NuestraTierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.
First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.
While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
H Is for Hawk is based on an acclaimed 2014 memoir by Helen MacDonald with Claire Foy playing the author. Philippa Lowthorne directs the drama with a supporting cast including Brendan Gleeson, Denise Gough, Sam Spruell, and Lindsay Duncan. Slated for domestic distribution by Roadside Attractions in December, Hawk has already played the Telluride and London festivals.
Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% based on the few reviews out. While write-ups for the film are more on the positive with reservations side, Foy is being lauded. The Emmy winner for The Crown likely came very close to an Academy nom in Supporting Actress for 2018’s First Man. However, Roadside is not known for attracting awards voters in their campaigns. I’ve yet to have Foy in my top 10 possibilities for lead Actress. Unless precursors surprisingly start including her, don’t expect that to change. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Based on a 2016 graphic novel by Isabel Greenberg, the historical fantasy 100 Nights of Hero played the Venice Film Festival and closed London’s as it moves toward a December 5th domestic release. Julia Jackman directs and adapted the source material for the big screen with Emma Corrin, Nicholas Galitzine, Maika Monroe, Amir El-Masry, Charli XCX, Richard E. Grant, and Felicity Jones in the cast.
Many critics are appreciating what’s called a feminist fable to the tune of 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Metacritic stands at 70 which illustrates the more measured tone of some reviews. IFC is distributing and they don’t exactly have a track record when it comes to awards campaigning. So while a down-the-line race like Production Design might be a possibility in the care of another studio, I don’t think Hero will be on the minds of voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Finnish set drama The Summer Book, based on Tove Jansson’s 1972 novel, premiered at the London Film Festival nearly a year ago. Directed by Charlie McDowell, it finally receives a limited theatrical bow this weekend. Glenn Close, Emily Matthews and Anders Danielsen Lie star.
The theatrical version is not as acclaimed as its source material with 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 Metacritic. Eight-time Oscar nominee Close (who famously has yet to win) does have a shot at a ninth nod in 2025. It would be in supporting for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and not this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Last year, the creative team of Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold (also partners in real life) guided The Brutalist to 10 Oscar nominations and three victories (Adrien Brody in Actor, Original Score, Cinematography). They’re back in contention this year with The Testament of Ann Lee which has premiered in Venice and will make stops at the Toronto and London festivals. Corbet directed The Brutalist and co-scripted with Fastvold. It’s the reverse this time around with Amanda Seyfried headlining as the title character who founded the evangelical Shakers in the 18th century. A musical drama shot in 70mm, the supporting cast includes Thomasin McKenzie, Lewis Pullman, Stacy Martin, Tim Blake Nelson, Christopher Abbott, and Matthew Beard.
Early Italian buzz indicates divisive vibes as how audiences will react (the same could be said for Brutalist). Yet Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with 76 on Metacritic. I suspect the pic’s more fervent admirers could propel this to a Best Picture nomination alongside Fastvold’s direction and original screenplay with Corbet. On the other hand, several reviews indicate this is more of a feature to admire than love (again… Brutalist vibes). Academy voters may ignore the aforementioned competitions.
Ignoring Seyfried is another story. Her performance seems poised to garner her a second nom after a Supporting Actress bid in 2020 for Mank. I’d put her behind Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), but a spot in the quintet seems likely. Unlike The Brutalist (where three performances vied for gold), her work should mark the sole attention paid to the cast. Down-the-line nods like Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, and Film Editing are all possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.
There are changes to discuss:
In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)
16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)
17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)
18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)
21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)
22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)
13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Alabama Solution
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mother Mary
“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein
6 Nominations
After the Hunt
5 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2
Christopher Andrews makes his directorial debut with the thriller Bring Them Down, out this weekend in limited fashion. Described as a grim and violent exercise, Down was first screened at Toronto last year (and then London) with Mubi handling distribution rights. Barry Keoghan and Christopher Abbott headline with Nora-Jane Noone, Paul Ready, Aaron Heffernan, and Colm Meany in support.
The 88% Rotten Tomatoes is tempered by the 59 on Metacritic. Plenty of kudos is going to the two leads, but the reaction doesn’t appear strong enough for Keoghan to get his second nod after The Banshees of Inisherin or Abbott to garner his first. This applies to any other category as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Netflix looks for family audiences to be in the holiday spirit when That Christmas begins streaming on December 4th. This is Locksmith Animation’s second animated feature after 2021’s Ron’s Gone Wrong. Simon Otto directs with a screenplay cowritten by Richard Curtis, the rom com guru behind Four Weddings and a Funeral, Notting Hill, Bridget Jones’s Diary, and Love Actually. Voiceover work is provided by Brian Cox, Fiona Shaw, Jodie Whittaker, and Bill Nighy.
The Yuletide comedy premiered at the London Film Festival and reaction is split at 50% on Rotten Tomatoes. With that kind of response, I doubt Netflix will mount much of an attempt at an Animated Feature campaign. They stand a much stronger chance with Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.
Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.
In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2.Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10.Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dídi
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cloud
Flow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
September 5
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visusal Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Gladiator II
6 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Blitz, Conclave
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked
2 Nominations
Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Steve McQueen’s World War II drama Blitz opened the London Film Festival today and it’s one of the final major awards puzzle pieces to screen. Opening in limited fashion on November 1st before an Apple TV streaming rollout on November 22nd, the cast includes Saoirse Ronan, young newcomer Elliot Heffernan, Harris Dickinson, Benjamin Clementine, Kathy Burke, Paul Weller, Stephen Graham, Erin Kellyman, and Leigh Gill.
I’ve had Blitz placed in either the 1 or 2 slot in Best Picture in my predictions over the past several months. It’s easy to understand why. In 2013, McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave was a Best Picture winner. Before Blitz, there was only one feature film in between with 2018’s Widows. Despite solid reviews, Widows was not an Academy player. Yet the genre of Blitz seems ripe for consideration.
Following its festival bow, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 94% with 76 on Metacritic. That’s just fine, but it’s not that simple. A deeper dive into the critical reaction tells me that Blitz will no longer be placed in the 1 or 2 position for BP. In fact, it will likely drop from the top 5 of possibilities to somewhere between 6-10. In other words, I don’t see it as a threat to win.
As for the cast, not much has changed. Ronan will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and she is probably the only performer that could (and I suspect will) make the cut. If so, she stands an excellent shot at being a double nominee coupled with her lead work in The Outrun. Such nods would mark her fifth and sixth tries at gold behind Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. As for Heffernan, he could be a shoo-in for a Best Young Performer nom at the Critics Choice Awards.
Original Screenplay is also possible, but I don’t think it’s automatic. Tech recognitions in Production Design (which seems especially plausible), Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound, and maybe Visual Effects are feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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