While his Stranger Things costars Caleb McLaughlin and David Harbour provide voiceover work for Goat next weekend, Joe Keery is part of the cast for horror comedy Cold Storage. Opening February 13th, Jonny Campbell directs with a script from veteran scribe David Koepp. Besides Keery, Georgina Campbell, Sosie Bacon, Vanessa Redgrave, Lesley Manville, and Liam Neeson appear.
With solid reviews thus far, Storage will attempt to stake its claim among numerous competitors debuting over the Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. It might have a tricky time finding its niche. Outside of some franchise stalwarts, mixing these two genres is a risky gambit.
I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast. My hunch is it doesn’t even reach mid single digits over the three or four-day premiere.
Cold Storage opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $2 million (Friday to Monday)
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
Arriving over 30 years after the Leslie Nielsen trilogy of outrageous slapstick comedies, Akiva Schaffer’s The Naked Gun reboot blasts off in theaters Friday. Liam Neeson stars as Frank Drebin’s son with Pamela Anderson as his love interest (which reportedly translated to real life). Costars include Paul Walter Hauser, Kevin Durand, and Danny Huston.
1988’s original (which was based on the short-lived but acclaimed TV show Police Squad!) was the critical darling of the series with the two follow-ups generally judged as inferior. Reviews for 2025’s installment are impressive with critics lauding its joke-a-minute landing percentage. It’s at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 78 on Metacritic.
I’m not saying Gun will be an Oscar contender. The Golden Globes? Maybe that’s a possibility. The critical reaction is sturdy enough that a nom in Best Musical/Comedy and Neeson in Actor (Musical/Comedy) doesn’t appear out of the question. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…
While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.
The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.
Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.
As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million
2. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
3. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Superman
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Together
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.
Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.
Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.
Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.
I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.
After three decades plus of dormancy, a comedy franchise gets its reboot on August 1st via The Naked Gun. The legacy sequel casts Liam Neeson as Lt. Frank Drebin Jr. (son of Leslie Nielsen’s bumbling lawman) with Akiva Schaffer directing. Costars include Pamela Anderson, Paul Walter Hauser, Kevin Durand, Danny Huston, and Liza Koshy.
With Seth MacFarlane producing, Gun has been in development for over a decade. 1988’s original from the Zucker/Abrahams/Zucker team (based on the short-lived but acclaimed Police Squad! TV series) is considered a genre classic. Further installments in 1991 and 1994 didn’t quite hit the funny bone bullseye, but managed to perform well at the box office.
Younger viewers may not have much familiarity with the series. Others could reject Mr. Neeson outside of his action thriller comfort zone. However, an effective trailer should help and advance word-of-mouth is encouraging. Comedies have struggled in recent years at multiplexes with many going the streaming route instead. Anything above $25 million would be an accomplishment. I’ll say low to mid 20s is more doable and that’s still a win for Paramount.
The Naked Gun opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million
Ethan Hawke, a two-time Oscar nominee for acting (Training Day, Boyhood) and a two-time nominee for writing (Before Sunset, Before Midnight), is behind the camera for Wildcat. The biographical drama is headlined by his daughter Maya Hawke as novelist Flannery O’Connor. Costars include Laura Linney, Philip Ettinger, Rafael Casal, Cooper Hoffman, Steve Zahn, Vincent D’Onofrio, Alessandro Nivola, and Liam Neeson.
It debuted at the Telluride Film Festival last September to considerably mixed reactions. Now it is heading toward a limited theatrical engagement this weekend with a RT score of just 47%. Marking Hawke’s first directorial effort since 2018’s little-seen Blaze (which received glowing reviews), this will not be a topic of awards conversations months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In the spring of 1997, 20th Century Fox re-released the original Star Wars trilogy to impressive box office numbers. Timed to the 20th anniversary of Episode IV, it helped build already sky high anticipation for 1999’s Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace. Now 25 years after its debut, Disney/20th Century Studios has it back in multiplexes.
