This Christmas brings an onslaught of five new pictures debuting and we begin with Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. This three hour comedy/drama (it’s the director’s longest film, beating out GoodFellas) stars Marty’s favorite collaborator Leonardo DiCaprio as well as Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey. It’s received positive reviews, has had a robust marketing campaign (especially with its awesome first trailer), and looks poised to make some noise over the holiday season.
Originally scheduled to premiere in mid-November, Wolf was switched to December 25th and it certainly does face more competition. American Hustle (which had a solid $19M debut) is going after the same audience in its second weekend. Still, I expect this to have a healthy debut over its five-day rollout.
Last year, adult-oriented pics Les Miserables and Django Unchained made a killing over their Christmas openings. Miserables earned $67 million over six days (Christmas was a Tuesday last year) while Django took in $64 million. With one less day and more competition, I don’t expect Wolf to go that high but its grosses should still impress. Its long running time means less showings but that should only be a small impediment.
I foresee a five-day debut in the 40s and a Merry Christmas indeed for Scorsese and company.
The Wolf of Wall Street opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $44.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:
Continuing with my new blog series – This Day in Movie History – December 20th brings us three more important films celebrating their anniversaries and two celebrity birthdays.
It was seventeen years ago today that the influential horror flick Scream opened. Wes Craven was already a legend in the horror genre for The Last House on the Left and especially A Nightmare on Elm Street. Scream would turn into a smash unexpected hit that spawned three sequels and injected some much needed humor and irony into a genre that was growing stale.
22 years ago today marked the opening of Oliver Stone’s controversial JFK. The picture, no matter what you think of its abundant conspiracy theories, is brauvura filmmaking at a high level and earned Oscar nominations for Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor for Tommy Lee Jones.
Another heavily Oscar nominated pic, Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York, debuted eleven years ago today. It was considered an Academy heavyweight, but lost Picture and Director to Chicago. It would be four years later before Marty would finally be recognized at the ceremony for The Departed. The film is also notable for beginning the Scorsese/DiCaprio partnership that has since spanned to five films thus far.
Today marks Jonah Hill’s big 3-0! You may know him from some of your favorite comedies of the past near decade – The 40 Yr. Old Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, 21 Jump Street, and This is The End. He also broke out dramatically in 2011 with an Oscar nominated turn in Moneyball and is again receiving Academy buzz for his role in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. He’ll be seen next summer in the sequel 22 Jump Street.
Finally, today would have marked the 67th birthday of character actor John Spencer. Known to most viewers as Leo McGarry from TV’s “The West Wing”, Spencer also had a successful film career. He turned up in well-known titles including Sea of Love, Presumed Innocent, The Rock, and Cop Land.
Keeping with my theme of connecting the birthday actors in Six Degrees of Separation:
Jonah Hill was in This is the End with James Franco
James Franco was in City by the Sea with Robert De Niro
Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.
For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
Todd’s Predictions –
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.
Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.
Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.
BEST ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.
BEST ACTRESS
Todd’s Predictions –
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.
Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.
Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.
And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:
PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave
DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Seventeen years ago, Matthew McConaughey burst onto the film scene with a starring role in A Time To Kill, Joel Schumacher’s adaptation of John Grisham’s bestseller. His luck continued into the following year with Steven Spielberg’s Amistad and Robert Zemeckis’s Contact.
After that, things went off the rails a bit as McConaughey headlined one lackluster pic after another. The Newton Boys. EDtv. Two for the Money. And there were too many predictable rom coms (some of which did decent business at the box office): The Wedding Planner, How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, Failure to Launch, Fool’s Good, and Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
The actor’s biggest flop came in 2005 with Sahara, a big budget action spectacle meant to turn McConaughey into the next action star. It failed grossing $68 million domestically against a reported $130 million budget.
For a while, it looked as if McConaughey’s film portfolio would consist of lame rom coms and not much else. In 2011, everything began to turn around with an acclaimed turn in the unexpected hit legal thriller The Lincoln Lawyer. In 2012, McConaughey was lauded for his supporting roles in the indie comedy Bernie and especially Magic Mike, which was a major summer hit.
The actor’s transformation into critical darling has come full circle in 2013 and that’s why he earns a spot in this blog series. First there was Mud, a $10 million budgeted coming of age drama that sits at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has earned $28 million domestically and furthered McConaughey’s status as a performer who suddenly knows how to pick quality material.
