Tag: Linda Cardellini

Oscar Predictions: Nonnas

Dramedy Nonnas is available for order on Netflix this weekend with Vince Vaughn as a new restauranteur attempting to honor the legacy of his mother. Susan Sarandon, Lorraine Bracco, Talia Shire, and Brenda Vaccaro are the title characters cooking the food. Linda Cardellini, Drea de Matteo, Joe Manganiello, Michael Rispoli, and Campbell Scott are also part of the ensemble. Stephen Chbosky, known for The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Wonder, directs.

Several critics are being kind and complimenting the Nonnas’ heart. Rotten Tomatoes (which probably aren’t available for consumption in the pic’s venue) is at 79% with a more lukewarm 57 Metacritic rating. So despite some reviews saying this is likable enough, this shouldn’t be on the menu for awards prognosticators. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Nutcrackers

The wildly unpredictable career of David Gordon Green stays wildly unpredictable with Nutcrackers, a family dramedy that opened the Toronto Film Festival yesterday. Mr. Green first captured the admiration of critics with the 2000 indie George Washington. He eventually moved onto stoner comedies like Pineapple Express and Your Highness and then some well-regarded grounded dramas like Joe and Stronger. As of late, he’s made sequels to horror classics in the newest Halloween trilogy and The Exorcist: Believer.

His latest is another genre u-turn with Ben Stiller as a career man who travels to Ohio to care for his four orphaned nephews. It marks Stiller’s first headlining role since The Meyerowitz Stories in 2017. Linda Cardellini, Tim Heidecker, and Edi Patterson costar.

Last year, TIFF’s premiere picture The Boy and the Heron started an Oscar journey that culminated in a Best Animated Feature victory. Obviously Nutcrackers won’t be eligible for that race. However, its chances of making any others are about as realistic. The Metacritic score is a ho-hum 55 at press time. That’s not going to lead to awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Review

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 marches to the beat of the writer-director James Gunn’s carefully curated playlist of the mawkish blended with the macabre. The actual needle drops are plentiful from Radiohead to Florence and the Machine and Earth, Wind & Fire and Spacehog (there’s actually CG swine in space in case you were wondering). Storyline A inflicts enough grotesque violence on cute furry creatures that I anticipated Sarah McLachlan piping up with a syrupy ballad, but it isn’t to be.

Team captain Star-Lord (Chris Pratt) is far from over the death of Gamora (Zoe Saldaña) in Avengers: Infinity War as we begin. Since it’s the MCU, she didn’t perish in the traditional way. The character was back as a different version of herself and with amnesia of her primary franchise’s activities in Avengers: Endgame. Now the leader of the thieving Ravagers, Gamora reunites with the old gang when Rocket (voiced by Bradley Cooper) is attacked and left critically wounded. As a reminder, the team also consists of Gamora’s half sister Nebula (Karen Gillan), charmingly dense warrior Drax (Dave Bautista), empath Mantis (Pom Klementieff), and Bob Ross favorite Groot with Vin Diesel grumbling his limited dialogue.

The highly intelligent raccoon Rocket is given the full flashback origin treatment in the third volume. His demented creator is Orgocorp CEO High Evolutionary (a scenery devouring Chukwudi Iwuji) who specializes in developing hybrid creatures and discarding them if they don’t meet his standards. Spoiler: the vast majority do not. Rocket is one of his most prized subjects from his dozens of batches at Orgocorp. It is only at the corporate headquarters that his life can be saved so the Guardians set course.

Along the way there’s stops at other galaxies including the bizarro Counter-Earth with its populace of human/animal hybrids. That extended sequence is an example of Gunn at his best with the grimly comedic gumbo. It works well on that planet and in plenty of other moments. Rocket’s backstory does manage to pull the heartstrings fairly successfully.

All other subplots are given the short shrift. Drax and Mantis have a few humorous bits though they’re truly secondary characters this time (as is Groot). Even the presence of Gamora, while giving the gifted Saldaña basically a fresh character to play, takes a backseat to Rocket’s launch in the plot. I’ll note that it’s taken this long to mention Adam Warlock (Will Poulter). He was teased at the end of volume 2 as a nemesis to the title heroes. Adam is responsible for Rocket’s wounds and then the script doesn’t really know what the heck to do with him. He could’ve been written out the script entirely and it would’ve made zero difference. Pratt’s work as Peter Quill/Star-Lord is still a treat. It’s an MCU casting decision that ranks almost as high as Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron Man. He manages not to be overshadowed by his omnivorous costar.

