Tag: Lee Byung-hun

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 11th Edition

There’s been a whole lotta precursor developments since my last Oscar predictions update on November 23rd. Critics groups are weighing in with their best-of choices, the review embargo for Marty Supreme lifted while the social embargo lapsed for the upcoming Avatar: Fire and Ash. Most importantly, the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe voters revealed their nominees along with the National Board of Review (NBR) and American Film Institute (AFI).

One thing seems certain in that One Battle After Another is the easy frontrunner for Best Picture. Is it a guaranteed victory? No, but it would have to encounter some bumps in the road for the narrative to change. That’s yet to happen.

At this juncture, I also think Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners are safe choices for BP inclusion. That leaves several pics vying for three slots. Will either of the big-budget sequels (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked: For Good) make it? Can Jay Kelly recover after a noticeable Globes omission or is Train Dreams the other Netflix nominee along with Frankenstein? Will The Secret Agent make it three international contenders in the ten? Or could No Other Choice make it four? Or do Bugonia (which has been doing well in precursors) or The Testament of Ann Lee (which has been struggling in precursors) make the cut?

My mid-December snapshot of prognostication answers those questions… for now. The Secret Agent and Bugonia are now in my top 10 with the mega-sequels Wicked and Avatar falling out. I, perhaps stubbornly, am sticking with Jay Kelly in the lineup. I came very close to replacing it with Train Dreams.

In Best Actress, Cynthia Erivo’s work in Wicked drops in favor of Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You). In Actor, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) rises with George Clooney as Jay Kelly falling out of the contending quintet (even with the latter’s movie clinging to a BP nom). In Supporting Actor, Benicio del Toro jumps from 6th to 2nd and over his Battle costar Sean Penn. I still have both getting in with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) now on the outside looking in. Director and Supporting Actress remain the same with some movement in the rankings.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-3)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out

Clint Bentley, Train Dreams

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hedda (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nuremberg (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sirât (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Belén (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Lost in Starlight

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Seeds (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Orwell 2 +2 = 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Deaf President Now!

Cutting Through Rocks

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rental Family

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Weapons (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 6) (-2)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Bugonia

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Warfare (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (E)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (-1)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

8 Nominations

Frankenstein

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nominations Reaction

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards were unveiled this morning with some surprises and other categories generally going as planned. As expected and as I projected, One Battle After Another (the unquestionable Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture) led the nominations count with 9 followed by Sentimental Value with 8, Sinners with 7, and Hamnet with 6. All of those pics have likely punched their Academy BP ticket.

While it was a good day for them, you can’t say the same for Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly, and some others. Overall I went 78 for 92 in my predictions (about par for the course). Let’s walk through each category with the nominees and how I did with some quick commentary.

Motion Picture – Drama

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six with an international flavor as three of the nominees are surefire hopefuls for Best International Feature at the Oscars (Accident, Agent, Value). The winner, however, should come down to Hamnet or Sinners.

Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another

How I Did: 3/6

First things first – Battle is likely going to emerge victorious. As far as the contenders, Jay Kelly missing was a legit shocker and the same could be said for Wicked: For Good. I had them in along with The Testament of Ann Lee instead of Choice and the one-two directorial combo of Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague from Richard Linklater.

Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

How I Did: 5/6

Mr. del Toro makes the sextet instead of Josh Safdie, whose Marty Supreme had a less than anticipated showing with 3 nods. Anderson is the favorite though I wouldn’t discount Coogler or Panahi.

Actress – Drama

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

How I Did: 5/6

Victor is in over my somewhat upset pick of Jodie Foster in A Private Life. This is one of the easiest to predict with Buckley.

Actor – Drama

Nominees: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Not as easy to predict as Actress (Drama) with the Oscar heavy hitters in Actor slotted in Musical or Comedy. This could be a close one between Jordan and Moura.

Actress – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

The expected six, but this is a tough one to call. Precursors may help with my eventual prediction though I’d say everyone but Hudson at least has a chance here. Byrne is perhaps the soft frontrunner.

