Tag: Love Hurts

February 14-17 Box Office Predictions

For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction
Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.

Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.

It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.

And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

3. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

4. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.

Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.

Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.

Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.

Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.

Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction
Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.

Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.

As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.

Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

2. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Love Hurts

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Companion

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.

Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.

Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,

Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Ke Huy Quan, Oscar winner nearly two years ago for Everything Everywhere All at Once, headlines Love Hurts on February 7th. From director Jonathan Eusebio, the action comedy costars a fellow Oscar recipient in West Side Story‘s Ariana DeBose and a Super Bowl champion via Marshawn Lynch. The supporting cast also features Daniel Wu, Mustafa Shakir, Lio Tipton, and Quan’s fellow Goonie for life Sean Astin.

It is not, to my knowledge, an exploration of the history of “Love Hurts”, a song made famous by the Everly Brothers and covered by the likes of Roy Orbison, Nazareth, and Cher. That would probably be an interesting movie (just saying).

Speaking of the Super Bowl, that game is being played on Sunday the 9th and could certainly eat into Love’s potential. I’ll estimates this falls under $10 million.

Love Hurts opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Heart Eyes prediction, click here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction