Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

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For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Saturday Night

Jason Reitman had a one-two punch of consecutive Best Picture nominees with Juno and Up in the Air in 2007 and 2009. Some follow-ups generated solid reviews (Young Adult, Tully) while others (Labor Day, The Front Runner) drew more mixed reactions. None have received significant awards buzz in the past decade and a half. Will that change with Saturday Night?

The Sony Pictures dramedy is slated for release on October 11th which is the 49th anniversary of the iconic sketch show it celebrates. This recounts the chaotic moments leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle (who essentially played young Steven Spielberg in 2022’s The Fabelmans) is 30-year-old Lorne Michaels. The extensive supporting cast (some playing 1975 legends with others as future legends) includes Cooper Hoffman, Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith, Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Andrew Barth Feldman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste.

Having just played Telluride and hitting Toronto shortly, early word-of-mouth is primarily on the fresh side. There are some high profile reviews of the thumbs down variety. I would say Saturday Night stands a shot at a Best Picture nomination, but it is a coin flip at the moment as we await how competitors pan out. Down ballot categories like Costume Design and (especially) Film Editing could occur especially if it sneaks into BP.

As for the cast, LaBelle is getting quality ink. Yet some of the strongest notices are going to Sennott as writer Rosie Schuster and Smith as Chevy Chase. I’m skeptical any of the performers break into their respective categories though the SAG Awards could certainly nominate the cast in their Ensemble race. Speaking of other shows, the Golden Globes could put it up for Musical/Comedy assuming Sony campaigns for it there and LaBelle could make the Actor (Musical/Comedy) quintet.

At the Academy Awards, there is almost always a picture or two that is up solely for its screenplay. This is a distinct possibility with Saturday Night and its original screenplay from Reitman and Gil Kenan. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Tyler Perry’s many cinematic undertakings get the spoof treatment with Not Another Church Movie on May 10th. Johnny Mack directs with Kevin Daniels as Taylor Pherry (in case there was any confusion) headlining. Jamie Foxx plays God with Mickey Rourke as the Devil. Other supporting players include Vivica A. Fox, Kyla Pratt, Lamorne Morris, Tisha Campbell, and Jasmine Guy.

I wonder if this parody might be arriving a little late as the Madea heyday was a few years back (though he’s still making them). This could still succeed in bringing in a decent sized African-American crowd. I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my estimate. Upper single digits would be an achievement. I’m not sure it gets that much, especially given the reported 1100 screen count.

Not Another Church Movie opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes prediction, click here:

Game Night Movie Review

Too many big studio comedies can be numbered by the handful of gags that work while the rest fall flat. This is thankfully not the case with Game Night. It’s gimmicky, sure. It’s a bit forgettable. Yet it’s consistently amusing and doesn’t overburden itself with too much sentimentality. As far as the genre goes as of late, that’s enough to mark this a success.

The pic comes from co-directors John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein, who last made the more consistently unfunny Vacation reboot. Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams are Max and Annie, married with no children even though she’s ready. Their biggest shared love is one of competitiveness, which includes their game nights with friends. Their usual group includes playboy Ryan (Billy Magnussen) and childhood sweethearts Kevin and Michelle (Lamorne Morris and Kylie Bunbury). Next door neighbor and police officer Gary (Jesse Plemons) is a former regular until his recent divorce has turned him into quite the weirdo.

Our main couple’s typical showing of charade and board gaming dominance is interrupted when Max’s brother Brooks (Kyle Chandler) pops up. Brooks is the ultra cool brother with a better bone structure and larger pocketbook that Max harbors jealousy for. Instead of Clue or Risk, Brooks has a different idea for game night involving a kidnapping and real actors interacting with the group. The players won’t know what’s real and what isn’t.

Wouldn’t you know it? Turns out some real kidnappers turn up and that Brooks may be involved in some seedy stuff. What follows is a search for a Faberge egg, guns that the principals think aren’t real (an overused gag by now), squeaky toys used to bite down on for pain (a never before seen gag that’s pretty darn funny), and Bateman’s patented ironic detachment that always seems to work.

Night is served with a game cast. Standouts include Plemons as the creepy but probably well-meaning neighbor and Magnussen as the dim bulb participant of the team. Sharon Horgan is his much smarter date for the evening and she provides some humorous moments as well. The screenplay also provides a twist or two that are genuinely surprising.

The actual concept of a game night may not be as joyous as it’s supposed to be on occasion. You need fun people there. This movie has them. Like real game nights, you may forget some of details by the next day but you’ll remember enjoying it.

*** (out of four)