The blog’s early look at the 2021 Oscar contenders arrives at Best Director. If you didn’t see the posts outlining my initial picks for the acting derbies, take a look here:
In 2020, my first estimates in the directorial field yielded 2 eventual nominees: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). The three others were not even mentioned: Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), and surprise contender Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round).
Here’s the players as I see it at this July juncture:
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Other Contenders:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Leos Carax, Annette
Fran Kranz, Mass
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
David O. Russell, Canterbury Glass
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
That leaves only Best Picture and it will be posted in short order!
The big victor at the Cannes Film Festival turned out to be an anticlimactic announcement when jury president Spike Lee accidentally revealed it at the beginning of the evening. Julia Ducournau’s Titane, said to be one of the most shocking and viscerally thrilling entries coming out of the French Riviera, won the Palme d’Or (the fest’s equivalent of Best Picture).
This is a gift for distributor Neon as they will handle its domestic distribution. Sporting a 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, could Titane enter the Oscar conversation in Best International Feature Film? The three previous Palme recipients from 2017-2019 managed to do so (The Square, Shoplifters, Parasite). Remember there was no competition in 2020. My feeling is that it’s a contender though I doubt it will cross over for Best Picture consideration (and a win) like Parasite did.
The Grand Prix award (basically runner-up) was split between Asghar Farhadi’s Iranian drama A Hero and Juho Kuosmanen’s Russian feature Compartment No. 6. Of those two, the latter has the best opportunity to break through with the Academy.
Leos Carax is best director for his opening night selection Annette. The musical drama starring Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard elicited strong reactions (mostly positive, some negative) from the French crowd and it is a major question mark heading into awards season.
Caleb Landry Jones, seen in numerous supporting roles recently like Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, was named Best Actor for the thriller Nitram. Winning over higher profile contenders like Driver and Simon Rex (Red Rocket), the eventual stateside distributor would need to mount quite a campaign for Jones to be in contention, but you never know.
Same goes for Best Actress Renate Reinsve in The World Person in the World, the Norwegian romantic comedic drama which had ardent admirers at the fest. This is a picture to keep an eye on as well that the international voters could pick up on.
Lastly, Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch was perhaps the most notable premiere, but it came up empty-handed when all was settled. It could still certainly be a factor at the Oscars despite not getting a boost here.
For my blog readers, expect more Oscar Watch posts in the coming days as I sort out all the Cannes action and that will include Titane, The World Person in the World, and more. Stay tuned!
The film community (and Oscar prognosticators like yours truly) are experiencing another return to normalcy today as the Cannes Film Festival kicked off today. The French fest is starting two months later than we are accustomed to, but it’s in-person and showcasing at least a handful of potential awards contenders.
The 2020 Cannes experience, before its cancellation, was supposed to feature Leos Carax’s Annette. The acclaimed auteur makes his English language debut in this musical headlined by Adam Driver and Marion Cotillard. Early reviews are up and they indicate this will be a polarizing picture. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 85% for the moment.
Driver stars as a comedian (nearly all critics compare his character to Andy Kaufman) in a bad romance with Cotillard’s opera singer. This sounds like a meaty and memorable role for Driver. I’ll let you read about what he’s doing during a particular number called “We Love Each Other So Much”. Buzz indicates Cotillard (a Best Actress winner in 2007 for La Vie en Rose and nominee in 2014 for Two Days, One Night) may not have enough of a role to compete for a third recognition. If so, it would probably come in Supporting Actress. Some reviews have praised Simon Helberg’s supporting role. The Big Bang Theory costar likely came close to a nod for 2016’s Florence Foster Jenkins. This would have to generate a lot of love for him to be a factor.
That leaves Driver and his biggest 2021 competition could be himself. He will appear this autumn in not one, but two eagerly awaited Ridley Scott directed hopefuls. This includes a possibility at Supporting Actor in The Last Duel and especially in the lead derby for House of Gucci. If the latter doesn’t become a serious contender, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him gather his third try at gold in the past four years. Driver nabbed a supporting mention for 2018’s BlacKkKlansman and the following year in the lead with Marriage Story.
There could be numerous potential slots for its original songs which were composed by rock band Sparks (they’re subject to an appreciated documentary out now made by Edgar Wright). Initial attention includes numerous shoutouts to opening tune “So May We Start”.
Some of the raves indicate that the Cannes crowd may eat this up more than the Academy. Expect the chatter to include some pining for its inclusion in the ten Best Pic finalists and others saying it has no place there. Amazon Studios, which will put this in theaters August 6 and on their streaming service two weeks later, will need to mount quite a campaign for it to make the cut.
