Action sequel Nobody 2 starring Bob Odenkirk is the only wide release vying for a spot in the top five this weekend as Weapons aims to repeat in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
The first Nobody in 2021 premiered as COVID was presenting challenges to theaters. The follow-up is expected to build upon on the original’s numbers. I still question whether this gets to teens and I am putting it a shade under. That likely means a third place showing.
Weapons from Zach Cregger had a spectacular debut (more on that below). With an A- Cinemascore (impressive for the genre), its sophomore dip could be less pronounced than other summer offerings. Lack of competition should also help. I will warn that my drop-off projections have been a bit generous lately. Yet I’ll say a low to mid 40s ease should mean a mid 20s gross and that leaves it in first with room to spare.
As for Freakier Friday, it could fall more than 50% and still remain in second. Holdovers The Fantastic Four: First Steps and The Bad Guys 2 should round out the high five. Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $13 million
3. Nobody 2
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (August 8-10)
Weapons capitalized on its intriguing trailer and laudatory reviews, dominating the chart with $43.5 million. That’s way ahead of my meager $28.8 million take and another 2025 winner for Warner Bros. While I don’t see it legging out like Sinners (another WB property), the road ahead should be fruitful.
Disney’s Freakier Friday with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan had to settle for second with $28.5 million. That’s on the lower end of its expected range and a bit below my $32.5 million prediction. It’ll hope for family audiences to keep it afloat in the coming weeks. That could be a tall order with its intended audience going back to school.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, after two weeks at #1, was third with $15.7 million. The near 60% plummet (again) was under my $18.9 million estimate and the reboot stands at $230 million.
The Bad Guys 2 was fourth with $10.5 million in its second go-round. Once again I was more generous at $13.6 million. The animated sequel has made $43 million and is likely to fall short of its predecessor’s domestic tally ($97 million).
The Naked Gun rounded out the top five with $8.3 million and I said it would do $10 million. The two-week total is $32 million.
Finally, Sketch from Angel Studios debuted in lowly 10th place with $2.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.9 million since its Wednesday bow. I went with $3.9 million and $5.8 million, respectively.
Sometimes my Oscar Predictions write-ups are actually Golden Globe Predictions and that would apply to Freakier Friday. Out Friday, this is the sequel to the 2003’s Freaky Friday which itself was a remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy that was actually based on a 1972 book. Got all that? Nisha Ganatra directs with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan back headlining. Costars include Mark Harmon, Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, Manny Jacinto, Chad Michael Murray, and Rosalind Chao.
No, Freakier Friday won’t contend for the Academy’s attention. However, the Friday features have a history with the Globes. In Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy, both Jodie Foster and Barbara Harris were nominated for the ’76 version (they lost to Barbra Streisand for A Star Is Born). Bonus fun fact: Harris was a double nominee in that category as she was also up for Alfred Hitchcock’s final film Family Plot. In 2003, Jamie Lee Curtis was a hopeful in the same race for the remake and fell short to Diane Keaton for Something’s Gotta Give.
Early reviews for Freakier are pretty decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. That’s lower than Curtis/Lohan’s tale from 22 years ago. If competition is light, it’s not impossible that Curtis could find herself in the Globes mix again. Her chances are certainly less than they were in the earlier part of the century. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
For my #38 entry on the Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time, let’s give it up for Rachel Dratch! The Massachusetts native came up at Second City in Chicago alongside Tina Fey before being cast on the legendary sketch show.
Appearing during one of the show’s peak eras, noteworthy impressions included Calista Flockhart and Arianna Huffington. Her upbringing came into play with Boston teen Denise while her “Love-ahs” sketches with Will Ferrell were a bizarre highlight.
Yet any SNL fan knows Dratch’s signature contribution was the brilliant Debbie Downer that resulted in one of the all-time character breaking segments in history. When it comes to characters that have stayed in the consciousness of the public, it’s way up there. #37 will be up soon!
Arriving nearly 20 years after its source material was a critical and commercial success, Mean Girls looks to fetch profitable results for Paramount when it debuts January 12th. The musical comedy is based on the Broadway show that resulted from the 2004 film. Tina Fey writes the screenplay (as she did for both preceding projects) and reprises her role from the original (alongside Principal Tim Meadows). New cast members include Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Auli’i Cravalho, Christopher Briney, Jenna Fischer, Bijou Philipps, Jon Hamm, and Ashley Park. Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr. are behind the camera for their directorial debuts.