Actor – Musical or Comedy

Nominees: Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

How I Did: 5/6

My alternate Byung-hun over Brendan Fraser (Rental Family). Like the Oscars, this could be a supreme battle between Chalamet and DiCaprio with Hawke as potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

How I Did: 5/6

Blunt is one of the genuine shockers as she’s in instead of Supreme‘s Gwyneth Paltrow. This is a tricky category to pinpoint and we’re going to need precursors to help sort it out.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

This seems like a race where Value could pick up a trophy with Skarsgård, but both Battle actors are viable.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners

How I Did: 6/6 (!)

Another competition where Value is possible though Battle and Sinners might have the edge in that order. I wouldn’t rule out Accident either.

Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Nominees: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice of Hind Rajab

How I Did: 5/6

Rajab gets the call over Sound of Falling as Value could have the best shot, but Accident is a real threat as is Agent.

Motion Picture – Animated

Nominees: Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 5/6

Demon Slayer instead of Ne Zha 2 (which I also incorrectly predicted for Critics Choice). The voters could go with phenom KPop though Rain and Zootopia are in the hunt.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2

How I Did: 7/8

This silly little three-year-old category is something the Globes should jettison. After all, Avatar hasn’t even opened and it’s being nominated for its box office achievement? Perhaps Sinners, a truly unanticipated smash hit, takes this. I had Superman up instead of Reckoning.

Original Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât

How I Did: 4/6

F1 (which also got a CCA mention) and Sirât contend over my picks of Bugonia and Marty Supreme. I think Sinners is out front with OBAA threatening.

Original Song

Nominees: “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

How I Did: 4/6

Well, at least Wicked got two songs nominated, eh? “No Place Like Home” and “Train Dreams” are balloted instead of “Drive” from F1 and “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners. “Golden” could be just that on Globes night.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, adds up to these movies generating numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Bugonia, KPop Demon Hunters, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, F1, Jay Kelly, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Train Dreams, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Sorry, Baby, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab

I”ll have predictions up for the show shortly before the January 11th telecast and keep an eye on the blog for updated Oscar projections!

83rd Golden Globe Awards Nomination Predictions

Nominations for the 83rd Golden Globe Awards are out Monday prior to the January 11th ceremony hosted by Nikki Glaser. The highest profile Oscar precursor divides its six nominees for Picture and the lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy designations. Between the 12 hopefuls for BP in those categories in 2024, it showcased 9 of the 10 eventual Academy BP contenders (the one exception being I’m Still Here). All five Best Actor Oscar nominees could be found among the six in the Drama race for the Globes (that will not be the case this year as heavyweights like Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are in Musical/Comedy). It was a different story for Best Actress as four of the eventual Oscar players were found in Musical/Comedy with Drama victor Fernanda Torres (from I’m Still Here) rounding out the Academy quintet. You could find the five Supporting Actor nominees at the 97th Academy Awards in the Globe six and four of the Oscar Supporting Actresses (the exception being Monica Barbaro in A Complete Unknown).

In other words, it is smart to include the vast majority of movies and actors that you believe will be honored by the Academy into your Globe forecast if the math works. Two observations – this is where it would be helpful for Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident to have a strong showing after a disappointing one at the Critics’ Choice Awards noms. I’m predicting that it will. This is also where Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery could rebound after being blanked by CCA. I’m predicting that it won’t.

Let’s walk through eace race with my picks and an alternate!

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – Train Dreams

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate – No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Alternate – Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Alternate – Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternate – Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alternate – Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Alternate – Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Alternate – Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Alternate – Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Film Screenplay

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Alternate – The Secret Agent

Best Non-English Language Film

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sirât

Sound of Falling

Alternate – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Ne Zha 2

Zootopia 2

Alternate – Scarlet

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Alternate – Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

“Drive” from F1

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good

Alternate – “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

KPop Demon Hunters

Sinners

Superman

Weapons

Wicked: For Good

Zootopia 2

Alternate – A Minecraft Movie

That works out to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value, Sinners

6 Nominations

Hamnet, Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Jay Kelly, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, The Testament of Ann Lee, Weapons, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

After the Hunt, A Private Life, Arco, Blue Moon, Die, My Love, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Ne Zha 2, No Other Choice, Rental Family, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Song Sung Blue, Sound of Falling, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Train Dreams

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.

The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.

Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.

So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.

From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.

George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.

Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.

Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.

Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.

Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.

Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.

Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.

Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.

So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 23rd Edition

We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.

We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.

In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.

As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?

You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Secret Agent

The Testament of Ann Lee

The Rivals of Amziah King

Blue Moon

Is This Thing On?

Anemone

The Voice of Hind Rajib

After the Hunt

Weapons

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib

Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Miles Caton, Sinners

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Sean Bean, Anemone

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

The Testament of Ann Lee

After the Hunt

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Highest 2 Lowest

Nouvelle Vague

The Smashing Machine

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Below the Clouds

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

F1

Bugonia

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Hedda

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD

2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Hamnet, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 13th Edition

My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.

Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.

That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).

As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):

Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.

The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).

Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.

Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.

Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.

Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).

Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.

Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.

You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)

24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Ballad of a Small Player

La Grazia

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Hikari, Rental Family

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)

15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)

12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)

14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)

15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

The Rivals of Amziah King

Anemone

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ballad of a Small Player

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Late Fame

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

La Grazia

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

Deaf President Now!

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Couture

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Christy

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

How to Train Your Dragon

That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Winner: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: No Other Choice

No Other Choice is the newest feature from acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook and it has premiered in Venice. With domestic distribution by Neon, the satirical thriller is expected to hit domestic screens later this year. It is based on a 1997 novel by Donald Westlake. The cast is led by Lee Byung-hun with supporting turns from Son Ye-jin, Park Hee-soon, Lee Sung-min, Yeom Hye-ran, and Cha Seung-won.

Chan-wook has made critical darlings including Oldboy, The Handmaiden, and Decision to Leave. Yet none of his efforts have been recognized by the Academy in the International Feature Film derby. 2022’s Leave was widely expected to do so and its snub was one of the biggest shockers on that nomination morning.

Choice certainly has the reviews to change that with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic. In a best case scenario, it could branch out from IFF and into Best Picture with Chan-wook in the directing quintet, Byung-hun in Actor, and an Adapted Screenplay mention. I think the most likely scenario is inclusion in IFF and the screenplay race. There’s also the possibility that the Academy ignores it like they did with Leave. However, one could argue that pic’s snub could help his latest. One thing to keep an eye is Neon’s bandwidth in their campaigns. In the international competition, they will also be juggling Sentimental Value (the frontrunner at this juncture), Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Acciddent, and the heralded The Secret Agent and Sirât (both Cannes favorites). I wouldn’t put it past Neon to successfully shine lights on all of them though it could be a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event Box Office Prediction

Netflix is taking the rare step next weekend of capitalizing on already existing content when they release KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event. Released on the streamer in June, the musical fantasy has become a family friendly phenomenon on the service. Hunters will get the “sing-along” treatment (something usually reserved for Disney) with a two night only event on Saturday, August 23rd and Sunday, August 24th.

Already Netflix’s most viewed animated offering ever, Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans direct. Voiceover work is provided by Arden Cho, Ahn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun. Angling for Oscar nominations in Animated Feature and Original Song (single “Golden” in particular), the question is how many kiddos will successfully drag their parents to material available in the living room and on the iPad.

I think this could reach $10M+ in its two days of release and my hunch is to go with an over performance in the low teens (even with the challenge of youngsters returning to school).

KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million

For my Honey Don’t! prediction, click here:

Honey Don’t! Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: KPop Demon Hunters

KPop Demon Hunters hit Netflix a couple weeks back and the animated feature’s title is accurate. The musical fantasy finds an all-girl group moonlighting as crime fighters. Maggie Kang and Chris Applehans direct with a voice cast including Arden Cho, Ayn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun.

Midway through 2025, we don’t have any slam dunks in the Animated Feature race. Pixar’s Elio is a box office disappointment with good but not great reviews. Potential heavy hitters like Zootopia 2 from the Mouse House and Little Amélie or The Character of Rain from GKIDS await.

However, Hunters has surprised with strong reviews and high viewing numbers on the streamer. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 97% with Metacritic at 77. That’s certainly solid enough for it to play in Animated Feature. It might come down to the campaign that Netflix mounts as their upcoming In Your Dreams will vie for the prize as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…