Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution hopes to continue a banner year for anime offerings when it hits domestic venues on December 5th. The fantasy effort from manga artist Gege Akutami is a prerelease for season 3 of the Kaisen TV series prior to its output in January.
Distributed via GKIDS stateside, Execution would love to approach the numbers achieved by Jujutsu Kaisen 0 back in March of 2022. Nearly four years ago, that Japanese action tale easily surpassed projections with an $18 million debut in the midst of the pandemic. That opening represented over half of its eventual $33 million take as this genre is typically front loaded.
Execution will be available for home viewing just a month after theatrical availability. That’s different than Kaisen 0 which was not directly part of the TV show. Therefore Execution is not expected to see the high teens haul that we witnessed in 2022 or a similar figure that Chainsaw Man -The Movie: Reze Arc accomplished in October. It could still manage about half of what the aforementioned kicked off with, but I’ll go with a little less.
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
For my Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 prediction, click here:
A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.
Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Endswith Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.
As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.
After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how it see it shaking out:
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.
Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.
Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.
One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.
Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.
Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll look for Chainsaw Man – The Move: Reze Arc to cut impressive grosses when it debuts October 24th. The anime fantasy from Japan serves as a sequel to the first season of the manga TV show from Tatsuki Fujimoto. Tatsuya Yoshihara directs.
In September, the film has performed well in its home country. It managed to knock out Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle after nine weeks atop the charts. That said, it made about $8 million in U.S. dollars compared to Castle‘s start of $37 million in comparable currency.
That same story should play out domestically. While Castle decimated the all-time North American anime opening at $70 million, Chainsaw might manage low double digits or low teens.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.
Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.
I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.
The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. The Strangers – Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
4. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. Him
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.
Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.
The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.
Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.
The generously titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the domestic marketplace starting September 12th. Tracking indicates that it will. Based on the popular Japanese manga series, it the latest installment in a franchise that continues to grow in popularity. A direct sequel to the fourth season of the anime TV series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the Crunchyroll distributed two and a half hour fantasy.
Castle has already dominated the overseas market. In its home country, it stands as the year’s highest grosser and third largest in history. In 2021, Mugen Train started off with $21 million stateside. Two years later, To the Swordsmith Village debuted to just over $10 million which 2024’s To the Hashira Training earned north of $11 million.
Buzz is louder this time around with expectations elevated. At the low end, Castle is anticipated to double the figures of its two predecessors. Some projections have this as high as $70 million plus! That would be an astonishing gross, but this could catch a wave making it possible. I’m going with low to mid 60s for what would be a record shattering beginning for its genre.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle opening weekend prediction: $64.6 million
For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:
Smile 2 looks to make horror fans happy this weekend while the Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh romantic drama We Live in Time debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
Likely building upon the goodwill from its predecessor two years ago, Smile 2 should outpace the $22 million that Smile opened wide with. My mid to high 20s estimate puts it easily out front.
Time is hitting just 1000 venues and I’m projecting mid single digits before it expands even wider on October 25th.
Terrifier 3 got off to a terrific start (more on that below). Projecting its sophomore fall is tricky. I would think the unrated horror threequel might be front loaded, but I’m not sure it drops over 60%. It’s actually theaters so it may only decline around 50% and that’s good for a horror flick of this nature. That should put it in third as I foresee The Wild Robot only easing in the mid 20s and staying in second. A similar meager decrease for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should keep it in the top 5 in its seventh frame. Joker: Folie à Deux may manage fifth place though it should see another calamitous percentage fall. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if Transformers One manages to rise the five spot.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Smile 2
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
3. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. We Live in Time
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (October 11-13)
Please note that Joker: Folie à Deux is not listed in my top 5 for its third go-round due to a historically awful sophomore weekend plummet. We’ll get to that in a second, but let’s focus on the other big story for now. Terrifier 3 wowed prognosticators with $18.8 million, ahead of my $14.4 million call. With a reported budget of $5 million, the grisly Art the Clown Christmas bloodbath solidified its franchise bonafides. You can expect a fourth cut in the near future.
The Wild Robot held in second with $14 million and surpassed my $11.7 million prediction. In its three weeks in multiplexes, the DreamWorks Animation adventure has amassed $84 million as it flies to nine digit territory.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third with $7.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week tally of $275 million as it looks to scare up $300M+ domestically.
Joker: Folie à Deux, after a disastrous enough premiere, was down an embarrassing 81% in fourth with $7 million. I was more generous in thinking it would only go down 75% with $9.5 million. The lambasted sequel has taken in $51 million in ten days and will struggle to reach $75 million stateside. As a reminder, its 2019 predecessor made $335 million in the U.S. and Canada and over one billion worldwide.
A slew of newcomers that didn’t star Art the Clown failed to fill seats. Lego themed Pharrell documentary Piece by Piece was fifth with $3.8 million compared to my $5.4 million projection.
Holdover Transformers One was sixth with $3.7 million for a muted $52 million in four weeks. I did not do an estimate for the animated Hasbro title.
Saturday Night, Jason Reitman’s recounting of the lead-up to SNL’s first episode in 1975, was seventh with a discouraging $3.4 million. I had it pegged in fourth with $7.8 million. SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT: check out the homepage on my blog to see my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time posts. At press time, I’ve written entries for numbers 50-43 and they are being uploaded on a daily(ish) basis.
Manga sequel My Hero Academia: You’re Next was eighth with a meh $3 million, just over half of my $5.9 million prediction.
Finally, The Apprentice stumbled in 10th with $1.6 million (I went with $2.4 million). The story of Donald Trump rising to prominence in the 1980s did not attract curious onlookers.
Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based partly on its considerable 2500 screen count, I am upping my Terrifier 3 from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.
A fascinating weekend lies ahead at the box office as a handful of newcomers try to break out, but they could all fall under $10 million. We have low-budget horror threequel Terrifier 3, behind the scenes showbiz dramedy Saturday Night (expanding in wide release), manga superhero entry My Hero Academia: You’re Next, the Pharrell Williams Lego themed doc Piece by Piece, and a Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice all vying for attention. You can peruse my prediction posts on them here:
This sophomore frame of October is one in which Joker: Folie à Deux was widely expected to dominate the charts for a second time. That is very much in danger after its disastrous premiere (more on that below). The musical mashup of Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga could experience a decline in 75% range considering its toxic word-of-mouth.
If so, that could mean a return to 1st position for The Wild Robot in its third outing. It may only dip in the high 30s or low 40s.
Terrifier 3 may have the best breakout potential among the newbies. I have it placing second just ahead of Joker. That’s a development that would’ve been unimaginable days ago.
I don’t foresee any of the fresh product reaching eight digits with Saturday Night in fourth and holdover Beetlejuice Beetlejuice rounding out the high five. The other three debuting flicks I have slotted 6-7 (Academia, Piece) and 9 (Apprentice) with Academia potentially having the chance for a little more than I’m projecting.
Here’s how I have it playing out with a top 8 this time around:
1. Terrifier 3
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. The Wild Robot
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
3. Joker: Folie à Deux
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Saturday Night
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
6. My Hero Academia: You’re Next
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
7. Piece by Piece
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
8. Transformers One
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
9. The Apprentice
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (October 4-6)
Arriving 5 years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux failed in spectacular fashion with critics and audiences. The sequel from Todd Phillips crashed with $37.6 million compared to my $54.3 million prediction. 2019’s original caught lightning in a bottle with a $96 million burst out of the gate (still the best October start in history) and 11 Oscar nominations. Deux could not measure up and that’s being kind considering it came in nearly $60 million lower. To add insult to injury, many reviews were brutal. Even worse, crowds gave it an awful D Cinemascore grade as they did not love this Joker.
The Wild Robot was second with $18.8 million, in line with my $19.8 million take. DreamWorks Animation’s potential frontrunner for Best Animated Feature has grossed $64 million in ten days as it eyes a potential return to #1 this weekend.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice was third at $10.1 million, a bit under my $11.6 million estimate for a five-week haul of $265 million.
Transformers One held up decently in fourth with $5.3 million (I said $4.4 million). The $47 million three-week total is nothing to brag about.
Speak No Evil rounded out the top five with $2.7 million compared to my $3.2 million projection. In four weeks, it’s made $32 million.
Finally, Lionsgate had another turkey on their hands with Wonder prequel White Bird. It was seventh with $1.5 million. My guess? $1.5 million!
The animated Japanese superhero series My Hero Academia has made the bulk of its booty overseas, but performed admirably stateside. On October 11th comes the fourth feature You’re Next. Tensai Okamura takes over directorial duties with a voice cast including Daiki Yamashita, Nobuhiko Okamato, Yuki Kaji, Ayane Sakura, and Kaito Ishikawa.
Based on the manga series that kicked off in 2014, original cinematic franchise entry Two Heroes in 2018 had a limited theatrical release in the United States and Canada. In February 2020, sequel Heroes Rising earned $5.1 million for its start while October 2021’s World Heroes’ Mission upgraded a bit at $6.4 million.
We’ve had a longer layoff between parts three and four than any of the others. I doubt that will change the dynamic much and I foresee mid single digits as the best bet.
My Hero Academia: You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
**Blogger’s Update (05/30): Since it is only playing on just over 1000 screens, I am lowering my prediction from $6.5M to $3.9M
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll hope fans of Japan’s manga TV series dive into Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle when it debuts this weekend. The animated sports tale stems from a show that ran from 2012 to 2020. Susumu Mitsunaka directs a voice cast that includes Ayumu Murase, Kaito Ishikawa, Yuki Kaji, and Yuichi Nakamura.
The distributor gets the most bang for its buck overseas as Battle is already the second highest grosser in Japan for 2024. Obviously stateside grosses will be considerably smaller. Crunchyroll’s titles have seen diminishing domestic unveilings as of late. It is also worth noting that they usually generate about 70% of their business in the first weekend.
In February of this year, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training did bring in $11.5 million and that was just over 2023 predecessor To the Swordsmith Village at $10.1 million. Outside of that franchise, One Piece Film: Red premiered with $9.3 million in November ’23 while Spy x Family Code: White stalled with $4.8 million just last month.
I’ll give Haikyu!! a mid to higher single digits opening.
Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
Japan’s animated action fantasy franchise hopes to continue cutting into the American box office when Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira premieres on February 23rd. Haruo Sotozaki, who helmed previous entries Mugen Train (2021) and To the Swordsmith Village (2023), returns.
The trilogy of manga offerings is spawned from the anime TV series that ran from 2016-2020. While their profits are larger overseas, domestic grosses have impressed. In April of 2021, Mugen took in $21 million in its opening weekend with just under $50 million for the overall haul. In March of last year, Swordsmith‘s earnings were a cut below. It made $10.1 million out of the gate and the abbreviated run ended at $16.9 million.
I’m forecasting that Hashira will experience similar numbers to Swordsmith. I don’t anticipate a significant drop-off and it could even slightly exceed its predecessor’s start.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
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