In the spring of 2004, Mean Girls grossed an impressive $86 million domestically and $130 million total worldwide. Its popularity has endured in the following two decades. OG MG’s Lindsay Lohan, Amanda Seyfried, and Lacey Chabert (minus Rachel McAdams) recently reunited for a Walmart ad. Fans of that version and more (especially an anticipated large female audience) should turn out. Once slated for a Paramount+ bow, the studio reportedly changed their minds after encouraging screenings.
That should prove to be a wise move. Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Girls is anticipated to generate a four-day start in at least the mid to possibly high 20s. I think it will that range is about right.
Mean Girls opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Writer/director Paul Schrader has never shied away from the subject of faith in his over four decades in cinema. It’s present in often invigorating ways in FirstReformed, which restored my own in Schrader’s ability to surprise and confound us. Here the screenwriter of TaxiDriver, RagingBull, and TheLastTemptationofChrist seems more focused than he has in some time. His recent filmography includes two unfortunate Nicolas Cage straight to VOD titles and the Lindsay Lohan bomb TheCanyons. This is a return to form.
Ethan Hawke is Reverend Ernst Toller, who ministers at an upstate New York parish that bears the film’s title. The church is about to mark its 250th anniversary and holds great historical significance. However, there’s more people in attendance on field trips during the week than on Sunday morning. The Reverend is a loner (a frequent trait of Schrader’s subjects). Some of these reasons are tragic. He encouraged his son to enlist in Iraq, where he was killed. That loss ended his marriage. Toller is clearly experiencing serious health issues and he masks the pain with a bottle.
A sparsely attended service one day brings Toller in the presence of Michael (Philip Ettinger). He’s a hardcore environmental activist who was recently incarcerated for his protests. His wife Mary (Amanda Seyfried) is pregnant with their child (if that sounds like overt religious symbolism… you’re correct). Michael’s crisis of faith is questioning the validity of bringing a life into the world that he believes has precious time left. The Reverend offers platitudes, but is clearly not confident in his own reassurances.
This meeting ends up having a profound effect on the Reverend that veers into unexpected directions. His church is largely subsidized by an energy CEO (Michael Gaston) and a nearby mega church led by a pastor played by Cedric Kyles (aka Cedric the Entertainer in a change of pace role). His faith in them falters. Toller begins to espouse Michael’s beliefs in foreboding ways while establishing a strong connection with Mary. His mind’s journey is not dissimilar from Robert De Niro’s Travis Bickle in the landmark TaxiDriver.
Hawke is present in nearly every frame of FirstReformed and it’s the kind of multi-layered part that most actors likely dream of. It’s his finest work to date. Schrader is not shy about mixing the themes of environmentalism and corporate greed with those of salvation and grief. This is not always a pleasant watch as we witness Toller’s descent into… well we’re never totally sure. Yet it’s often riveting to behold.
FirstReformed fades to black with an ending open to interpretation. Like most everything preceding it, Schrader challenges the audience to reach their own conclusions about Toller. In a picture with these weighty themes, he deftly does so by not being overly preachy. That’s a testament to his power as a writer and we are witnesses again.
Well it’s Throwback Thursday and I’m giving you the culmination of my three-part series recounting the movie summers of 30, 20, and 10 years ago. We’ve already gone back to memory lane in 1987 and 1997. If you missed either of those posts, you can find them here:
That means I’m traveling back a decade ago to 2007 and it’s a summer where threequels were majorly in vogue, accounting for four of the top six grossing pictures. Sequels were pervasive in general in this particular season and it was a breakout summer for one Seth Rogen.
As I have with these previous entries, I’ll count down the top ten hits as well as other notable pics and some flops.
Let’s get to it!
10. Rush Hour 3
Domestic Gross: $140 million
The third and final pairing of Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker in this action comedy franchise is our first threequel on the list. It fell a steep $86 million short of what Rush Hour 2 accomplished six seasons earlier.
9. Knocked Up
Domestic Gross: $148 million
The comedic summer breakout continued Judd Apatow’s hit streak after The 40 Yr. Old Virgin from two previous summers and gave Seth Rogen his first big leading role. Katherine Heigl may have inexplicably trash talked it later, but audiences disagreed.
