Arriving in theaters exclusively two years after its predecessor did a simultaneous release on Peacock and in multiplexes, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is out December 5th. Based on the Scott Cawton created video game series, the horror sequel sees Emma Tammi back directing. Returning cast members include Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, and Matthew Lillard. Newcomers to the mix are Skeet Ulrich, Wayne Knight, Mckenna Grace, and Teo Briones.
In October 2023, Freddy’s greatly exceeded expectations with a fab $80 million out of the gate despite it being available at home for paying customers. The front loaded debut yielded a $137 million overall domestic haul. That detail could be key as part 2 could struggle. Fans of the games were deeply divided about whether the original did its source material justice. They came out right away to see it but word-of-mouth fizzled and some casual moviegoers steered clear. Many may not turn up for a second reservation.
Estimates have this only earning half of what part 1 achieved. This is a bit reminiscent of the M3GAN franchise where the 2022 pic landed a potent and unanticipated $30 million debut and this year’s sequel petered out with only $10 million. I’ll say Freddy’s 2 only gets mid to maybe high 30s.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 opening weekend prediction: $36.5 million
For my Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution prediction, click here:
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
Racing drama F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt looks to finish first this weekend while campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 aims for a strong second. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
The range for F1 could be wide and it wouldn’t surprise me if it topped $50 million. The low bar appears to be in the mid 30s. With mostly solid reviews and fans of the sport likely to turn up (that could be more significant overseas), I’m going with a mid 40s premiere.
I’m definitely going on the lower end of the spectrum for M3GAN 2.0, the follow-up to 2023’s surprise hit. As I wrote in my post, I’m not convinced audiences are clamoring for the title character’s return. My low 20s projection puts it in the runner-up spot though not by much.
Current two-week champ How to Train Your Dragon could lose close to half its sophomore frame crowd for high teens in third. The four and five spot could be close between Elio and 28 Years Later in their second outings. The former had a historically weak debut (more on that below) while 28 Years also kicked off at the bottom portion of its anticipated spread. I suspect Elio will have a much better hold than Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. F1: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.2 million
2. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
How to Train Your Dragon managed to stay atop the charts, but it did have a heftier decline that I figured. The live-action remake of the DreamWorks animated original brought in $36.5 million compared to my $41.6 prediction for $160 million in its initial ten days.
28 Years Later was second with $30 million, not matching my $33.7 million call. While that’s easily the strongest debut of the trilogy (it’s been eighteen years since its predecessor), some prognosticators had this pegged at $35-$40 million. With a so-so B Cinemascore, the dip this weekend could be pronounced.
Pixar experienced its smallest debut ever courtesy of Elio at $20.8 million. I was slightly more generous with $24.5 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the original story struggled to find its family audience as remakes and sequels dominate the season. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends to come (something that occurred with 2023’s Elemental after its uninspired beginning).
Lilo & Stitch was fourth with $9.7 million, eclipsing my $8.1 million take. This live-action remake of an animated property now sits at $386 million after five weeks with $400M+ firmly in its sights.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) as the franchise finale(?) has made $178 million in five weeks.
Finally, Materialists was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.8 million, a bit under my $6.6 million forecast. The ten-day tally is $23 million.
Two and a half years ago, Blumhouse scored a sci-fi horror hit with the demonic doll tale M3GAN and now the inevitable sequel M3GAN 2.0 arrives June 27th. Gerard Johnstone returns to direct along with cast members Allison Williams, Violet McGraw, Brian Jordan Alvarez, Amie Donald (embodying the title character), and Jenna Davis (voicing her). New faces to the franchise include Jenna Davis, Ivanna Sakhno, Aristotle Athari, Timm Sharp, and Jemaine Clement.
In January of 2023, M3GAN rode a wave of buzz to a better than anticipated $30 million premiere and $95 million overall domestic take. Early projections have part 2 (.0) achieving around the same number. It absolutely could, but I have a nagging feeling it may fall short.
