Tag: leonardo dicaprio

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

Best Picture 2023: The Final Five

As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?

For the 96th Academy Awards, we know Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer would have been one of them. It dominated the show by winning Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less obvious. And I really mean it this time because, with one exception, selecting the others was tough. Here’s my best speculation.

American Fiction

Cord Jefferson’s dramedy performed better than anticipated with five nominations including a win in Adapted Screenplay over heavy hitters Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Other nods were Jeffrey Wright in Actor, Sterling K. Brown for supporting, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying no. Gods and Monsters from 1998 is the last Adapted Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP so that’s what gives this a slight edge.

Anatomy of a Fall

The French legal drama was inexplicably not selected for International Feature Film, but nabbed a quintet of nods that included Director (Justine Triet), Actress (Sandra Hüller), Film Editing, and a victory in Original Screenplay (over The Holdovers and Past Lives).

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I went back and forth on this one and came very close to saying yes. Like with Fiction, there’s a screenplay component at play. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind from 2004 was the previous Original Screenplay winner to not be nominated for BP. In this case, the case for some other pics was just a tad stronger.

Barbie

Greta Gerwig’s smash hit had six other nods in Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, 2 Original Songs, and Production Design. The sole victory was for Billie Eilish’s ballad “What Was I Made For?”.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I went back and forth on this one… you get the idea. I’m going with no with its glaring omission for Gerwig’s direction and Margot Robbie’s snub to a lesser degree. That said, it is certainly feasible that AMPAS could’ve made room had this been a quintet.

The Holdovers

Alexander Payne’s dramedy was a winner in Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph with Paul Giamatti nominated in Actor and nods for Film Editing and Original Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. If Giamatti had taken lead actor or the screenplay been victorious, this would be a tougher choice. I think it’d be on the outside looking in.

Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese’s historial epic had ten overall nominations behind Oppenheimer and Poor Things – directing, Actress (Lily Gladstone), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song, and Production Design. It went 0 for 10 on the night.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes, but I don’t think it’s automatic. No nods for the adapted screenplay or Leonardo DiCaprio in Actor make me questions its inclusion. So do the zero trophies. Yet Scorsese’s clout causes me to grant it a spot.

Maestro

Bradley Cooper’s biopic of Leonard Bernstein is a seven-time nominee for Actor (Cooper), Actress (Carey Mulligan), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound. It did not pick up any of the hardware.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but it did perform quite well as far as nods. Cooper’s exclusion from Best Director was my deciding factor.

Past Lives

Celine Song’s romance was the least nominated of the BP contestants with Original Screenplay as its only other nom.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No and this was the easiest of the five to decide considering the amount of nominations.

Poor Things

The multi-genre experience from Yorgos Lanthimos was second only to Oppenheimer in terms of mentions with 11 including wins for Emma Stone in Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design. Other nods: director, Supporting Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Original Score.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes and this was the easiest of the nine to leave in due to its volume of noms and victories.

The Zone of Interest

The wartime drama from Jonathan Glazer, with Anatomy of a Fall out of competition, easily took International Feature Film while also grabbing a Sound win and noms for direction and Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

I don’t think it is automatic, but yes. I nudged it just past Fall considering the IFF gold.

And that means my final 2023 five would be:

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

I plan to post my selection for 2024 in the near future!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 22nd Edition

As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.

While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.

I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.

The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)

17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)

20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)

21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)

24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sound of Falling

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)

12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)

14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)

11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)

14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emily Watson, Hamnet

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

98th Academy Awards Predictions: June 8th Edition

There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.

With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).

Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)

10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)

15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)

24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)

14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)

13. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (E)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Sinners

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 25th Edition

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.

This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.

There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.

Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.

Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)

2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)

14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)

18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)

20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)

21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)

23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)

24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026

Is This Thing On?

Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)

15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)

11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)

11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)

14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Greta Lee, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jack O’Connell, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colman Domingo, Michael

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (moved to lead actor)

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Brendan Fraser, Pressure

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

98th Academy Awards Predictions: May 4th Edition

In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.

My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)

17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)

18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)

20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)

21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)

22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)

24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)

13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)

13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Nia Long, Michael

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Brendan Fraser, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

98th Academy Awards Predictions: April 21st Edition

A month and change after the 97th ceremony, it is time for my first ranked predictions in Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies! I gave you my first numbered looks around the same juncture in 2023 and 2024. Two years ago, my April outlook yielded the winners being mentioned in Picture and Director (Oppenheimer and Christopher Nolan), Actress (Emma Stone for Poor Things), Actor (Oppenheimer‘s Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer). Last year… not so much.

