Tag: Manga

Knights of the Zodiac Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.

Based on a Japanese manga series that began in the mid 1980s, Knights of the Zodiac hits theaters this Friday. The fantasy adventure is directed by Tomek Bagiński and stars Mackenyu, son of martial arts legend Sonny Chiba. Costars include Famke Janssen, Madison Iseman, Diego Tinoco, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl, and Sean Bean.

With a reported budget of $60 million, Zodiac hopes to make its mark overseas. Its domestic prospects look dim. I haven’t seen an official screen count (and that could alter my projection), but I’d be surprised if this topped $5 million. In fact, it might be lucky to take in half of that.

Knight of the Zodiac opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million

For my Book Club: The Next Chapter prediction, click here:

Book Club: The Next Chapter Box Office Prediction

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village Box Office Prediction

One of the biggest box office surprises of 2021 was the haul of Demon Slayer the Movie: Mugen Train in the spring. While it finished #2 behind Mortal Kombat, the $21 million start and $13k+ per screen average was astonishing.

On March 3rd, the Japanese animated franchise appears again in multiplexes with To the Swordsmith Village. This is not a sequel to the 2021 pic. Haruo Sotozaki, like in Train, conducts the directorial assignment that shows the 10th and 11th episodes of the Toho and Aniplex property.

Distributed stateside by Sony/Crunchyroll, I’ll be frank with this projection. Without a theater count (which I’ve yet to see), this is a highly tricky call to make. Train could have been lightning in a bottle or we may witness another massive over performance with Village. For now I’ll say high single digits since this appears to be a limited release that viewers don’t have to book passage to a multiplex to watch.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Creed III prediction, click here:

Creed III Box Office Prediction

For my Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre prediction, click here:

Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre Box Office Prediction

One Piece Film: Red Box Office Prediction

Having grossed nearly $150 million in Japan and other territories, animated fantasy adventure One Piece Film: Red arrives on November 4th. The 15th feature in the franchise that began in 2000, the Toei Animation title comes from director Gorõ Taniguchi.

This is the same studio that gave us Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero. The former made nearly $10 million in its opening frame in January 2019 while Super Hero swooped to a remarkable $21 million start in August.

One Piece is currently the highest grosser of the year in Japan. Comparisons to Dragon Ball are tricky since the predecessors in this series have not received wide North American distribution. One Piece: Stampede preceded this and made just over $1 million domestically in 2019.

A further complication is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. The aforementioned Super Hero flew to its $20M+ premiere in 3000 venues. I doubt this will reach those numbers. That said, I’ve underestimated this genre before and it seems sensible to project this could debut right above or right below $10 million.

One Piece Film: Red opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my The Banshees of Ininsherin prediction, click here:

The Banshees of Inisherin Box Office Prediction

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero Box Office Prediction

Over three and a half years ago, Dragon Ball Super: Broly significantly exceeded expectations stateside. As summer closes out, the follow-up Super Hero hopes to do the same. The martial arts fantasy from Toei Animation is actually the 21st feature in the long running Japanese franchise. Tetsuro Kodama directs.

The pic already did brisk business in its native country when it opened in June. Over the long MLK frame in 2019, Broly got a kickstart to the weekend with a Wednesday bow. In its first two days of release, it captured $10.4 million with a six-day overall haul of over $22 million.

Hero is not slated for a hump day start nor is it premiering over a holiday. That makes comparisons to Broly a little tricky. There’s no doubt that this genre is extremely front loaded and I certainly see it hitting double digits. It could find itself in a battle for #1 with the Idris Elba headlined survival thriller Beast. Both could be competing for some of the same eyeballs. I’ll project $12-14 million is where this lands and that puts it barely behind where I have Beast at.

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million

For my Beast prediction, click here:

Beast Box Office Prediction

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.

Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.

With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch – Alita: Battle Angel

James Cameron is no stranger to Oscar attention with Titanic winning Best Picture 21 years ago and Avatar picking up a slew of nominations in 2009. In two weeks, he serves as co-writer for Alita: Battle Angel along with Laeta Kologridis. It’s directed by Robert Rodriguez. The pic is based on a well-known series of cyberpunk graphic novels from Japan. Rosa Salazar voices the title character and provides motion capture work for her movements in this mix of live and CG action.

Reviews are out and they’re skewing negative, along with some positive here and there. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 44%. A lot of the critics are particularly picking apart the screenplay and that’s not an uncommon knock on Cameron’s writing.

Alita comes with a reported budget upwards of $200 million and it’s being seen as a potential costly flop stateside (foreign grosses could be a different story). While this clearly won’t contend for major categories in awards season, the state of the art visuals have been praised. And it’s worth noting that Cameron’s directorial efforts Aliens, The Abyss, Terminator 2: Judgment Day, Titanic, and Avatar all won Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.

That said, there’s plenty of eye-popping blockbuster feasts on the schedule in 2019 (Avengers: Endgame and the next Star Wars included). With the possibility of negative buzz enveloping it, this may not even be a slam dunk in that category. In that sense, it could be similar to 2017’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, which also had poor word-of-mouth and missed out in its most obvious slot for recognition. If this manages a nod, the two Sound races are possible as well.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…