It has continued this fall with Dallas Buyer’s Club, where he stars as a drug addicted cowboy in the 1980s who contracts the AIDS virus. McConaughey lost 50 pounds for the part, critics are raving, and chances are that he’s on his way to his first Oscar nomination.
And this Christmas comes a supporting role in The Wolf of Wall Street, Martin Scorsese’s eagerly awaited film about Wall Street corruption. McConaughey is featured prominently in the pic’s brilliant trailer and this looks to be the actor’s third winner in a row for 2013.
McConaughey has been a terrific example of what happens when a quality actor stops slumming with projects he chooses and goes a different and more fascinating route. In 2013 and beyond, McConaughey is reaping the benefits of his decision. His next project up in 2014: starring in Christopher Nolan’s next feature Interstellar that is sure to be one of the next year’s most anticipated titles. For McConaughey lately, everything has indeed been alright alright.
Part five of my six part blog series focusing on performers with great 2013’s rolls on tomorrow with a comedic actress who broke out in 2011 and solidified her box office clout this year.
Today marks 20 years ago that an incredibly promising acting career was cut tragically short due to drug addiction.
At the age of 23, Oscar nominee River Phoenix collapsed outside the Viper Room in Los Angeles due to a heroin and cocaine overdose. In just an eight year period, Phoenix had earned the status of one of the finest actors of his generation. His first film role came alongside a young Ethan Hawke in Joe Dante’s 1985 cult sci-fi flick Explorers.
By the following year, River really broke out with roles in Rob Reiner’s terrific Stand by Me and alongside Harrison Ford in the well-reviewed The Mosquito Coast.
In 1988, Mr. Phoenix received a Supporting Actor nod for his impressive work in Sidney Lumet’s Running on Empty, which is a picture well worth seeking out.
In 1989, Phoenix’s biggest commercial success would come in the opening scenes of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where he played a young Indy quite believably.
In 1991, he would costar with Keanu Reeves in Gus Van Sant’s acclaimed My Own Private Idaho, where he won the National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actor. That same year he starred with Lili Taylor in the critical favorite Dogfight.
More commercial success would follow in 1992 with Sneakers, in which he played a supporting role alongside heavyweights Robert Redford, Ben Kingsley, and Sidney Poitier.
It’s hard to imagine, but River Phoenix would only be 43 years old if not for the fateful Halloween evening in 1993. There is little doubt that his career would have persisted onwards and upwards alonside contemporaries like Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, and Leonardo DiCaprio.
The family legacy has certainly continued. It was River’s younger brother who placed the 911 call while River fought for his life. Joaquin Phoenix and his brilliant work in Walk the Line, The Master, and his Oscar buzzworthy turn in the upcoming Her carries on the tradition of great acting that his big brother started.
In 1976, Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver was seen as a strong possibility to win Best Picture at the Oscars until a boxing movie unexpectedly captured audiences attention and took the prize. That would, of course, be Rocky. Fast forward to 2004 where Scorsese’s Howard Hughes biopic The Aviator seemed to be the odds-on favorite for Best Pic until, yet again, a pugilistic tale surprised moviegoers late in the awards season.
Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby wasn’t even talked about much as an awards contender during 2004’s calendar year. It was released very late in the year, but it turned out to be great timing.
Baby would win the top award over The Aviator, as well as Marc Forster’s Finding Neverland, Taylor Hackford’s Ray, and Alexander Payne’s Sideways.
As for other contenders not recognized, the Academy would ignore Quentin Tarantino’s fantastic Kill Bill and its Volume II after snubbing the first installment the year prior. It’s also worth noting that the greatest Harry Potter flick in the franchise (in my view) Prisoner of Azkaban could have been honored too. And there’s Michel Gondry’s highly original critical favorite Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. And a favorite of audiences – Mel Gibson’s mega-blockbuster Passion of the Christ. Any of one of these pics should have at least replaced Finding Neverland, which was decent but doesn’t belong in the category.
The Baby boom would extend to Eastwood, who won Best Director exactly a dozen years after winning the same award for Unforgiven. This prevented Scorsese from winning his first Oscar. Other nominees included Hackford, Payne, and Mike Leigh for Vera Drake.
Once again – Gondry, Tarantino, and Gibson are names worth mentioning that didn’t get in the mix.
Jamie Foxx would take Best Actor for his dead-on portrayal of the legendary singer Ray Charles in Ray, winning out over Leonardo DiCaprio in The Aviator, Don Cheadle in Hotel Rwanda, Eastwood in Million Dollar Baby, and Johnny Depp in Finding Neverland.