Bottom line: hey, festivals are back and I’m loving it! Not everyone is loving Annette, but there’s enough admirers early on to keep it on the radar. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have arrived at Week #2 for my Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. I do so as the Venice Film Festival has kicked off with Telluride and Toronto slated to virtually get underway in the coming days. That means quite a few Oscar Watch posts will be up in short order, including for several of the features predicted below.
Since last Thursday, I’ve written only two Watch entries. Mulan isn’t likely to be a factor in any of the big races, but it could definitely contend for some technical categories. The forthcoming horror pic Antebellum didn’t impress critics and won’t be mentioned again here. If you would like to peruse those posts, you can do so here:
When I wrote my initial guesstimates one week ago, it was on the following day that movie lovers across the globe were hit with tragic news. The loss of Chadwick Boseman to colon cancer has shocked and saddened all of us. Despite his acclaimed performances in 42, Get On Up, and his iconic work as Black Panther, Mr. Boseman has yet to receive a nomination from the Academy. Last Thursday, I already had him listed at #2 in Supporting Actor for the upcoming Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is now listed first as is his costar Viola Davis in Best Actress.
Here are some other developments of note:
I am still higher on Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods (which also featured Boseman) than some other prognosticators. I have it listed for inclusion in Best Picture, Actor (Delroy Lindo), and Original Screenplay. However, its numbers have fallen a bit and I am taking Spike Lee out of my Director five.
My estimated eight Best Picture nominees has remained intact with some shifting in the rankings.
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Paul Greengrass (News of the World) are in for Director with the aforementioned Spike Lee and Francis Lee (Ammonite) out.
The five in Actress has not changed. In Actor, I’ve made the move to take Bill Murray’s performance in On the Rocks and put it in the supporting field. That allows for Tom Hanks (News of the World) to move up. In general, I have soured a bit on Rocks. You’ll see below that its numbers have dropped precipitously.
Supporting Actress also includes the same five women and that’s also the case with Supporting Actor.
Though I don’t have it in the top five, I’ve corrected French Exit to be listed in Adapted Screenplay as opposed to Original. Soul replaces The French Dispatch in Original for the moment while The Father vaults over West Side Story in Adapted.
As you’ll see, there’s plenty of new faces being mentioned for the first time that didn’t make the list last week and others who have dropped.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
4. Dune (PR: 6)
5. News of the World (PR: 7)
6. Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
8. West Side Story (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 16)
10. Soul (PR: 14)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
13. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
15. Minari (PR: 18)
16. The Father (PR: 17)
17. Annette (PR: 13)
18. Stillwater (PR: 21)
19. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 22)
20. Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Tenet (PR: 15)
22. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 24)
24. French Exit (PR: 25)
25. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
On the Rocks
C’Mon C’Mon
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
7. Francis Lee, Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8)
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 9)
10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
11. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
12. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 11)
13. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 12)
14. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Christopher Nolan, Tenet (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Leos Carax, Annette
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 3)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 14)
8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 7)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 11)
10. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 8)
11. Marion Cotillard, Annette
12. Julianne Moore, The Glorias (PR: 9)
13. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley (PR: 15)
14. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 13)
15. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 3)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 7)
8. Matt Damon, Stillwater (PR: 13)
9. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 8)
10. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10)
13. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 14)
14. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story (PR: 9)
15. Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Murray, On the Rocks (moved to Supporting Actor)
Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 14)
8. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater (PR: 9)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire (PR: 8)
14. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 11)
15. Kristin Scott Thomas, Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Pelphrey, Mank (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
8. Tom Burke, Mank (PR: 6)
9, Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 12)
10. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Lucas Hedges, French Exit (PR: 9)
14. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 10)
15. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
Oscar Isaac, Dune
Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Ammonite (PR: 4)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Stillwater (PR: 11)
10. Promising Young Woman (PR: 15)
11. Annette (PR: 13)
12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
13. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
14. Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tenet (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
French Exit (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Dune (PR: 2)
4. The Father (PR: 6)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 8)
8. West Side Story (PR: 4)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 13)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
11. French Exit (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)
12. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9)
13. The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 11)
15. Respect (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it with updated predictions next Thursday!
As is tradition on the blog, my weekly Oscar prediction posts (coming to you each Thursday) kick off in the final weekend of August!
So while I’m following up with my normal Academy Awards speculating schedule, I am doing so in a year that is anything but traditional. The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously altered release schedules for many pictures. This has left many release dates still uncertain.