Neither Anora, its maker (Sean Baker), or Anora herself (Mikey Madison) were named in April of 2024. The film would debut a month later at Cannes and vault itself into contention. The Brutalist also wasn’t on my radar so no mention of Adrien Brody in Actor. In the supporting fields, Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez was initially ranked 11th while Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) was listed in fourth. Hindsight is 20/20 for 2024, but I had Steve McQueen’s Blitz in first position in Best Picture exactly one year ago. It would go onto receive 0 nominations (pressure is on… After the Hunt).

Let’s get some key caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. Some of the pictures will get pushed back to 2026. Obviously there will be movies that turn out underwhelming and disappear from the awards conversation. Festival titles not listed today will rise up and contend.

You can expect these predictions will be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post (probably in the late summer or early fall when festival season goes into overdrive).

This inaugural preview comes as Ryan Coogler’s Sinners rules the box office with terrific reviews and word-of-mouth. At the moment, its Oscar future looks bright. Let’s see how that sentence reads several months down the line.

With all that out of the way – here are my first ranked takes!

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees:

1. After the Hunt

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. The Rivals of Amziah King

7. Hamnet

8. Jay Kelly

9. The Life of Chuck

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another

12. Frankenstein

13. Bugonia

14. Deliver Me from Nowhere

15. The Smashing Machine

16. No Other Choice

17. The Ballad of a Small Player

18. Michael

19. Die, My Love

20. Highest 2 Lowest

21. Kiss of the Spider Woman

22. F1

23. Is This Thing On?

24. Ann Lee

25. Alpha

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

2. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

4. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Other Possibilities:

6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

7. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

12. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

13. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me From Nowhere

14. Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

8. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

13. Jodie Foster, Vie privée

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead

15. Olivia Colman, The Roses

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Other Possibilities:

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

10. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

15. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Other Possibilities:

6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

8. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

10. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

12. Emily Watson, Hamnet

13. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

14. Nia Long, Michael

15. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Colman Domingo, Michael

5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

6. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

11. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

13. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

15. Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme

You can expect another update shortly before the Cannes Film Festival kicks off where contenders like Sentimental Value, The Phoenician Scheme, Alpha, Eddington, Eleanor the Great, and Highest 2 Lowest will get their initial screenings.

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I correctly picked two of the eventual nominees with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) was listed in Other Possibilities. At that early juncture, the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and his probable runner-up Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) weren’t on the radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. For example, one year ago, Chalamet’s work as Bob Dylan was not expected to come out in 2024.

This premiere post projects a second nom in a row for Mr. Chalamet as well as return engagements for past winners George Clooney (a Supporting victory 20 years ago for Syriana) and Matthew McConaughey (lead for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club). Unlike most prognosticators, I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Andrew Scott, Pressure

97th Academy Awards Predictions: December 30th Edition

These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.

The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).

Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joan Chen, Dídi

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29 –

4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)

5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)

8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)

10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)

8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)

5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)

8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)

9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anora

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)

7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)

7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

2023 Performance on December 29th –

3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.

Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

8 Nominations

Conclave

7 Nominations

Wicked

5 Nominations

Anora, The Substance

4 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing

3 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys

2 Nominations

The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Oscars: The Case of Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Godfather Part II (Supporting Actor, 1974, WON); Taxi Driver (Actor, 1976); The Deer Hunter (Actor, 1978); Raging Bull (Actor, 1980, WON); Awakenings (Actor, 1990); Cape Fear (Actor, 1991); Silver Linings Playbook (Supporting Actor, 2012)

The Case for Robert De Niro:

As a crime boss wreaking slow havoc on the Osage nation, De Niro enters his sixth decade in awards contention for his 10th collaboration with Martin Scorsese. He hit the quad of major precursors with nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. If he were to emerge victorious, he would do so in the same race where he nabbed his first OScar 49 years earlier as Vito Corleone in The Godfather Part II. That’s an admittedly cool storyline.

The Case Against Robert De Niro:

Robert Downey Jr.’s narrative for Oppenheimer is also compelling and he’s the frontrunner as he’s picked up the Globe and Critics Choice already. Killers has shown vulnerability with omissions for costar Leonardo DiCaprio and in Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

Not even a legend as large as De Niro seems able to disrupt Downey Jr.’s momentum. The film’s best chance at an Oscar lies with Lily Gladstone.

My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things…