George Lucas’s return behind the camera was probably the most breathlessly awaited movie of all time a quarter century ago. It broke records in its initial release and ended up with a domestic haul of $431 million. A 3D re-release in 2012 pushed it to $474 million.
Carefully timed so that the Saturday falls on May 4th (a sacred day for followers of the franchise), Phantom will try to push its stateside total to nearly half a billion. Of course, Menace is not beloved in the way that episodes 4-6 are. Back in ’97, the Star Wars re-release took in nearly $36 million out of the gate. A few weeks later, The Empire Strikes Back debuted to $21.9 million while Return of the Jedi made off with $16.2 million.
Phantom is not expected to reach those figures and may even struggle to hit double digits. Yet with a reported 2600 screens, it should manage a second or third place premiere and I’ll give it mid single digits.
Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
No, I’m not rethinking my 2022 decision to forego an Oscar Predictions post on the Liam Neeson action flick Memory. This is the write-up for the same monikered Michel Franco drama that premiered at the Venice Film Festival. The somber drama is led by Jessica Chastain (2021’s Actress winner for The Eyes of Tammy Faye) and Peter Sarsgard with a supporting cast including Merritt Wever, Jessica Harper, Elsie Fisher, and Josh Charles.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 88% with critics particularly complimenting the performances of the two leads. The Italian fest jury took notice as Sarsgard received the Best Actor award.
Assuming this makes the domestic release calendar by year’s end (release date is still TBD), its distributor MUBI has their work cut for them to break Chastain and Sarsgard into the lead conversations. Some critics prize attention could help and I’m taking a wait and see attitude with Memory‘s prospects. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Denzel Washington hopes for a fruitful holiday weekend at the box office with The Equalizer 3. It aims to have the second best Labor Day debut of all time as the only newcomer of the frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The third feature in the action trilogy should have little trouble achieving that 2nd best mark. Labor Day weekend is normally one where studios avoid breaking out the big guns. In 2021, Marvel ignored that tradition with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and its $94 million beginning. The runner-up opening belongs to 2007’s Halloween remake at $30 million and I’ve got Equalizer a shade under $40 million.
With an extra day of grosses, the weekend should see meager declines and even some increases for holdovers. I believe this should allow Barbie to stay put in second for the third week in a row while current champ Gran Turismo drops to third. The four to six slots should be a combination of Blue Beetle, Oppenheimer, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I have that trio separated by just over a million so their positions could fluctuate.
Here’s how I envision that top six and keep in mind these estimates are for the four-day:
1. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $39.2 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. Gran Turismo
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (August 25-27)
National Cinema Day on Sunday helped some pics post small declines, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Playstation based Gran Turismo from a so-so start. The racing drama took in $17.4 million, a tad below my $19.3 million projection. That’s good enough for first, but hardly provides Sony with bragging rights. With an A Cinemascore, it’ll hope for legs over Labor Day and could be successful as I only have it falling around 15%.
Barbie was second with $15.1 million compared to my $16.5 million take. The year’s largest hit is up to $592 million in six weeks.
Blue Beetle went from 1st to 3rd with $12.1 million, a shade under my $13.2 million prediction. The DCU flop stands at only $45 million after ten days.
Oppenheimer was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $8.1 million) as the epic has amassed $299 million thus far.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, in range with my $6.8 million estimate. The four-week total is $99 million.
Finally, two newcomers failed to find a crowd. Liam Neeson’s Retribution opened in line with the star’s recent action flicks with $3.5 million for eighth position. That is better than my call of $2.4 million. The nine slot went to sports drama The Hill with $2.3 million as it couldn’t climb to my $3.3 million guesstimate.
That does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you prefer to stream. Until next time…
Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.
The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:
With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.
Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.
As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.
That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.
Here’s how I see that high five playing out:
1. Gran Turismo
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
3. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (August 18-20)
Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.
WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.
As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.
Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.
Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.
Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…
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