Additionally, I have chosen this late August date because it’s usually right before some high-profile film festivals like Toronto, Venice, and Telluride are set to kick off. Some of these fests are continuing to operate in a much different fashion. We will see some of the titles identified below (including Nomadland, Ammonite and One Night in Miami) screen at these virtual competitions in the coming days.
This week, one significant contender had its unveiling for critics and that’s Christopher Nolan’s Tenet. That reaction leads me to believe that it will certainly contend in a half dozen or so technical races, but that a Picture or Directing nod is a bit of a long shot.
Even in a year without the pandemic related challenges, Oscar speculation this early always comes with numerous caveats. They include the following:
Release dates will change and some movies listed here will get pushed back. This sure applies to 2020 and that’s even with the Academy extending eligibility to any features released in January and February of 2021.
There will be pics and performances that come out of nowhere and make their way to the release calendar that aren’t identified here.
Some performances listed in lead will shift to supporting and vice versa. For titles like David Fincher’s Mank, Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch – category placement for their large casts is still a question mark. As an example, there’s lot of potential contenders in The French Dispatch, but it’s impossible to determine who gets the critical shine. For the time being, I’m not listing any of the actors in that particular film.
There will be Original Screenplay hopefuls that turn out to be Adapted and vice versa.
Even with all those caveats, I was able to identify the winners in each of the top 8 categories in both 2018 and 2019. Their numeric placement varied widely. In 2018, I had Best Picture victor Green Book all the way down at 21 of my first initial 25 possibilities. Roma director Alfonso Cuaron, on the other hand, was placed at #2. Bohemian Rhapsody‘s Rami Malek was at #12 in Best Actor with Olivia Colman in The Favourite at 9th in Actress. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) was 9th and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) was 2nd in the supporting fields. Adapted Screenplay winner BlacKkKlansman was in fifth with Original Screenplay recipient Green Book at #11.
As for 2019, Best Picture winner Parasite was originally placed in slot #7 while its director Bong Joon-Ho was fifth. In the lead acting companions, Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) was 6th and Renee Zellweger (Judy) was fifth. In Supporting Actor, Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) was perched at #1 and that never changed. Supporting Actress Laura Dern (Marriage Story) was #2. Adapted Screenplay Jojo Rabbit was fourth and Original Screenplay Parasite was 5th.
So based on history, you’re likely seeing the eventual 2020 Oscar winners somewhere here on these listings. In 2020, though, who really knows?
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. Nomadland
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. Ammonite
6. Dune
7. News of the World
8. West Side Story
Other Possibilities
9. The French Dispatch
10. Hillbilly Elegy
11. On the Rocks
12. Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Annette
14. Soul
15. Tenet
16. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
17. The Father
18. Minari
19. C’Mon C’Mon
20. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
21. Stillwater
22. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
24. Next Goal Wins
25. French Exit
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
3. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
Other Possibilities:
6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World
8. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
9. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
10. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
11. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
12. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
13. Christopher Nolan, Tenet
14. Leos Carax. Annette
15. Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
7. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
9. Julianne Moore, The Glorias
10. Marion Cotillard, Annette
11. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
12. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks
13. Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
14. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
15. Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
2. Gary Oldman, Mank
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World
7. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
8. Adam Driver, Annette
9. Ansel Elgort, West Side Story
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
11. Timothee Chalamet, Dune
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
13. Matt Damon, Stillwater
14. Trevante Rhodes, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
15. Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
3. Olivia Colman, The Father
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
7. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
8. Debra Winger, Kajillionaire
9. Abigail Breslin, Stillwater
10. Gaby Hoffman, C’Mon C’Mon
11. Mary J. Blige, Respect
12. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune
13. Meryl Streep, The Prom
14. Nicole Kidman, The Prom
15. Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Strathairn, Nomadland
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Burke, Mank
7. Tom Pelphrey, Mank
8. David Alvarez, West Side Story
9. Lucas Hedges, French Exit
10. Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
11. Jesse Plemons, Judas and the Black Messiah
12. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
13. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods
14. Oscar Isaac, Dune
15. Forest Whitaker, Respect
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Da 5 Bloods
4. Ammonite
5. The French Dispatch
Other Possibilities:
6. Soul
7. On the Rocks
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
9. C’Mon C’Mon
10. Minari
11. Stillwater
12. French Exit
13. Annette
14. Tenet
15. Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland
2. Dune
3. News of the World
4. West Side Story
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Other Possibilities:
6. The Father
7. Hillbilly Elegy
8. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
9. Next Goal Wins
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday
11. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
12. The White Tiger
13. One Night in Miami
14. Respect
15. The Midnight Sky
I’ll be back at it next Thursday, folks! Until then…
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