Sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris lands in theaters this Friday and Focus Features is hoping for a midsize hit. Based on a 1958 novel by Paul Gallico, Lesley Manville stars a widowed housekeeper who treks to the title city to obtain a Dior dress.
The talented Ms. Manville is no stranger to pictures covering the fashion world. In 2017, she secured an Oscar nod alongside Daniel Day-Lewis in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. While the reviews are complimentary, Paris is highly unlikely to compete for major above the line categories… with the possible exception of Actress. While I wouldn’t count on it, if the Best Actress derby doesn’t produce many surefire contenders in the coming months, Manville could be a factor. I would, however, say it’s far more feasible that she gets a nod at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy competition. BAFTA recognition is also doable.
Where the picture stands the strongest chance is in Costume Design since that’s a significant focus of the storyline. That category should have its share of upcoming hopefuls – Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever immediately come to mind. Don’t be surprised if Paris is in that mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Focus Features is hoping that it will be fashionable to check out Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris when it debuts on July 15th. They’re certainly hoping it won’t be a dud. Based on a late 1950s novel by Paul Gallico once adapted into an early 90s TV movie starring Angela Lansbury, Anthony Fabian directs with Phantom Thread Oscar nominee Lesley Manville in the title role. Costars include Isabelle Huppert, Lambert Wilson, Alba Baptista, Lucas Bravo, and Jason Isaacs.
Paris is being unveiled on approximately 900 screens so that will certainly limit the potential. The distributor is banking on a female audience to turn out. That could be a challenge considering Where the Crawdads Sing opens the same day and will be competing for eyeballs.
Its best hope is siphoning off some older moviegoers. With the low theater count, a gross of over $5 million would be pretty impressive. I don’t think it gets there. It might be lucky to reach half of that.
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
For my Where the Crawdads Sing prediction, click here:
It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.
The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).
However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Till (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)
Focus Features is hopeful that an adult audience will turn out this weekend with their dramatic thriller Let Him Go. From director Thomas Bezucha, Diane Lane and Kevin Costner headline as a couple mourning the loss of their son and trying to save their grandchild from a dangerous situation. Costars include Lesley Manville, Will Brittain, and Jeffrey Donovan.
Originally slated for August before the inevitable COVID-19 delay, Go has screened for critics and the results are pretty positive. The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 74% based on nearly 20 reviews. Costner has been particularly visible as of late with strong ratings for his Paramount Network TV show Yellowstone. In a different reality, the pic could serve as shrewd counter programming for older viewers who might turn out.
The obvious question: will they do so during these times? The decent critical reaction might help, but I question whether this gets beyond $2 million out of the gate. I’ll put it right at that number and anything above would likely be considered a pleasant surprise.
The cavalcade of 2019 Disney live-action reimaginings continues next weekend with Maleficent: MistressofEvil. The fantasy adventure is the sequel to 2014’s Maleficent, which focused on the villainous title character from SleepingBeauty. Angelina Jolie returns along with Elle Fanning, Sam Riley, Imelda Staunton, Juno Temple, and Lesley Manville. Newcomers to the fold include Chiwetel Ejiofor, Ed Skrein, and Michelle Pfeiffer. Joachim Rønning (who recently co-directed the Mouse Factory’s PiratesoftheCaribbean: DeadMenTellNoTales) takes over for Robert Stromberg.
When it comes to comps for how Mistress might perform, that’s a tricky calculation. Since the release of part 1 five summers ago, there’s been eight Disney updates of their classic animated material. The last two from this summer (Aladdin and TheLionKing) were massive blockbusters based on beloved 1990s pics. This spring’s Dumbo, on the other hand, premiered with a so-so $45 million.
What about Maleficent itself? It opened just under $70 million with a $241 million eventual domestic haul. Yet five years is a fairly long break between sequels and some of the kiddos who attended could take a pass here. That brings up the example of AliceinWonderland and AliceThroughtheLookingGlass. In 2010, Wonderland was the first significant reimagining in several years. It debuted to $116 million. Six years later, LookingGlass was a huge flop and earned in the mid 20s for its start. For a non Disney example, SnowWhiteandtheHuntsman kicked off with a robust $56 million in 2012. Four years, its follow-up TheHuntsman: Winter’sWar sputtered with a meager $19.4 million.
While I don’t anticipate the drop-off here will be quite as dramatic as the last two scenarios, I do feel Evil will come in markedly lower than its predecessor. I’ll predict low to mid 30s could be the range and that means around half of the bounty from half a decade ago.
Maleficent: MistressofEvil opening weekend prediction: $32.3 million
For my Zombieland: Double Tap prediction, click here:
Going into this week’s predictions, there was no question that Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman would be the headline. The gangster epic premiered last Friday at the New York Film Festival to overwhelmingly glowing reviews. That reaction has propelled it to the #1 spot in Picture, Director, and kept it there in Adapted Screenplay.
Additionally, the festival greatly increased the chances for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci to land nominations. De Niro makes an appearance in lead for the first time, pushing out Antonio Banderas. Pacino enters Supporting Actor, displacing Willem Dafoe. And Pesci rises to the #6 slot in that category.
Yet the movement this Thursday extends beyond Irishman. Renee Zellweger’s title performance in Judy is now #1 in Actress. In Supporting Actress, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers vaults to first position.
In Picture, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes its inaugural showing in my top ten projections. That pushes out Little Women, as we await reaction for it.
Finally, it was revealed (fairly unsurprisingly) that Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell will be released in December for awards consideration. I have the film, Clint, Paul Walter Hauser, Kathy Bates, and its Adapted Screenplay mentioned as possibilities.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Irishman
LOSER OF THE WEEK: The Lighthouse
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
4. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
7. 1917 (PR: 7)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. The Farewell (PR: 10)
10. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker (PR: 12)
12. Little Women (PR: 9)
13. Waves (PR: 13)
14. Just Mercy (PR: 18)
15. Pain and Glory (PR: 14)
16. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)
17. Judy (PR: 23)
18. Booksmart (PR: 21)
19. Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Bombshell (PR: 16)
21. The Report (PR: 20)
22. Dark Waters (PR: 22)
23. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Rocketman (PR: 25)
25. Ad Astra (PR: 17)
Dropped Out:
The Lighthouse
Knives Out
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
10. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 11)
12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 14)
14. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 13)
15. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
8. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 9)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 11)
12. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 13)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Matt Damon, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 8)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 10)
11. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)
13. Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)
15. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love
Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
2. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
4. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 11)
9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 12)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 9)
13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 13)
14. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Anna Paquin, The Irishman
Octavia Spencer, Luce
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
When it comes to Oscar prognosticating, it’s been a fairly quiet weekend without any festivals or particularly high profile screenings. Yet that’s bound to change tomorrow because The Irishman cometh.
Two months ahead of its Netflix debut, Martin Scorsese’s epic gangster drama with Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci will open the New York Film Festival. There are a few notable Academy hopefuls that haven’t screened like 1917, Bombshell, Little Women, and Dark Waters. Mr. Scorsese’s latest is the most eagerly awaited and we will know its potential Oscar viability in just a few hours (expect my individual post for it no later than Saturday).
So as we await that verdict, there were some developments in the past week:
I have moved Christian Bale from lead actor to supporting and that means he’s in for the first time, replacing Jamie Foxx.
Awkwafina gets the Best Actress #5 spot over Alfre Woodard.
The Two Popes has shifted to Adapted Screenplay and that takes Joker out.
The misfortune for Joker continues as I’ve moved it out of my top ten Picture projections in favor of The Farewell.
With Popes removed from Original Screenplay, Waves takes its slot.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: The Farewell
LOSER OF THE WEEK: Joker
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 10)
10. The Farewell (PR: 13)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Joker (PR: 9)
13. Waves (PR: 12)
14. Pain and Glory (PR: 18)
15. A Hidden Life (PR: 15)
16. Bombshell (PR: 16)
17. Ad Astra (PR: 23)
18. Just Mercy (PR: 14)
19. The Lighthouse (PR: 17)
20. The Report (PR: 21)
21. Booksmart (PR: 19)
22. Dark Waters (PR: 20)
23. Judy (Not Ranked)
24. Rocketman (PR: 24)
25. Knives Out (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
The Good Liar
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
11. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)
12. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 14)
13. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 15)
14. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
15. James Gray, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 10)
10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
11. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 9)
12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 12)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 13)
14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 14)
15. Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
9. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: 13)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 12)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 14)
13. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)
14. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)
15. Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to Supporting)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 5)
8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 9)
11. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: 10)
12. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 11)
13. Tracy Letts, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 13)
14. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 12)
15. Chris Evans, Knives Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jamie Bell, Rocketman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
OtherPossibilities:
6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 6)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
9. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 12)
10. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 11)
11. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
13. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)
15. Octavia Spencer, Luce (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory
Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original)
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Some events from over the last week:
By Friday next week, The Irishman will have screened and we will know how much of a contender it truly is. I’ve held it as a placeholder in first since I started my projections a month ago. I’m shaking it up a bit and sliding the picture and Martin Scorsese to third. That means Marriage Story takes over in slot one for Pic and Quentin Tarantino is first for direction.
Winning the Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival, Jojo Rabbit got just the shot in the arm it needed after mixed reviews. 10 of the past 11 Toronto recipients have nabbed a Best Picture nod. So it’s back in my mix. It replaces Waves.
In Director, Sam Mendes is back in with James Mangold out.
No changes to the top five in Best Actor. . In Actress and Supporting Actress – same story as even 1-5 rankings remain consistent.
