Telling the true life tale of a mid 80s scandal involving the game show Press Your Luck, Paul Walter Hauser stars in The Luckiest Man Alive. From director Samir Oliveros, it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Costars include Walton Goggins, David Strathairn, Maisie Williams, Haley Bennett, Shamier Anderson, and Johnny Knoxville.
Hauser first garnered acclaim as the title character in Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell and has since won an Emmy for the miniseries Black Bird. He is said to be the highlight of this project which is still awaiting stateside distribution (a 2024 release in up in the air). The film itself is at 60% on Rotten Tomatoes. If a heavy hitter picks up Luck, perhaps a Best Actor campaign for Hauser is possible. There is an equal and perhaps better chance it never enters the awards convo. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
***Blogger’s Update (08/27): On the eve of its premiere, I am increasing my prediction for The New Mutants from $4.9 million to $6.9 million.
The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the release dates for scores of high profile feature films over the past several months. Yet in the case of The New Mutants, its series of delays has become a punchline in Hollywood that far preceded current world events. The film is the latest in the X-Men franchise and it seems 20th Century Fox has absolutely no confidence with it. It’s finally hitting screens after an original planned unveiling in (get this!) April 2018.
Mutants introduces new characters to the X-Men fold in what was originally planned as a potential trilogy. Josh Boone, best known for making The Fault in Our Stars, directs. The cast includes Maisie Williams, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Heaton, Alice Braga, Blu Hunt, and Henry Zaga. Marketed more as a horror flick than comic book adaptation, reports out over the past two years indicate that its studio were not pleased with the final product.
After getting bumped from the spring of 2018, this was pushed to February 2019 and then August 2019 and then April 2020 (this was all during Disney’s acquisition of Fox). After the COVID situation hit, Disney/Fox finally settled on the late August output. Mutants will be closely watched as it is the second American theatrical wide release after Unhinged.
Prior to COVID, the prospects for Mutants seemed doomed and that hasn’t changed. The X-Men franchise hit a low point in 2019 with Dark Phoenix. Its $32 million debut was easily the lowest of the series (no other X pic had premiered below $50 million). Mutants will blow that record out of the water. For starters, there’s the challenges facing any wide release at the moment (limited theater capacity, major markets still closed, etc…). I also suspect many casual moviegoers simply have no idea that Mutants even exists in the X-Men Universe.
I do not have a screen count for Mutants at press time, but I’m assuming it’s similar to the 2000 theaters that will greet Unhinged this weekend. If that holds, I’m not even confident that Mutants gets above $5 million in its first weekend. Disney and 20th Century Fox seem to be dumping this and I believe audiences will respond in kind.
The New Mutants opening weekend prediction: $6.9 million
At the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Saudi Arabian director Haifaa al-Mansour premiered MaryShelley with the hope of generating some solid critical buzz. The period drama casts Elle Fanning in the title role of the English author who brought Frankenstein to life in 1818. Costars include Douglas Booth, Maisie Williams, Ben Hardy, Bel Powley, and Stephen Dillane.
The picture largely landed with a thud. Scheduled for limited release in domestic theaters this Friday, Shelley is currently at just 33% on Rotten Tomatoes. Ms. Fanning is certainly an up and comer who could get her share of awards worthy roles in the future.
However, MaryShelley isn’t it. Once it screened up north, the reaction assured its Oscar chances aren’t alive.
StudioCanal is hoping family audiences will wish to travel to the Stone Age when their stop-motion animated tale Early Man debuts next weekend. Directed by Nick Park, maker of Chicken Run and numerous Wallace & Gromit efforts, the pic features the voices of Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hiddleston, Maisie Williams, and Timothy Spall.
Expected to debut on approximately 2200 screens at press time, Early Man could have trouble finding its intended audience. There is direct competition in the form of the second weekend of Peter Rabbit. Also Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should still be making some dough. Most importantly, plenty of kids will be preoccupied with what should be a massive opening for Black Panther.
I’ll project Early Man struggles in its four-day Presidents Day weekend roll out.
Early Man opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
We’re just 15 days into the new year, but my first 2018 Oscar Watch post has arrived courtesy of EarlyMan. The prehistoric stop-motion animated tale opens stateside on February 16 and it’s out in the United Kingdom next Friday. Early reviews are out and the initial Rotten Tomatoes score is a solid 86%.
Featuring the voices of Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hiddleston, Maisie Williams, and Timothy Spall, the family flick comes from director Nick Park. That’s where the Oscar chatter comes into play. Mr. Park has been nominated for the gold statue six times, mostly due to his animated short film efforts. In 2005, his feature length Wallace & Gromit: TheCurseoftheWere–Rabbit was victorious for Best Animated Feature. He’s had other acclaimed pictures including 2000’s ChickenRun, which still stands as stop-motion’s largest earner.
There will be plenty of competition rolling out over the calendar year, including high profile releases like TheIncredibles2 and Dr. Seuss’ TheGrinch. Yet it’s fair to say EarlyMan is an early contender for recognition among animated features.
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