July 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.

The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $36.4 million

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

3. Fly Me to the Moon

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

Box Office Results (July 5-7)

As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.

Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.

A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.

Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.

Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Longlegs Box Office Prediction

Neon hopes Longlegs lights up the box office this Friday. The 90s set horror thriller comes from director Osgood Perkins with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage (as a demented serial killer) headlining. Costars include Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka.

Plenty of scary genre titles have struggled in 2024 though A Quiet Place: Day One got off to a loud start just two weeks ago. Buzz is solid for Longlegs with a 93% RT rating.

Out on approximately 2500 screens, a victory for the studio would be a $10M+ start. It might get there and I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. That low double digits gross might put it in a race with the third weekend of Quiet for fourth place.

Longlegs opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my Fly Me to the Moon prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Longlegs

Prior to its release on July 12th, Longlegs from Osgood Perkins is generating some loud buzz. The horror thriller stars It Follows actress Maika Monroe alongside Nicolas Cage as a doll making serial killer who’s barely glimpsed in the effective trailers. Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka costar.

The Neon release is drawing some comparisons to The Silence of the Lambs and not just because it’s set in the 1990s. Lambs was an anomaly as the only horror flick to take BP and win Director, Actor, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay for good measure. This is not a genre that often resonates with the Academy and I suspect Longlegs won’t either despite the current 100% RT score. I would note that most reviews are not putting it in the Lambs league.

Critics are praising Cage for his creepy work. Don’t be surprised if Neon mounts a Supporting Actor campaign, but I highly doubt it will pan out in the long run. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…