I suspect there might be casual viewers who aren’t clamoring to view the AI killer’s next moves. There was a bit of a novelty factor to the original that may not carry over to those same theater goers. Therefore I’m saying low to mid 20s is more likely.
M3GAN 2.0 opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million
Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.
At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.
AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.
AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)
The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.
The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.
If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.
I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.
The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.
And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
8. The Book of Clarence
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (January 5-7)
Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.
As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.
Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.
Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.
The first box office weekend of the new year has Universal and Blumhouse diving in with their supernatural horror flick Night Swim. It’s the only newcomer out amongst holiday leftovers. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My mid teens estimate for Swim puts it in contention for the top spot. If it underperforms, that could allow Wonka another frame atop the charts. There’s also the distinct possibility that it exceeds expectations as M3GAN did for the same studio and production company one year back. I landed on it coming in q a bit behind Wonka.
With Wonka holding the runner-up spot, Migration should stay in third with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom sliding to fourth and Anyone but You rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
2. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
3. Migration
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
4. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
5. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
Box Office Results (December 29-31)
Wonka was the top confection for audiences with $22.6 million in its third frame as 2023 wrapped up. That’s right on target with my $22.4 million call as the musical origin tale has amassed $133 million thus far and stands as the holiday pic of the season.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, as expected, fell to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore outing. A slight improvement over my $16.8 million forecast, it faces choppy waters compared to the massive grosses of its 2018 predecessor. Overseas grosses are fairly decent and it stands at $76 million stateside.
Migration had a nice hold in third with $17 million, on pace with my $17.9 million projection. The animated adventure from Illumination has formed a tally of $54 million after two weeks.
After a loud Christmas Day start, The Color Purple is settling down. It managed $11.7 million in its first full weekend in fourth, falling under my $15.4 million prediction. The musical has taken in $44 million since 12/25.
Rom com Anyone but You rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it in that spot. With $8.7 million, it has surpassed estimates with $24 million in two weeks.
Another holiday offering that has exceeded anticipation is George Clooney’s The Boys in the Boat. The period piece sports drama was sixth with $8.4 million (I said $7.9 million) for $21 million total since Christmas Day.
Universal Pictures is the first studio to wade into the 2024 release calendar when Night Swim opens on January 5th. The supernatural horror pic is the debut feature length effort director Bryce McGuire, adapting his own 2014 short film. James Wan (currently helming his own H2O themed Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom in theaters) and Jason Blum produce. Wyatt Russell, Kerry Condon, Amélie Hoeferle, and Gavin Warren star.
The studio and production companies behind Swim had a massive hit in the same weekend in 2023 with M3GAN. That buzzy flick made off with $30 million in its initial frame and ended up with $95 million domestically.
Swim is not anticipated to log that much cash. Yet a gross in the mid to possibly high teens could make the new year’s inaugural release a decent sized success.
Night Swim opening weekend prediction: $14.1 million
The Critics’ Choice Awards are one of the more reliable precursors when it comes to movies and actors who might receive Oscar nominations. Hopefuls will hear their names called tomorrow for the 29th annual ceremony.
This show can sometimes be unpredictable with how many nominees there will be in each race. Last year there were 11 in Picture, 10 in Director, and 6 for others. I’ll project 10 in Pic and Director and go with six in the remainder of the derbies (and an alternate), but don’t be surprised if they alter the formula.
Let’s get to it!
Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Color Purple
Director
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Todd Haynes, May December
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Alternate: Natalie Portman, May December
Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Alternate: Colman Domingo, Rustin
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Julianne Moore, May December
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Alternate: John Magaro, Past Lives
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro
Adapted Screenplay
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Foreign Language Film
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Taste of Things
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Fallen Leaves
Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Alternate: Wish
Cinematography
The Killer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
Costume Design
Barbie
Chevalier
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
Priscilla
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Alternate: The Holdovers
Makeup
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Maestro
Nyad
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Alternate: Oppenheimer
Production Design
Asteroid City
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Maestro
Score
Elemental
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: The Boy and the Heron
Song
“Dance the Night” from Barbie
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives
“Road to Freedom” from Rustin
“This Wish” from Wish
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
Alternate: “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Visual Effects
The Creator
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Alternate: Napoleon
Ensemble
Air
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Saltburn
Alternate: The Color Purple
Comedy
American Fiction
Asteroid City
Barbie
Joy Ride
The Holdovers
No Hard Feelings
Alternate: Bottoms
Young Actor/Actress
Joe Bird, Talk to Me
Andrew Barth Feldman, No Hard Feelings
Abby Ryder Fortson, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Ariana Greenblatt, Barbie
Milo Machado-Graner, Anatomy of a Fall
Violet McGraw, M3GAN
Alternate: Iman Vellani, The Marvels
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Barbie, Poor Things
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
7 Nominations
Maestro, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers
5 Nominations
May December
4 Nominations
American Fiction, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3 Nominations
The Color Purple, Saltburn
2 Nominations
All of Us Strangers, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Asteroid City, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, No Hard Feelings, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
Air, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Ferrari, Godzilla Minus One, Joy Ride, The Killer, M3GAN, Monster, Nimona, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Talk to Me, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Wish
**Blogger’s Update (02/01): I am adding a title to the top 5 that I previously didn’t have on Monday when I did my initial projections. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale is playing on over 2000 screens. As you may recall, the season premiere grossed nearly $9 million in December out of the gate. I’ll say the finale generates a little more than that and could challenge Avatar for the 3 spot. Changes are reflected below.
The seven-week reign of Avatar: The Way of Water at #1 should end in its 8th outing as February dawns at the box office. M. Night Shyamalan’s latest thriller Knock at the Cabin and the octogenarian comedy 80 for Brady debut and look to place 1-2. My detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:
Beginning with 2017’s Split, Shyamalan experienced a career resurgence that could carry Cabin (generating solid word-of-mouth) to a low to mid 20s start. Getting close to $30 million is not out of the question. That number should be enough to top the charts.
80 for Brady looks to appeal to a female audience and older viewers. A Man Called Otto recently showed the demographic is ready for a return at multiplexes. With a robust marketing campaign and the involvement of Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno, I could absolutely see it over performing. My current mid teens forecast is worth keeping an eye on before Thursday (meaning it could rise).
As mentioned, Avatar: The Way of Water (while remaining above $10M) should finally relinquish its stranglehold in first.Fellow holdovers Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and A Man Called Otto should round out the top five and here’s how I see it looking:
1. Knock at the Cabin
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
2. 80 for Brady
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
4. The Chosen: Season 3 Finale
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
6. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results(January 27-29)
Avatar: The Way of Water cruised to a seventh frame atop the charts with $15.9 million (ahead of my $14.3 million take). The domestic haul is $620 million, but the story of the weekend is that it surpassed Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the fourth largest worldwide grosser in history. That means James Cameron now has three of the top four (with Avatar and Titanic also in the mix).
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was runner-up with $10.4 million, surpassing my $9.2 million prediction. In six weeks, the animated sequel has amassed $140 million.
The surprise of the weekend was Pathaan, a Hindu language action spectacle that I incorrectly had outside the top five. It was third with $6.8 million and $9.4 million since its Wednesday bow. The PTA of nearly $10k was easily the highest on the charts.
A Man Called Otto was fourth with $6.6 million (in line with my $6 million projection) for $45 million overall.
M3GAN rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I said $5.8 million) as the campy horror tale is approaching nine figures at $82 million.
Finally, Missing was sixth in its sophomore weekend with $5.6 million, a tad above my $5.1 million call. The ten-day total is $17 million (doubling its reported $7 million budget).
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