In Supporting Actor, it’s Willem Dafoe returning to the predictions over Sterling K. Brown.
The five Adapted Screenplays haven’t changed while in Original, it’s The Farewell over Waves.
WINNER OF THE WEEK: Jojo Rabbit
LOSER OF THE WEEK: Waves
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 10)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 14)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
9. Joker (PR: 8)
10. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Waves (PR: 9)
13. The Farewell (PR:12)
14. Just Mercy (PR: 13)
15. A Hidden Life (PR: 19)
16. Bombshell (PR: 18)
17. The Lighthouse (PR: 20)
18. Pain and Glory (PR: 16)
19. Booksmart (PR: 22)
20. Dark Waters (PR: 17)
21. The Report (PR: 15)
22. Knives Out (PR: 21)
23. Ad Astra (PR: 25)
24. Rocketman (PR: 24)
25. The Good Liar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queen and Slim
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Noah Baumbach, MarriageStory (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 4)
5. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 5)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 13)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes (PR: 9)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
11. Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 11)
12. Terrence Malick, A Hidden Life (PR: 12)
13. Todd Phillips, Joker (Not Ranked)
14. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (PR: 15)
15. Trey Edward Shults, Waves (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Todd Haynes, Dark Waters
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 3)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 2)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 6)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
11. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (PR: 11)
12. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy (PR: 10)
13. Brad Pitt, Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen and Slim
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Lesley Manville, Ordinary Love (PR: 10)
10. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
11. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim (PR: 11)
12. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts (PR: 14)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 12)
14. Kristen Stewart, Seberg (PR: 13)
15. Elle Fanning, Teen Spirit (PR: 15)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 2)
3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 3)
4. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Meryl Streep, Little Women (PR: 8)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory (PR: 10)
11. Meryl Streep, The Laundromat (PR: 7)
12. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (PR: 11)
13. Anna Paquin, The Irishman (PR: 13)
14. Anne Hathaway, Dark Waters (PR: 12)
15. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Waves
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 2)
Well, a lot has certainly transpired on the Oscar prognostication front in the past week! Most notably would be the Toronto Film Festival and as usual, it helped some pictures and performers and threw shade on the hopes of others.
For blog followers, you’ve seen a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts over the last few days. Various rankings in the eight major categories have shifted as we arrive at today’s predictions with some newcomers hitting predicted territory.
Let’s go through some highlights:
One of the more unexpected events from up north was the love for Hustlers, out tomorrow. The attention was particularly centered on the performance of Jennifer Lopez. She goes from unranked all the way to #3 in Supporting Actress.
TheTwoPopes is gathering more admirers as it plays the circuit. I now have it #4 in my BP derby (up five spots). This could change, but I think it’s one of a handful of pics that could win top prize.
Joker surprised many by emerging victorious for the Golden Lion at Venice. It now enters the fray as a predicted nominee in BP and Adapted Screenplay, in addition to Joaquin Phoenix.
Like Popes, Waves is also making a festival splash and it enters my projected BP recipients in ninth.
My projections in the lead acting categories remains the same ten, albeit with some jockeying from last week to this one.
In Supporting Actor, lots of movement. Tom Hanks was heralded for his portrayal of Mister Rogers in Toronto for Marielle Heller’s ABeautifulDayintheNeighborhood. I also have Sterling K. Brown in Waves pulling a J-Lo and going from not ranked to nominee. And Jamie Foxx in JustMercy is drawing acclaim so he joins the shortlist. They replace Willem Dafoe, Al Pacino, and Taika Waititi in a crowded field.
Speaking of Waititi, JojoRabbit was met with wildly divergent opinions in Toronto. I now have it only receiving an Adapted Screenplay nod, but expect its journey to Oscar attention or no attention to be an ongoing story.
Harriet seemed to be a bit of a Toronto disappointment. While I’m still listing Cynthia Erivo’s work as the title character in Actress, the movie itself has dropped completely out of my top 25.
There is no doubt that the badly reviewed TheGoldfinch has seen its Academy dreams totally vanish.
Keep reading on to see how I have everything shaking out at the moment and I’ll have updates forecasts next Thursday!
A lot can change in a week and that’s certainly the case in my second edition of weekly Oscar predictions for 2019. That’s because the Venice and Telluride festivals have happened and numerous contenders have emerged. Some have seen their fortunes dwindle (like Steven Soderbergh’s TheLaundromat or Edward Norton’s MotherlessBrooklyn). Other films and performances have received a serious boost like FordvFerrari, Waves (not even on my radar last week), TheTwoPopes, and Renee Zellweger in Judy.
While last Thursday provided my pre festival rankings, there’s plenty of movement that’s occurred since then. And by next Thursday… the picture will begin more clear with the Toronto Film Festival beginning today and where several other high profile hopefuls will screen.
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