Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 11 Edition

And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.

For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.

And here we go, my friends:

Best Picture

Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight

Other Possibilities:

10. Inside Out

11. The Big Short

12. Creed

13. Steve Jobs

14. Beasts of No Nation

15. Straight Outta Compton

16. The Danish Girl

17. Son of Saul

18. Anomalisa

19. Trumbo

20. Joy

21. Sicario

22. Love and Mercy

23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out

Best Director

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol

Other Possibilities:

6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room

7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

9. John Crowley, Brooklyn

10. Ryan Coogler, Creed

11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

12. Adam McKay, The Big Short

13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

15. David O. Russell, Joy

16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Other Possibilities:

6. Matt Damon, The Martian

7. Will Smith, Concussion

8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed

9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

11. Michael Caine, Youth

12. Steve Carell, The Big Short

13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Other Possibilities:

6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold

10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma

12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

7. Christian Bale, The Big Short

8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant

9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario

10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

11. Jacob Tremblay, Room

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo

Best Supporting Actress

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

8. Joan Allen, Room

9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul

Other Possibilities:

6. Love and Mercy

7. Straight Outta Compton

8. 99 Homes

9. Joy

10. Sicario

11. Ex Machina

12. Trainwreck

What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy

Best Adapted Screenplay

Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short

Other Possibilities:

6. The Revenant

7. The Martian

8. Anomalisa

9. Beasts of No Nation

10. Trumbo

11. Creed

12. The Danish Girl

What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.

And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…

Los Angeles and Boston Shine a Spotlight

As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.

Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.

Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.

Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.

For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.

Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).

As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.

http://youtu.be/tb_WgKDqPsE

Boston Strong for Mad Max

Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.

Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.

The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.

As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

A Lovely Day for Mad Max

A summertime thrill ride that has served as a resurgence for a thirty year old action franchise got a big Oscar boost today when Mad Max: Fury Road won the National Board of Review (NBR) award for Best Picture. This was an upset. While George Miller’s return to kinetic and wild adventure set pieces earned universal critical acclaim, it’s not really been looked at as a given for a Picture nod at the Academy Awards. The NBR attention does nothing but help.

Over this century, the NBR’s Picture winner has been nominated for the big race at the Oscars 14 out of 16 times (the exceptions were 2000’s Quills and last year’s A Most Violent Year). On the other hand, only two of the past 16 NBR honorees have won the Academy’s honor (2007’s No Country for Old Men and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire).

I would still say that Fury Road is no shoo in for a nomination, but its chances no doubt increased with the announcement this afternoon. I also believe a scenario (and maybe a stronger one) exists where Miller gets a directing nomination with the film being left off of the Best Picture group come announcement time.

The NBR also names an additional nine favorite movies of the year. They were: Bridge of Spies, Creed, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, The Martian, Room, Sicario, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton. Of these films, Sicario and Compton are seen as least likely to receive Oscar attention. Both are still possible and Creed‘s stock keeps rising.

High profile Oscar contenders left off? The Revenant, Steve Jobs, Joy, Anomalisa, Brooklyn, and Carol. However, the NBR list and the Academy list never match and expect some of these titles to be included in the big race.

Besides Max, the other pic to get a huge NBR boost is The Martian, where Ridley Scott won Best Director and Matt Damon won Best Actor. Again, neither are shoo ins for Oscar nods but their inclusion is seeming more and more probable.

As for the other acting categories, Brie Larson’s work in Room marked her first win in what could be several and her Oscar nod seems assured. Sylvester Stallone was victorious in Supporting Actor for Creed and it would now be a surprise if Oscar doesn’t call his name among the five nominees. The same is likely for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight, who won Supporting Actress.

This day really marked the official beginning of the awards season and there’ll be much more to chew on (other critics group, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) before the Academy reveals their choices. And this blog will be following and keeping you up to date all the way. Stay tuned!

Todd’s Oscar Predictions: November Edition

We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…

Let’s go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Allen, Room

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Jane Fonda, Youth

Diane Ladd, Joy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Isabella Rossellini, Joy

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Jacob Tremblay, Room

BEST ACTRESS

Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

BEST ACTOR

Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Will Smith, Concussion

BEST DIRECTOR

Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.

TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

BEST PICTURE

I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.

TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Creed

The Danish Girl

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

Mad Max: Fury Road

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Straight Outta Comption

And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 25-21

This evening brings us to a new best of list covering the last 25 years of motion pictures. And this time, instead of the best movies, we’re covering my personal list of greatest movie trailers of the last generation.

