with some surprising omissions including Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things), and Charles Melton (May December).
And in perhaps the most unexpected development of all, the PGA Picture nominees included two international features with Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. PGA typically doesn’t honor foreign pics. The 10 movies they ended up nominating have been my Oscar BP ten for weeks. It’s a little scary to predict that the Academy and PGA will match 10/10… but here we are for now.
In Best Actor, Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) each rise a spot to 1-2 with Bradley Cooper (Maestro) sliding from first to third. In Supporting Actor, Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) enters the predicted quintet with Charles Melton (May December) on the outs.
An important note: this is my penultimate forecast for the 96th Academy Awards. My plan is to have final predictions up on Friday or Saturday next week before nomination morning on January 23rd.
Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 5) (E)
6. Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. American Fiction (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Color Purple (PR: 11) (E)
12. May December (PR: 12) (E)
13. Air (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saltburn (PR: 13) (-2)
Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (E)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 8) (E)
9. Zac Efron, The Iron Claw (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 9) (-1)
Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 6) (E)
7. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 9) (+1)
9. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-2)
Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)
9. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 10) (E)
Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Holdovers (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. May December (PR: 4) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Iron Claw (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fair Play (PR: 10) (E)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 4) (E)
5. American Fiction (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Taste of Things (PR: 10) (E)
International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Society of the Snow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Tótem (PR: 7) (E)
8. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Four Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Io Capitano (PR: 8) (-2)
Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
5. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eternal Memory (PR: 5) (-1)
7. American Symphony (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A Still Small Voice (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (PR: 9) (E)
10. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 8) (-2)
Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR:3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+1)
5. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Saltburn (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oppenheimer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Priscilla (PR: 9) (E)
10. Chevalier (PR: 10) (E)
Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Past Lives (PR: 10) (E)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Maestro (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Golda (PR: 4) (E)
5. Society of the Snow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beau Is Afraid (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-1)
Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Zone of Interest (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (E)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Can’t Catch Me Now” from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (-3)
Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Ferrari (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Barbie (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: 10) (E)
Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Godzilla Minus One (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m forecasting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
5 Nominations
The Holdovers,Maestro
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Past Lives
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
The Color Purple, May December, Napoleon, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, El Conde, Elemental, Ferrari, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
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