One major snub was Paul Giamatti for his fine work in Sideways. The Academy yet again snubbed Jim Carrey in Eternal Sunshine.
Hilary Swank won her second Best Actress award in five years for Baby (in 1999, she was victorious in Boys Don’t Cry). Other nominees: Annette Bening in Being Julia, Catalina Sandino Moreno in Maria Full of Grace, Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake, and Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine.
Once again, it was Uma Thurman left out for her work in the Kill Bill franchise.
Morgan Freeman would win his first Oscar in the Supporting Actor race for Million Dollar Baby over Alan Alda in The Aviator, Thomas Haden Church for Sideways, Jamie Foxx in Collateral, and Clive Owen in Closer.
Not to keep bringing up Kill Bill, but the late David Carradine should have been nominated.
The Aviator would finally receive some Academy recognition with Cate Blanchett winning Supporting Actress with her portrayal as Katherine Hepburn. Other nominees: Laura Linney in Kinsey, Virginia Madsen for Sideways, Sophie Okonedo in Hotel Rwanda, and Natalie Portman for Closer.
After all my mentions for Kill Bill and Eternal Sunshine receiving snubs, there’s one other 2004 pic that demonstrates the Academy’s constant ability to ignore comedies. So I give you the following snubs –
Best Actor – Will Ferrell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Steve Carell, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – Paul Rudd, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Supporting Actor – David Koechner, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene Involving a Cannonball – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Scene With a Dog Being Punted – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
Best Rendition of “Afternoon Delight” In a Movie: Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
I’ll be back with Oscar History: 2005 soon, my friends!
With all my box office predictin’ and such, I’ve slacked off a bit on my 2013 Summer Movie Preview. So far, I’ve covered sequels, action flicks, comedies, sci-fi entries, franchise hopefuls like The Lone Ranger and The Mortal Instruments, and superhero movie restarts Man of Steel and The Wolverine.
Tonight, I turn to films that are a bit harder to categorize. I begin with Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby, the fourth adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel that stars Leo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire. It opens this Friday and I’ve already written about it extensively in my box office prediction post from yesterday. You can find that here:
This brings me to what could be my most personally awaited release this season: Nicolas Winding Refn’s Only God Forgives, out July 19th. Refn is the director of Drive, one of my favorite pictures of the last decade. Forgives re-teams the director with star Ryan Gosling in a tale that involves Thai boxing and a twisted criminal family. I’m trying my best not to know too much about it before I see it because I want to experience it like I witnessed Drive. That basically means I didn’t know much and was pleasantly, very pleasantly, surprised. Refn has proven himself to be one of the most exciting directors working today and I’m hopeful Forgives delivers on his promise he showed two years ago. Simply put, the potential is there for this to be all kinds of awesome.
On May 31st comes Now You See Me, a caper flick from The Incredible Hulk director Louis Letterier. Starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, and Morgan Freeman, the plot involves magicians who get mixed up in heists. I gotta say, the trailers make Now seem like it could be fun, though I wonder whether this relatively small pic will break out in a season filled with would-be blockbusters.
One of the more curious titles to emerge this summer is Much Ado About Nothing (June 7). It is an ultra low-budget black&white adaptation of Shakespeare’s play that was shot in the director’s home in less than two weeks. The catch? That director is Joss Whedon, who also made something called The Avengers last summer. Whedon decided to go in a completely different direction here before he jumps on board with the breathlessly awaited Avengers sequel.
Sofia Coppola has proven herself to be a terrific director with such memorable pictures as The Virgin Suicides and Lost in Translation. On June 14th comes The Bling Ring, starring Emma Watson as a member of a group of thieves who prey on starlets like Lindsay Lohan. Bling is based on a true story and this one has real breakout potential, especially due to its ability to target the often-neglected female audience this season.
Inception and Dark Knight Rises star Joseph Gordon-Levitt makes his directorial debut with Don Jon, out in August. Gordon-Levitt plays a womanizer whose ways begin to change when he meets two women, played by Scarlett Johannson and Julianne Moore. He’s proved himself to be a fine actor over recent years and it will be interesting to see if Gordon-Levitt’s talents translate to behind the camera. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.
Finally, Amanda Seyfried stars in Lovelace, a biopic about Deep Throat porn star Linda Lovelace. This could be the type of role that garners Seyfried major critical attention, as long as its decent. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.
No porn star biopics in my next entry of the Summer Movie Preview as I’ll preview titles geared towards family audiences. Stay tuned!
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