Let’s be clear: making this particular list was quite difficult. There are lots of criteria for what makes a brilliant trailer. Frankly, it frequently has little to do nothing with whether or not the finished product is any good. There are movies contained in this list that I was no fan of, but that doesn’t mean its teaser or trailer wasn’t pretty sweet. And the teaser and trailer designation is key. I’m including both on this list. There are some teasers that actually had little to do with the eventual picture. And there are some full trailers that effectively captured how terrific the eventual picture turned out to be.

Obviously this list is all in the eye of the beholder (meaning me) and there are several spectacular ones left off. Here’s just a dozen of them: Spider-Man, Zero Dark Thirty, Man of Steel, The Dark Knight, The Day After Tomorrow, Star Trek, Heat, Guardians of the Galaxy, Pearl Harbor, Fight Club, Kill Bill – Vol. 1, and Suicide Squad. I’m also glad I limited myself to the past 25 years because there’s some of the best ever prior to that period – namely Psycho, Alien, and The Shining.

As is typical with these lists, I’ll count down from 25 to 1 in five part installments every day. Here we go:

25. Taken (2008)

It’s not often you can say that one trailer spawned a film franchise, but Taken did just that with its trailer focusing on that famous Liam Neeson speech to his daughter’s captors.

24. Black Mass (2015)

Johnny Depp had starred in a string of commercial and critical disappointments, but one look at this chilling dinner table trailer and you knew he was back in his element. A likely Oscar nomination may well follow early next year.

23. Unbreakable (2000)

It may be hard to recall now, but Unbreakable was M. Night Shyamalan’s supremely eagerly awaited follow-up to his phenomenon The Sixth Sense. This mysterious trailer raised the bar of expectations and though some would disagree with me, I believe the actual film delivered.

22. Red Eye (2005)

The late Wes Craven’s pic has one of the cleverest trailers on the list. The first portion of it makes it seems like a lame romantic comedy (with Rachel McAdams no less, making that prospect more believable). The sudden tone shift makes you realize what you’re really in for…

21. Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)

It had been 30 years since director George Miller was behind the camera for this franchise and legitimate doubts persisted whether his reboot that replaced Mel Gibson with Tom Hardy would work. Once the first trailer hit, there was little doubt at all in this visually breathtaking work.

We will get to numbers 20-16 tomorrow, folks!

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.

Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.

We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:

TODD’S OCTOBER OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Other Possibilities:

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul

David O. Russell, Joy

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Best Picture is up next, folks!

Todd’s October Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

It’s onto part 3 of my second round of Oscar predictions and Best Actress is on the docket. Between my previous posts covering the Supporting Actor and Actress races, I changed half of those ten predictions from my initial round in late August and early September.

For Actress, only one prediction has changed and that was because Alicia Vikander’s role in The Danish Girl (predicted here weeks ago) has been switched by its studio to Supporting. The four previous predicted women – Cate Blanchett in Carol, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Carey Mulligan for Suffragette and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn remain.

The newcomer could also be the current front runner. Brie Larson’s performance in Room has been earning raves and her nomination is virtually assured. Blanchett is actually competing with herself as her lead role in Truth could get in instead of her work in Carol.

More than any other race, this one has remained the most consistent and we shall see if that remains when my third round of predictions is revealed in November. Tomorrow: Best Actor.

TODD’S BEST ACTRESS PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Cate Blanchett, Truth

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We have arrived at the Best Director portion of my incredibly early Oscar predictions for 2015. When I made predictions in this category last year for 2014 pics, it yielded 3 of the five eventual nominees and the other two were listed as other possibilities.

In the Director race, it’s safe to assume that all predicted directors will likely see their pictures nominated as well (my Best Picture prognostications will be up tomorrow). My current field includes three previous winners: Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs (he won in 2008 for Slumdog Millionaire), Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl (he won in 2010 for The King’s Speech), and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant (he won just last year for Birdman). Other previous recipients like Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), Robert Zemeckis (The Walk) and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea) are certainly possible as well.

David O. Russell’s last three projects (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook) have been showered with Oscar love so I’ll include him for December’s Joy. And Carol has been receiving festival raves and that could bode well for Todd Haynes.

Others to keep an eye out for: if The Hateful Eight garners the kind of love that Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained did, Quentin Tarantino could find himself in the mix. And don’t count out George Miller, whose direction in particular was lauded for this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road.

And with that:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

David O. Russell, Joy

Other Possibilities:

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Scott Cooper, Black Mass

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Sarah Gavron, Suffragette