8. The Simpsons Movie
Domestic Gross: $183 million
Arriving nearly two decades after the still going FOX animated series debut, The Simpsons Movie surpassed all expectations with its gargantuan gross. Just last month, producers announced there’s been traction on a planned sequel.
7. Ratatouille
Domestic Gross: $206 million
Our second animated entry comes from the Pixar conglomerate. The critically hailed rat tale actually experienced one of the lowest openings for Pixar, but it still managed to top $200 million and its reputation has only grown.
6. The Bourne Ultimatum
Domestic Gross: $227 million
Matt Damon’s third go-round as the title character is still the highest grossing entry of the franchise and the only to pass $200 million. The star returned to the series just last summer.
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Domestic Gross: $292 million
The fifth installment of the $2 billion plus franchise marks the first one directed by David Yates, who would make the following three pics as well. It stands #5 of the 8 Potter pics in domestic gross.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Domestic Gross: $309 million
The third Pirates flick is when critics really started to turn on the series. Getting past $300 million is nothing to sneeze at, but it is nearly $115 million lower than its predecessor Dead Man’s Chest just one summer before.
3. Transformers
Domestic Gross: $319 million
Michael Bay’s bot series started a decade ago and it’s still going. The original ranks third of the five in grosses as its two sequels topped it, but the last two have fallen under it.
2. Shrek the Third
Domestic Gross: $322 million
Much like Pirates, this is when reviewers started to sour on this series. It was still chugging along, but it did fall $120 million below Shrek 2.
1. Spider-Man 3
Domestic Gross: $336 million
Anyone noticing a pattern here? Once again – a third franchise entry where critics started sharpening their knives. This end to the Sam Raimi Spidey trilogy was considered a big letdown in quality, yet it still topped the summer while earning less than its two predecessors.
And now for some other notable pictures of summer 2007:
Live Free or Die Hard
Domestic Gross: $134 million
From a pure numbers standpoint, it’s the highest grossing pic to feature Bruce Willis in his signature role of John McClane (though that changes when adjusting for inflation). From a pure entertainment standpoint, the decision to make this the only PG-13 Die Hard film was a bit puzzling.
Superbad
Domestic Gross: $121 million
Mr. Rogen’s big summer kept rolling along with this acclaimed comedy in which he costarred and co-wrote. Jonah Hill, Michael Cera, and McLovin became household names due to this.
I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
Domestic Gross: $120 million
Before his movies moved to Netflix, Adam Sandler could still crank out $100M+ earners just a decade ago, even if it was this stale comedy co-starring Kevin James.
Hairspray
Domestic Gross: $118 million
Based on both the John Waters 1988 pic and the Broadway musical that followed it, Hairspray featuring John Travolta, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Christopher Walken performed above expectations.
Ocean’s Thirteen
Domestic Gross: $117 million
Worth mentioning because it’s yet another threequel that couldn’t quite match the grosses of the first two. An all female version of the Ocean’s franchise is soon coming to a theater near you.
Once
Domestic Gross: $9 million
That may be appear to a small gross, but this little Irish romantic musical came out of nowhere stateside and has achieved a devoted following. It’s even been adapted into a Broadway play.
And now for some of the flops of summer 2007:
Evan Almighty
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Yes, it may have crossed the century mark, but this spin-off of 2003’s Bruce Almighty was considered the flop of the season. Starring Steve Carell fresh off the acclaimed 40 Yr. Old Virgin, this family feature came with a reported $175 million budget. Audiences and critics weren’t impressed.
Stardust
Domestic Gross: $38 million
This fantasy flick with Claire Danes, Robert De Niro, and Michelle Pfeiffer only earned a bit more than half its $70 million budget domestically. However, director Matthew Vaughn has bounced back in a significant way with Kick-Ass, X-Men: First Class, and Kingsman: The Secret Service.
The Invasion
Domestic Gross: $15 million
Another remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers, bad reviews sunk this pic that featured Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig, fresh off his heralded debut as James Bond.
I Know Who Killed Me
Domestic Gross: $7 million
Lindsay Lohan was a long way from Freaky Friday and Mean Girls with this panned psychological thriller that featured the starlet as a stripper. Audiences turned away.
And that does it, folks! You can rest assure you’ll see summer posts recounting 1988, 1998, and 2008 in a year’s time…
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