Tag: Margot Robbie

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 4th Edition

In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.

My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)

18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)

20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)

21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)

22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)

24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)

13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Nia Long, Michael

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Brendan Fraser, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

Oscars: The Case of Ryan Gosling in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our fourth performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Half Nelson (Actor, 2006); La La Land (Actor, 2016)

The Case for Ryan Gosling:

For his third nomination and first in the supporting field, Gosling has been mentioned everywhere that counts (Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics Choice). His show stopping performance of “I’m Just Ken” was a highlight of the year’s biggest blockbuster.

The Case Against Ryan Gosling:

He’s lost all of those precursors to Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. It’s also rare for comedic performances to get victories in any of the acting derbies. Barbie underperformed a tad with omissions for Margot Robbie and director Greta Gerwig (though America Ferrera made the cut).

The Verdict:

I’m just saying Downey Jr. is looking solid for gold. Gosling might be runner-up, but distantly.

My Case Of posts will continue with Martin Scorsese’s direction in Killers of the Flower Moon…

30th SAG Awards Winner Predictions

The 30th SAG Awards air this Saturday and they are rightly viewed as an often reliable barometer for the Oscars, especially in the acting derbies. The biggest prize honors the strongest ensemble and that’s a less reliable match with Best Picture. Over the past 10 ceremonies, the correlation has been 5 out of 10 and that includes the last two shows with CODA and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

On the other hand, it was four for four in Actress, Actor, and the supporting competitions last year. That also holds true for 2021.

Sunday’s program could solidify frontrunner statuses for Actress/Actor hopefuls and further potential sweeps for the supporting players. Let’s walk through all 6 categories with a winner and runner-up selection.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

You have to go back to the second SAG Awards and The Birdcage to find a nominee that wasn’t an Oscar BP nominee so you can cross The Color Purple out immediately. My hunch is this comes down to Barbenheimer. We know that Oppenheimer is the overwhelming favorite for the Academy’s BP. However, Barbie could legitimately pick this up. This is a close call and I wouldn’t totally rule out Fiction. Yet the fact is that Oppenheimer might be strong enough to nab this one in addition to all the other precursors.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

This is where Gladstone could make the Oscar race a nail biter. Stone has taken Critics Choice and BAFTA. If she gets the victory at SAG, she’ll become the easy favorite. Arguably a coin flip, but I’m sensing Stone gets it.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Leading Role. In this race, Cillian Murphy is Emma Stone. Paul Giamatti is Lily Gladstone (except Giamatti took Critics Choice). Murphy could achieve frontrunner status or Giamatti could make it a jump ball. I’m projecting the latter.

Predicted Winner: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Penélope Cruz (Ferrari), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Randolph has been the victor everywhere important and I don’t see SAG interrupting her sweep.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Willem Dafoe (Poor Things), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Read what I said about Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Robert Downey Jr. is Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Nominees: Barbie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

The sequel heavy lineup marks the first nomination for a John Wick pic. Some prognosticators are going with it, but I’m forecasting the Mission series (in its third try) pulls through.

Predicted Winner: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Runner-Up: John Wick: Chapter 4

That means the tally goes like this:

2 Wins

The Holdovers, Oppenheimer

1 Win

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Poor Things

I’ll have a recap up after the show this weekend!

Oscars: The Case of America Ferrera in Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s America Ferrera in Barbie. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for America Ferrera:

Every performer wants that obvious Oscar clip and Ferrera has it playing Gloria as the single ma tells the challenges of being a woman. That speech likely propelled the Globe, SAG, and Emmy winner for TV’s Ugly Betty to her first Academy nod. Alongside fellow nominee Ryan Gosling, she was singled out for plaudits in Greta Gerwig’s billion plus grossing phenomenon. A Critics Choice mention preceded this.

The Case Against America Ferrera:

Ferrera didn’t make the cut at SAG, BAFTA, and the Globes (unlike Gosling) and the acting branch didn’t recognize lead Margot Robbie. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) has won the key precursors so far and stands as the favorite.

The Verdict:

I wouldn’t bet on Ferrera making a speech from the podium on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer…

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Oscars: The Case of Barbie

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered American Fiction and Anatomy of a Fall and you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Our third contestant for BP glory is a little picture called Barbie. Perhaps you’ve heard of it. Let’s get into it.

The Case for Barbie:

If Oscar voters go with the most popular and seen choice, Greta Gerwig’s fantasy dramedy based on the Mattel doll is your selection. The pic became 2023’s largest earner last summer to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion worldwide and $636 million domestically. It landed BP nods at key precursors including SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. In addition to BP, there are seven other nods: Supporting Actress (America Ferrera), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, and 2 possibilities in Original Song (“I’m Just Ken” and “What Was I Made For?”), making it the fourth most nominated feature behind Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Killers of the Flower Moon.

The Case Against Barbie:

Despite the 8 total nominations, there were significant snubs (in case you haven’t read the news this week). Greta Gerwig did not make the quintet in Director and Margot Robbie (despite making all the major precursors) missed in Actress. It is rare (only thrice this century) for a BP recipient to have its filmmaker not even nominated. Barbie didn’t turn up in the final five at BAFTA.

The Verdict:

One could argue that the widely publicized news of Gerwig and Robbie’s exclusions could cause Academy voters to honor it here. I wouldn’t bank on it. Barbie is unlikely to go home empty-handed (victories in Production Design and Original Song are probably happening and Costume Design and Adapted Screenplay are doable). As for BP, Barbie‘s roadblock is the movie it will forever be linked with: Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. They opened the same day, crushed the box office charts together, and coined the Barbenheimer phenomenon. It is Oppenheimer way out in front in the big race.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall

96th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.

I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/10

Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.

Director

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/5

Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.

Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/5

Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/5

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 3/5

Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5

I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.

International Feature Film

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 3/5

This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.

Cinematography

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.

Film Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 4/5

I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.

Original Score

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.

Original Song

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 4/5

Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/5

Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.

Sound

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

How I Did: 3/5

Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.

All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Napoleon

2 Nominations

The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

96th Academy Awards FINAL Nominations Predictions

Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.

And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.

The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Color Purple

2nd Alternate: Saltburn

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

1st Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

2nd Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

1st Alternate: Maestro

2nd Alternate: Air

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Origin

Best International Feature

Fallen Leaves

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

Tótem

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Taste of Things

2nd Alternate: The Teachers’ Lounge

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Suzume

1st Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2nd Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

20 Days in Mariupol

Beyond Utopia

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

1st Alternate: American Symphony

2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Barbie

2nd Alternate: El Conde

Best Costume Design

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Napoleon

2nd Alternate: Maestro

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Barbie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Society of the Snow

2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Best Original Score

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Asteroid City

Best Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…