February 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 looks to top the charts as the weekend’s only significant wide release and stands an excellent shot at doing so. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

I Can Only Imagine 2 Box Office Prediction

The Lionsgate follow-up to the 2018 sleeper hit hopes to build upon the $17 million premiere that its predecessor made. I have it barely doing so though this will likely be more front-loaded than the original. That should be good enough to nab the #1 slot.

That might depend on the sophomore fall of the animated Goat which met and even slightly exceeded expectations over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. I am confident its second weekend dip will be much smaller than that of current champ of Wuthering Heights (more on its performance below). Goat should stay in second with Heights falling to third.

Crime 101 might lose about half its crowd in weekend #2 with Send Help rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (February 13-16)

As anticipated, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi managed to place first. However, I took the over on it and certainly should’ve went under. It opened below forecasts with $32.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $37.5 million when counting Monday. That’s well below my generous respective predictions of $55 million and $62.1 million. With a B Cinemascore grade, look for it to fade rather quickly. I have it declining in the 60% range this weekend.

Goat was runner-up with a $27.2 million 3-day and $35.1 million 4-day. That’s on target and a bit superior than my calls of $26.7 million and $30.4 million (it had a better Monday that I figured). The future looks bright with its A Cinemascore.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth was a decent third at $14.2 million (Fri-Sun) and $16 million over the long frame. The thriller performed in range with my takes of $13.3 million and $15.2 million.

Sam Raimi’s Send Help was fourth after two weeks in 1st with $8.8 million (3-day) and $10.1 million (4-day), ahead of my $7.4 million and $8.2 million projections. The laudable three-week tally is $49 million.

Solo Mio with Kevin James had a sturdy hold in fifth with $6.3 million (3-day) and $7.2 million (4-day). I said $6.9 million and $7.5 million. The two-week total is $17 million.

Two other newcomers performed in line with and below my guesstimates. Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die from Gore Verbinski was 8th with $3.6 million (3-day) and $4.1 million (4-day) and I was right there at $3.5 million and $4 million.

Finally, horror comedy Cold Storage got a chilly reception in 14th with $966k from Fri-Sun and $1.1 million factoring in Monday. I was more hopeful at $1.7 million and $2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 13-16 Box Office Predictions

In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Wuthering Heights Box Office Prediction

Goat Box Office Prediction

Crime 101 Box Office Prediction

Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die Box Office Prediction

Cold Storage Box Office Prediction

Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.

Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.

As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).

Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)

3. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)

4. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)

5. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.

Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.

Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.

Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.

Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.

Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Wuthering Heights

Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.

Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.

Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wuthering Heights Box Office Prediction

Wuthering Heights (stylized as “Wuthering Heights”) looks to have a commanding #1 debut over a crowded President’s Day weekend beginning February 13th. Loosely adapting Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, the tawdry romantic drama marks the third directorial of Emerald Fennel behind Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi headline with a supporting cast including Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell.

This could be seen as Robbie’s first majorly visible role since her 2023 phenomenon Barbie. Last year’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was barely marketed by Sony with poor word-of-mouth and reviews. Elordi has been on viewers’ radar with his Oscar-nominated turn in Netflix’s Frankenstein.

With that star power, familiar source material, and encouraging buzz, I suspect Heights could climb above current forecasts which are already rosy. The shrewdly timed release with Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday could guarantee a large female turnout and plenty may bring their mates along for the journey. I’m going with a three-day in the mid to high 50s and a low 60s four-day

Wuthering Heights opening weekend prediction: $55 million (Friday to Sunday); $62.1 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Goat prediction, click here:

Goat Box Office Prediction

For my Crime 101 prediction, click here:

Crime 101 Box Office Prediction

For my Cold Storage prediction, click here:

Cold Storage Box Office Prediction

For my Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die prediction, click here:

Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die Box Office Prediction

September 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

One Battle After Another Box Office Prediction

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie Box Office Prediction

The Strangers – Chapter 2 Box Office Prediction

Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.

Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.

I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.

The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $27 million

2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

3. The Strangers – Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. Him

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.

Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.

The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.

Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

The fact that A Big Bold Beautiful Journey skipped the recent film festival circuit might have been a clue that the studio was worried about its critical prospects. From acclaimed director Kogonada (Columbus, After Yang), the fantasy romance stars Margot Robbie (in her first major project since Barbie) and Colin Farrell with Kevin Kline and Phoebe Waller-Bridge providing support.

That antenna about it avoiding Telluride or Venice or Toronto appears in tune. Many reviews are calling this a misfire with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 41 Metacritic. Despite some appreciation for technical aspects, the Academy won’t be looking into nominations for this Journey. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 19-21 Box Office Predictions

The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Him Box Office Prediction

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction

The Senior Box Office Prediction

Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.

The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.

As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.

Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.

Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.

Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:

1. Him

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. The Long Walk

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

7. The Senior

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (September 12-14)

Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.

The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.

Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.

Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.

The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).

Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey Box Office Prediction

Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell headline the fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey beginning September 19th. Kogonada, best known for making Columbus and After Yang, directs with a supporting cast including Kevin Kline, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Lily Rabe, Jodie Turner-Smith and Billy Magnussen.

Nearly five years ago, the script by Seth Reiss was featured on the “Black List” of Hollywood’s hottest screenplays not yet produced. Yet with its release less than a week away, buzz for Beautiful is exceedingly quiet. This is even more surprising since it’s Robbie’s first major project since her 2023 box office phenomenon Barbie. I also find it curious that this skipped the film festival circuit of Venice, Telluride and Toronto where this could’ve built word-of-mouth.

That all may spell an inconsequential start in the mid single digits.

A Big Bold Beautiful Journey opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million

For my Him prediction, click here:

Him Box Office Prediction

For my The Senior prediction, click here:

The Senior Box Office Prediction

Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

American Fiction

Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.