Earlier this year, I completed a blog series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 for the past couple of years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned 14 posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them!
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2007 and 2008 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We begin with the obvious. There’s a quintet of titles that would’ve made the dance because they already did. Martin Scorsese’s The Departed was the first title from the legendary filmmaker to win BP and he also won his only statue for direction. It additionally took home Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing and nabbed Mark Wahlberg a Supporting Actor nod.
The other four contenders were Babel from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, picking up 7 nominations with its sole victory in Original Score. Clint Eastwood’s Letters from Iwo Jima got in for BP, Director, Original Screenplay, and won for Sound Editing. Little Miss Sunshine had two trophies for Supporting Actor (Alan Arkin) and Original Screenplay. Helen Mirren’s podium trip in Actress for Stephen Frears’s The Queen was the only win in its six mentions.
So what else? Bill Condon’s Dreamgirls managed to underperform on nominations morning and still lead with 8 overall nods. Jennifer Hudson took Supporting Actress and it was honored for its Sound Mixing. Despite it not garnering BP, Director, or a screenplay mention, I think it gets in with an expanded ten.
Same goes for Blood Diamond which went 0 for 5 but scored key noms in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou), and Film Editing.
Todd Field’s Little Children got BP love at Critics Choice and the Globes with Oscar nods for Actress (Kate Winslet), Supporting Actor (Jackie Earle Haley), and Adapted Screenplay. The acclaim probably puts it in.
Paul Greengrass made the final five for his direction of United 93, which also had a Film Editing mention. It makes my cut as well.
As for the 10th slot, options abound. Al Gore’s environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth was a box office success (especially for the genre) and went 2/2 in its nominations in Documentary Feature and Original Song. I almost picked it to make the ten. Notes on a Scandal received four mentions for its leads Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench and its adapted screenplay and score. You could easily put it in the mix and I wouldn’t argue. Children of Men from Alfonso Cuaron received three noms in Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Clint Eastwood had another WWII epic with Flags of Our Fathers which was up in both sound races. And Borat was a buzzy phenomenon which received an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Yet I’m going with Pan’s Labyrinth as my final selection. Even though it lost the Foreign Language Film race to Germany’s The Lives of Others, Guillermo del Toro’s creation was up in six races and won three – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Makeup.
The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.
Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).
I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.
For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.
The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.
In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.
Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.
My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.
Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)
5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Teo Yoo, Past Lives
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)
5. Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)
4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)
4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)
5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Teachers’ Lounge
Io capitano
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“High Life” from Flora and Son
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)
That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
10 Nominations
Poor Things
9 Nominations
Barbie
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Maestro
5 Nominations
Past Lives
4 Nominations
The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.
In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).
Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.
Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.
For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.
As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.
Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.
With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.
A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.
Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
The Book of Clarence
The Iron Claw
A Thousand and One
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predited Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay
One Life
BlackBerry
Next Goal Wins
The Nickel Boys
Dumb Money
The Killer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
The Boy and the Heron
La Chimera
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
One Life
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)
8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)
10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
The Little Mermaid
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
4 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol
Last year, the Best Supporting Actress race was upended when it was announced that Michelle Williams of Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in the lead Actress competition. Williams was seen as the strong frontrunner in the supporting field. Her placement in the more crowded Actress derby took her from a predicted winner to a question mark as to whether she’d even make the final five. She did, but lost to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once and she was never looked at as a threat to win. Her omission from the supporting category made it a wide open race where Jamie Lee Curtis (also from Everything Everywhere) eventually prevailed.
And now… history repeats itself. In each one of my predictions for the 96th Academy Awards this year, I have had Lily Gladstone listed #1 in Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Ever since it premiered at Cannes (before its October 20th domestic bow), reviews have indicated she’s a standout performance among heavy hitters like Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, and Jesse Plemons. Like Williams, she was a heavy favorite for supporting. And just like Williams, there’s now an announcement that Gladstone will vie for Best Actress.
What’s it mean? Let’s start with Supporting Actress. With Gladstone out, it is now an uncertain race with no frontrunner. One could emerge when The Color Purple premieres with either Danielle Brooks (who I’ve consistently had ranked second) or Taraji P. Henson (who’s often been third). It potentially opens the door for Emily Blunt to not only nab her first nom for Oppenheimer, but maybe make it to the stage. It also increases the chances for hopefuls like Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers), Viola Davis (Air), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), or Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) to get in.
As for Best Actress, I believe Gladstone ends up in the grouping. Yet she might not be the automatic favorite like she was in supporting. Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) are serious competitors. Fantasia Barrino from The Color Purple could be as well. And there’s Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Annette Bening (Nyad), Natalie Portman (May December), and Cailee Spaeney (Priscilla) to consider. In other words (like Williams), Gladstone has made her road to gold tougher though still achievable.
When I update my Oscar predictions this weekend, you can expect to see Gladstone in the Actress five. Whether she’s #1 like she’s been in supporting is very much still in question.
Awards prospects for Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction rose precipitously today as it won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Per a previous post hours ago, that particular honor has been a major harbinger for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 14 of the past 15 recipients have achieved a BP nod and five have taken the prize.
Fiction marks the directorial debut of Jefferson and the race relations dramedy is led by Jeffrey Wright. Based on buzz from up north, the actor could absolutely snag a spot in Best Actor. Yet as I’ve mentioned before, that is a stacked race that includes hopefuls like Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers).