Of the various sub-franchises in the Marvel Cinematic Universe containing three entries or more, Guardians is surprisingly the first where quality flows in order of release. That’s not to say the quality is missing. It’s that the mix has more lowlights than the previous two and definitely runs longer than necessary. Gunn still manages to make the sentimental and sometimes sadistic concoction worthwhile and it’s a cut above most MCU material post Endgame.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Capone

Originally scheduled for a theatrical release prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Josh Trank’s Capone hits the VOD circuit tomorrow and reviews are out. The biopic casts Tom Hardy as notorious Chicago gangster Al Capone during the last illness ravaged years of his life. The supporting cast includes Linda Cardellini, Jack Lowden, Kyle MacLachlan, and Matt Dillon.

While it currently sports a 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating, the number does not quite tell the tale. Some critics are simply savaging it while others are far more kind. It’s probably safe to say that Capone will spur much chatter on both sides. The director became known to many moviegoers based on 2012’s well-received sci-fi tale Chronicle before his 2015 Fantastic Four reboot that was a commercial and critical flop.

Much of the review space has centered on Hardy’s work. Similar to his performance in Venom, some writers are calling it an inspired and somewhat bonkers portrayal. Others say it is just plain bonkers. A Supporting Actor nominee for 2015’s The Revenant, don’t expect a second nod here.

In fact, the level of vitriol from some makes you wonder if Capone could be a contender for some Razzie nods at the end of 2020. As for Oscar contention, the enthusiasm is steered in a different direction. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Green Book Movie Review

Green Book does represent Driving Miss Daisy in reverse with its story. Like that 1989 film, it also has a Best Picture Oscar and an unexpected one at that. This isn’t in the top-tier of movies to receive that honor, but it is an often effective and very well-acted tale of an unlikely friendship.

Viggo Mortensen is Tony “Lip” Vallelonga, a bouncer at the famed Copacabana in New York City circa 1962. The club is closing for renovations over the holidays. Hungry for work (and literally hungry all the time), he accepts a job as chauffeur for notable concert pianist Don Shirley (Mahershala Ali). Doctor Shirley lives above another Big Apple landmark – Carnegie Hall.

This union of an unrefined Italian-American and erudite African-American brings them to the Deep South. The era often puts the boss in Colored Only hotels and the employee in nicer ones. The title refers to an actual book which instructed black travelers where they could stay.

Tony and Shirley are real life figures as well. As portrayed by Mortensen and Ali, the actors form a genuine chemistry. The eight week tour is scheduled to end just before Christmas and Tony is determined to make it home for the holiday with his wife (Linda Cardellini) and large brood. Shirley is a loner with loose connections to family. In this sense, the plot actually resembles Planes, Trains, and Automobiles – albeit with less comedic overtones.

Green Book is directed by Peter Farrelly, who’s only known for material meant to make you laugh (Dumb and Dumber and There’s Something About Mary are the best of them). There are light moments, especially in the first half. The screenplay grows gradually more serious as the duo’s trek takes them to Alabama for the finale and the racist traditions become more pronounced.

This picture doesn’t break any new ground with its subject matter. It’s more of an amiable concentration on this alliance with two fine performers playing them. Those looking for something more weighty might be disappointed, but I felt the leads cause this to be a ride worth taking.

*** (out of four)

The Curse of La Llorona Box Office Prediction

Next weekend could provide an interesting answer to a question not posed before – how much can a Conjuring series picture gross if a lot of moviegoers may not be aware it’s actually part of the franchise? I give you The Curse of La Llorona, the sixth entry in this scary supernatural cinematic universe. The 1970s set ghost tale is directed by Michael Chaves in his feature-length debut (he’s slated to be behind the camera for the third official Conjuring flick next year). Linda Cardellini headlines a cast that includes Raymond Cruz, Patricia Velásquez, Tony Amendola (reprising his Annabelle role), and Sean Patrick Thomas.

Llorona premiered last month at the South by Southwest Festival. Early reviews are mixed to negative with a current 44% Rotten Tomatoes score. At the time of its unveiling, it was a bit of a surprise that this even existed in the billion dollar worldwide franchise. It’s a legitimate question as to whether the marketing campaign has had enough time to establish that fact.

In my view, that almost certainly means this will experience the lowest debut of the series so far. Horror fans have certainly had options lately with Us and Pet Sematary. That said, it’s a risky group of films to bet against. Just last fall, The Nun unexpectedly set the franchise opening weekend high mark at $53 million. The lowest start belongs to Annabelle: Creation at a still impressive $35 million. That creepy doll, by the way, is back this June with Annabelle Comes Home.

Tracking currently has this at $20 million and that sounds about right.

