Oscar Predictions: September 5

Tim Fehlbaum’s September 5 covers similar ground as Steven Spielberg’s 2005 Best Picture nominee Munich regarding the 1972 Olympics hostage crisis. This version, which premiered at Venice and made its way over to Telluride, tells it from the perspective of the ABC broadcasting crew covering the games. John Magaro, Peter Sarsgaard, Ben Chaplin, and Leonie Benesch star.

Reviews from Italy and Colorado are impressive as the pic has emerged as a festival sleeper in recent days. Part of its flying under the radar status is the current lack of a stateside distributor. That should change soon. The question is whether September 5 gets dated for a 2024 release or if the buyer waits for 2025 consideration. Either way, I wouldn’t sleep on its chances for Picture, Original Screenplay, and Editing if it is granted a serious campaign. In 2003, Sarsgaard likely barely missed the Supporting Actor cut for Shattered Glass. Of the main cast, he might receive the heftiest push as legendary sports executive Roone Arledge. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Teachers’ Lounge

Germany has picked The Teachers’ Lounge as its hopeful for Best International Feature Film as they try to keep their impressive track record running in this 21st century. The dramatic thriller from Ilker Çatak premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival and has continued playing the festival circuit. Leonie Benesch stars in a role earning acclaim and the pic itself stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 25 reviews.

As mentioned, the submitting nation has seen its share of successes in recent years. Just last year, All Quiet on the Western Front won the IFF derby. Others victors this century are Nowhere in Africa (2002) and The Lives of Others (2006). Six others selections have made the contending quintet.

At this early juncture, England’s The Zone of Interest and France’s The Taste of Things are probably the frontrunners for the statue. Then there’s three spots available for a host of feasible nominees. Lounge is certainly one of them and I wouldn’t underestimate it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…