Oscar Watch: The Girl on the Train

Two years ago, David Fincher’s Gone Girl successfully adapted its mega-hit novel source material. It earned $167 million stateside and nabbed an Oscar nomination for its lead, Rosamund Pike. This Friday’s The Girl on the Train has been compared to that title frequently. It’s based on a mystery thriller novel that scored with readers just last year. It’s expected to bring in a large female demographic when it debuts this weekend. It has a female lead (Emily Blunt) with a role some have speculated could garner Academy attention. In my previous Oscar prediction posts (they come out every Thursday folks!), I’ve listed Train as a possibility for Actress (Blunt), Supporting Actress (Haley Bennett), Adapted Screenplay, and even Picture. I will note that I had yet to include any of those nominations within the predicted five (or five to ten regarding Picture).

Well, today the critical reaction was unleashed on The Girl on the Train with numerous reviews rolling in. The verdict? Mixed. Very mixed. EW gave it a rave, but several other prominent writers were not kind at all. I don’t really believe this will endanger its box office prospects (I’ve got it slated for a $28.2M debut). Its Oscar prospects, on the other hand, appear… gone. This Thursday, I’ll have my updated post listing the possibilities for the previously mentioned categories. Blunt and Bennett have received some kind words in even some of the negative reviews. Yet their inclusion in the acting races appears far less likely than last week. Screenplay or Picture? Not a chance.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

The Girl on the Train Box Office Prediction

Just last year, the novel The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins became a massive bestseller and Universal Pictures wasted no time in getting the big screen adaptation to eager audiences. The book has been described as the “next Gone Girl” and the studio would love to replicate that film adaptation’s success here.

The thriller is directed by The Help‘s Tate Taylor and stars Emily Blunt with a supporting cast that includes Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett, Justin Theroux, Luke Evans, Allison Janney, Edgar Ramirez, Lisa Kudrow, and Laura Prepon.

Train should undoubtedly bring in fans of the source material (including a hefty female demographic). Yet reaching the heights of Gone Girl seems like a fairly unlikely prospect. Two years ago in the same first October weekend, the David Fincher effort earned just over $37 million out of the gate. It wouldn’t shock me to see this top $30M for its opening weekend, but I believe a mid-high 20s gross is more probable. If Train manages solid audience buzz, it could keep chugging along with smallish drops in future weekends.

The Girl on the Train opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million

For my The Birth of a Nation prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/the-birth-of-a-nation-box-office-prediction/

For my Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/09/28/middle-school-the-worst-years-of-my-life-box-office-prediction/

High-Rise Movie Review

Ben Wheatley’s HighRise is less a movie about plot than its theme. Based on a 1975 novel by J.G. Ballard, this parable about classism uses the title structure in dark and devious ways to show that its inhabitants are not best left to their own devices. Set in the year that the source material was penned, we can practically detect the stale cigarette smoke odor and lord knows what else in the fibers of its shag carpeting. However, the subject matter is timeless and familiar.

The newest tenant of the London 40 story building where we spend the bulk of our time is Dr. Robert Laird (Tom Hiddleston). He moves to this property built by famed architect Anthony Royal (Jeremy Irons), who lives on the rooftop penthouse with bodyguards, an entitled wife, lush gardens, and a white horse. The decadence of the property dilutes with each floor. If you’re up high, there’s costumed parties where the doctor is out-of-place. The lower dwellings are crowded and dirty with parties that are just as lively, if not wilder (it is the seventies after all). Our lead character is in the middle range – 25th floor to be precise. Dr. Laird becomes acquainted with both sides. He strikes up a fling with a single mom (Sienna Miller) right above him. Below him, he befriends the pregnant wife (Elisabeth Moss) of the unhinged Richard (Luke Evans), who begins to document the increasingly more unhinged happenings at the property.

Royal’s creation is built with indoor pools, gyms, and a supermarket. There’s little reason for the tenants to venture elsewhere and even the good doctor finds reasons not to go to work. The mix of all societal types together descends into violence, squalor, orgiastic violence, and orgiastic squalor. It’s not pretty to look at most of the time and yet it’s often hard to look away. Some of that credit belongs to a director in Wheatley who’s clearly a talent and some impressive cinematography and art direction. The cast is first rate as well, with Hiddleston leading the way in another role in which he shows some morality mixed with the opposite.

The problem with HighRise is that once you get the message of what it’s trying to say (it’s hard to miss), it mostly just repeats itself. The images are often both beautiful and hideous to behold. I would be lying if I said I felt it equals a wholly satisfying experience. The irony is that this may be the exact type of picture where the “higher floor” cinephile types may exaggeratingly extol its virtues. The “lower floor” moviegoing types (those who just wish to have an entertaining time) may wish they were anywhere else but this building. The “middle floor” types may find themselves, well, in the middle. My apartment may have been on the 25th floor, too.

**1/2 (out of four)

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Box Office Prediction

Over a decade after he wrapped up his historic and Oscar winning Lord of the Rings trilogy, director Peter Jackson wraps up his Hobbit trilogy with The Battle of the Five Armies, out Wednesday.

Moviegoers have been treated to a Hobbit pic around Christmas time for the last three years. 2012’s An Unexpected Journey opened to $84 million on its way to a $303M domestic haul. Last year’s The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t match that number. It debuted to $73 million with an eventual $258M gross. There is some reason to believe Armies could outdo at least Smaug.

For starters, it’s the last of the series which could pique interest for some audience members wishing to bid the franchise a farewell. Reviews have been pretty solid and it sits at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Many high profile critics have gone out of their way to proclaim it the best and most exciting of the trilogy.

Unlike its predecessors, Armies premieres on a Wednesday so a five day prediction is in order. I’ll predict that its five day haul gets over what Journey managed in three days while its Friday to Sunday gross marks the lowest of the franchise due to the expanded rollout.

The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies opening weekend prediction: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my prediction on Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/13/night-at-the-museum-secret-of-the-tomb-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Annie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/14/annie-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Wild, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/15/wild-box-office-prediction/

Dracula Untold Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures has had great success in their history with monster movies and they’ll try to replicate it with Dracula Untold, opening Friday. Luke Evans (mostly known as the bad guy in Fast and Furious 6) plays the title character with Sarah Gadon, Dominic Cooper, and Samantha Barks costarring.

The release date is no doubt timed to try and capitalize on audiences in a Halloween state of mind. One factor not in its favor could be that Annabelle will be entering weekend #2. While the doll pic is likely primed for a big fall in its sophomore frame, it certainly would count as direct competition. Then there’s Ouija opening just two weeks after. Dracula Untold comes with a hefty $100 million budget and Universal faces long odds recouping that cost domestically.

In fact, as I see it, this will fall far short of that. The film has received mostly negative reviews and sits at 31% on Rotten Tomatoes (not that critical reaction means much when it comes to this genre). Dracula Untold seems to have one thing going for it: the fact that the word “Dracula” is in the title. However, that didn’t mean much for I, Frankenstein earlier this year – which managed only $8.6 million in its first weekend..

Dracula Untold should be able to outpace that, though I’ll predict it only posts a premiere in mid single digits.

Dracula Untold opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my prediction on The Judge, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/the-judge-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/alexander-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-day-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Addicted, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/05/addicted-box-office-prediction/