The supporting cast includes Tracee Ellis Ross, Erika Alexander, Leslie Uggams, Sterling K. Brown, John Ortiz, Issa Rae, Adam Brody, and Keith David. It’s likely Wright (vying for his first nomination) is the feasible nominee if he can break through the crowded pack.
Adapted Screenplay might be the best bet for inclusion, but I can’t stress enough how major the TIFF People’s Choice victory is. Expect it to materialize in lots of BP top tens starting today and I very well may follow suit in my imminent update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kristoffer Borgli’s dark comedy Dream Scenario premiered at the Toronto Film Festival prior to its November 10th theatrical release. The A24 effort casts Nicolas Cage as a nerdy professor who inexplicably starts showing up in people’s dreams. Julianne Nicholson, Michael Cera, Tim Meadows, Dylan Gelula, and Dylan Baker costar.
The Dream reviews are mostly on the plus side with an 84% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s really only two categories where I see Oscar possibilities. Mr. Cage is being praised for his work. He could be in line for a third Best Actor nod behind 1995’s Leaving Las Vegas (for which he won) and 2002’s Adaptation. He likely came close to his third nod for 2021’s Pig. Yet as I’ve already discussed on this blog, there’s a quintet of contenders who already look strong in the race. That would be Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). It almost seems too easy, right? That’s why I figure at least one of those gentlemen get snubbed. Cage could fill the gap, but there’s other hopefuls in the mix. I think his chances to be named in the Musical/Comedy competition at the Golden Globes is stronger.
Original Screenplay is feasible and perhaps even more so if A24 campaigns hard for it. Nominations in those two derbies are the dream scenario with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At this impossibly early stage of the Oscar predicting calendar, one could actually make a decent argument that the final five of the Best Actor category could be set. That might seem like a silly thing to say, but it’s entirely possible that the quintet I have ranked 1-5 end up being the contenders. We have arrived at the leading gentlemen in my deep dives into six major categories at the 96th Academy Awards. If you missed my write-ups on the supporting derbies, you can access them here:
The Venice and Telluride fests and the ongoing one in Toronto have shed light on some hopefuls and increased their chances. They’ve also winnowed the field in my opinion. Adam Driver probably won’t be feted for Ferrari nor is Michael Fassbender looking likely for The Killer or Next Goal Wins. Barry Keoghan has a better shot than either of them for Saltburn, but the film’s divisive reaction may hurt him. On the other hand, Andrew Scott has established himself as a serious possibility for All of Us Strangers. So have Anthony Hopkins in One Life and (perhaps to a lesser degree) Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction.
Yet I can’t shake the strange feeling that the five might look like a combo of already screened and/or released titles (including one at Cannes). There’s Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon. And the fests of the past few days have showcased the strong chances for Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). That said, I’d say there’s not a clear frontrunner of the group.
It can’t be that simple, can it? Probably not. Yet it’s a sturdy group to bet on at the moment. We’re still waiting to see about Joaquin Phoenix as Napoleon or Kingsley Ben-Adir in Bob Marley: One Love. And perhaps Teo Yoo (Past Lives) or Matt Damon (Air) could materialize for the duo’s already released efforts.
I’m shortening my possible nominees from 15 to 10 and here’s my snapshot of the race right now!
One Life has had its world premiere at the Toronto Film Festival as it seeks one nomination in particular from awards voters. From director James Hawes, it stars Anthony Hopkins as the real-life rescuer of Jewish children before the atrocities of the Holocaust. Johnny Flynn plays the hunger version of his character with Helena Bonham Carter, Lena Olin, and Jonathan Pryce in the supporting cast.
Early reviews put it at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. The stateside release date is TBD though it should be out by year’s end. The bulk of the reaction indicates this is not a BP contender. However, much praise is being heaped on Hopkins. This seems like the type of role that might be bait for the Academy.
As has been discussed in the past couple of weeks, the lead actor race is shaping up to be a barnburner. Surefire contenders (to name just five) include Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), and Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). Had Hopkins not won Best Actor just three years ago for The Father (his second after 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs), I might list him with that quintet. As of now, he could get in but I think he’s on the outside. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
One of the most surprising 21st century Best Actor snubs at the Oscars was Paul Giamatti being left out in 2004 for Alexander Payne’s Sideways. The movie itself nabbed five nominations – Picture, Director, Supporting Actress (Virginia Madsen), Supporting Actor (Thomas Haden Church), and a win for its Adapted Screenplay. Somehow its star couldn’t make his final five.
Giamatti would receive his one and only nom in Supporting Actor the following year with Cinderella Man. Nearly two decades after the Sideways omission, his latest collaboration with Payne could get him the second and first in lead. Dramedy The Holdovers has premiered at Telluride prior to an October 27th limited release and November 10th wide bow.
Early reviews are hailing it as a return to form for Payne (100% right now on RT). His previous effort Downsizing in 2017 underwhelmed critics and crowds. It could be his fourth Best Picture nominee after Sideways, The Descendants, and Nebraska and if he gets in for his direction, that would also be #4. The original screenplay by David Hemingson seems like a shoo-in.
Could Giamatti miss again? Sure. We already have major contenders such as Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Bradley Cooper (Maestro), and Barry Keoghan (Saltburn). Those are just the pics that have already screened. I’d look for Focus Features to make a strong push. They’ll do the same for his costars Da’vine Joy Randolph and newbie Dominic Sessa in their supporting fields. The former probably has the best shot, but don’t discount Sessa. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
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