The Curse of La Llorona opening weekend prediction: $20.1 million

For my Breakthrough prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/09/breakthrough-box-office-prediction/

For my Penguins prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/04/10/penguins-box-office-prediction/

A Simple Favor Movie Review

Stephanie (Anna Kendrick) is the type of character who would be in the book club that reads something like A Simple Favor. Yet the cyclone level of twists in the story might only be thought up by someone like Emily (Blake Lively) after drinking too many of her patented mid afternoon dry martinis. Paul Feig’s satiric thriller is, alas, based on a novel by Darcey Bell that probably has been read in those clubs.

This takes the issues of female empowerment found in Gone Girl or The Girl on the Train (also from literary works) and casts a black comedic cloud over it. It occasionally risks collapsing under its sheer volume of plot turns. And somehow it rarely ceases to be a hoot with two dynamic lead performances.

We meet Stephanie on her daily vlog filled with cooking tips and child rearing tips. She’s a single mom whose husband died in a car accident along with her brother. Her instinct is to do it all, including hoarding over school parenting projects. She doesn’t blink when Emily, whose kid attends school with Stephanie’s, starts asking her to be an unpaid nanny. Emily has a hectic job as PR manager for a fashion designer, the already mentioned drinking problem, and has-been writer turned professor husband Sean (Henry Golding from summer smash Crazy Rich Asians). The two end up bonding with Stephanie deeming Emily her “best friend” (there’s a bracelet involved).

Then one day Emily vanishes and Stephanie’s daily posts become a darker (though always humorous) search for a missing person. Her protective nature draws her close to Sean, so much so that the authorities begin to question their motives. What follows is a relentless stream of genre clichés: insurance claims, alternate identities, unknown twins, and love triangles, just to name some. This is kitchen sink level stuff. It’s borderline exhausting, but you get the feeling that Feig and screenwriter Jessica Sharzer know it and are furiously winking. The director is known for his straight up comedies such as Bridesmaids, The Heat, and Spy. While this does venture into paperback adapted material, it does it with tongue in cheek planted wit. This is more in tone with 1998’s under appreciated Wild Things than something like Gone Girl.

Kendrick and Lively are the show here and their chemistry makes it work. Stephanie’s desperation for companionship is sold by Kendrick, who thinks she’s found someone special beyond her unseen blog watchers. She’s done so with Emily, whose back story is filled with too many secrets to keep track of (you will lose count). Lively has a ball revealing them. So do we once we realize keeping up with it all is secondary to its ridiculous and fun nature.

*** (out of four)

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 22nd Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!

  • Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
  • Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (Green Book). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
  • For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate).
  • Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
  • In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
  • For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Vice (PR: 9)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: 3)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Widows (PR: 10)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Mule (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Boy Erased

Crazy Rich Asians

A Quiet Place

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)

9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Private Life (PR: 7)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

7. Burning (PR: 6)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 8)

9. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Guilty

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse (PR: 5)

5. Mirai (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 8)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

3. Free Solo (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)

7. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

8. Dark Money (PR: 7)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 1)

4. The Favourite (PR: 8)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Widows (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 10)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Colette (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 8)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

3. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Favourite (PR: 2)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 7)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Black Panther (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annihilation (PR: 5)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 9)

9. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. First Man

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 10)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 7)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “Always Remeber Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

10. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

”Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that translates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, First Reformed, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Widows, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One

Happy Thanksgiving y’all!

Green Book Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/20): On the eve of its premiere, I have decreased my projection for Green Book

Green Book is debuting on four screens this weekend, but expands to approximately 1000 over the long Thanksgiving frame on Wednesday. The 1960s set dramedy played at the Toronto Film Festival a couple of months back and is said to be quite the crowd pleaser. Oscar buzz has followed. Viggo Mortensen plays the driver to Mahershala Ali’s classical pianist Don Shirley and both are likely to nab Academy nods for their work. Peter Farrelly, best known for co-directing comedies such as Dumb and Dumber and There’s Something About Mary with his brother Bobby, is behind the camera.

With an 83% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, Book will attempt to bring in an older audience over Turkey Day. With the anticipated awards attention, this looks to develop sturdy legs throughout the holiday season.

So how will it open? The theater count should limit its potential out of the gate, but I believe the opportunity to top double digits for the five-day is possible. I’ll say it just gets there.

Green Book opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Ralph Breaks the Internet prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/13/ralph-breaks-the-internet-box-office-prediction/

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/creed-ii-box-office-prediction/

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:

  • On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
  • Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
  • Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 10)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

14. The Mule (PR: 13)

15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igH_nJqb0hc

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7ckCekdGr8

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 7)

7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dogman

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)

8. Early Man (PR: 5)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Grinch

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

2. Free Solo (PR: 1)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Quincy (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Favourite (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cold War (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YES0lLXIIz4

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Star Is Born

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZZ81-vW-Kc

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Avengers: Infinity War 

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)

And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

9 Nominations

First Man, The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.

And that does it for now! Until next week…