Arriving in theaters exclusively two years after its predecessor did a simultaneous release on Peacock and in multiplexes, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is out December 5th. Based on the Scott Cawton created video game series, the horror sequel sees Emma Tammi back directing. Returning cast members include Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, and Matthew Lillard. Newcomers to the mix are Skeet Ulrich, Wayne Knight, Mckenna Grace, and Teo Briones.
In October 2023, Freddy’s greatly exceeded expectations with a fab $80 million out of the gate despite it being available at home for paying customers. The front loaded debut yielded a $137 million overall domestic haul. That detail could be key as part 2 could struggle. Fans of the games were deeply divided about whether the original did its source material justice. They came out right away to see it but word-of-mouth fizzled and some casual moviegoers steered clear. Many may not turn up for a second reservation.
Estimates have this only earning half of what part 1 achieved. This is a bit reminiscent of the M3GAN franchise where the 2022 pic landed a potent and unanticipated $30 million debut and this year’s sequel petered out with only $10 million. I’ll say Freddy’s 2 only gets mid to maybe high 30s.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 opening weekend prediction: $36.5 million
For my Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution prediction, click here:
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
Racing drama F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt looks to finish first this weekend while campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 aims for a strong second. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
The range for F1 could be wide and it wouldn’t surprise me if it topped $50 million. The low bar appears to be in the mid 30s. With mostly solid reviews and fans of the sport likely to turn up (that could be more significant overseas), I’m going with a mid 40s premiere.
I’m definitely going on the lower end of the spectrum for M3GAN 2.0, the follow-up to 2023’s surprise hit. As I wrote in my post, I’m not convinced audiences are clamoring for the title character’s return. My low 20s projection puts it in the runner-up spot though not by much.
Current two-week champ How to Train Your Dragon could lose close to half its sophomore frame crowd for high teens in third. The four and five spot could be close between Elio and 28 Years Later in their second outings. The former had a historically weak debut (more on that below) while 28 Years also kicked off at the bottom portion of its anticipated spread. I suspect Elio will have a much better hold than Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. F1: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.2 million
2. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
How to Train Your Dragon managed to stay atop the charts, but it did have a heftier decline that I figured. The live-action remake of the DreamWorks animated original brought in $36.5 million compared to my $41.6 prediction for $160 million in its initial ten days.
28 Years Later was second with $30 million, not matching my $33.7 million call. While that’s easily the strongest debut of the trilogy (it’s been eighteen years since its predecessor), some prognosticators had this pegged at $35-$40 million. With a so-so B Cinemascore, the dip this weekend could be pronounced.
Pixar experienced its smallest debut ever courtesy of Elio at $20.8 million. I was slightly more generous with $24.5 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the original story struggled to find its family audience as remakes and sequels dominate the season. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends to come (something that occurred with 2023’s Elemental after its uninspired beginning).
Lilo & Stitch was fourth with $9.7 million, eclipsing my $8.1 million take. This live-action remake of an animated property now sits at $386 million after five weeks with $400M+ firmly in its sights.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) as the franchise finale(?) has made $178 million in five weeks.
Finally, Materialists was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.8 million, a bit under my $6.6 million forecast. The ten-day tally is $23 million.
Two and a half years ago, Blumhouse scored a sci-fi horror hit with the demonic doll tale M3GAN and now the inevitable sequel M3GAN 2.0 arrives June 27th. Gerard Johnstone returns to direct along with cast members Allison Williams, Violet McGraw, Brian Jordan Alvarez, Amie Donald (embodying the title character), and Jenna Davis (voicing her). New faces to the franchise include Jenna Davis, Ivanna Sakhno, Aristotle Athari, Timm Sharp, and Jemaine Clement.
In January of 2023, M3GAN rode a wave of buzz to a better than anticipated $30 million premiere and $95 million overall domestic take. Early projections have part 2 (.0) achieving around the same number. It absolutely could, but I have a nagging feeling it may fall short.
I suspect there might be casual viewers who aren’t clamoring to view the AI killer’s next moves. There was a bit of a novelty factor to the original that may not carry over to those same theater goers. Therefore I’m saying low to mid 20s is more likely.
M3GAN 2.0 opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million
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