Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.
Furthermore, both PatriotsDay and TheFounder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.
Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.
So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:
BESTPICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. LaLaLand (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Silence (PR: 5)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 9)
8. Arrival (PR: 7)
9. Jackie (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
11. HellorHighWater (PR: 11)
12. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 12)
13. PatriotsDay (PR: Not Ranked)
14. LivebyNight (PR: 13)
15. Sully (PR: 14)
16. HacksawRidge (PR: 15)
17. NocturnalAnimals (PR: 17)
18. TheJungleBook (PR: 16)
19. TheFounder (Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
Allied
FlorenceFosterJenkins
BESTDIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
10. Theodore Melfi, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Ryan Gosling, LaLaLand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Michael Keaton, TheFounder (PR: 7)
7. Viggo Mortensen, CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
8. Warren Beatty, RulesDon’tApply (PR: 6)
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)
BESTACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, LaLaLand (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jessica Chastain, MissSloane (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
7. Meryl Streep, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)
10. Taraji P. Henson, HiddenFigures (PR: 10)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
3. Michael Shannon, NocturnalAnimals (PR: 1)
4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)
5. Lucas Hedges, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jeff Bridges, HellorHighWater (PR: 10)
7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, FlorenceFosterJenkins (PR: 9)
10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
BESTSUPPORTINGACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Janelle Monae, HiddenFigures (PR: 8)
7. Octavia Spencer, HiddenFigures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, OtherPeople (PR: 6)
9. Helen Mirren, EyeintheSky (PR: 9)
10. Felicity Jones, AMonsterCalls (PR: 10)
BESTORIGINALSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 1)
2. ManchesterbytheSea (PR: 3)
3. LaLaLand (PR: 2)
4. HellorHighWater (PR: 5)
5. 20thCenturyWomen (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 4)
8. TheLobster (PR: 8)
9. CaptainFantastic (PR: 9)
10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
I, DanielBlake
BESTADAPTEDSCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Lion (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
5. Arrival (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities
6. HiddenFigures (PR: 6)
7. LivebyNight (PR: 7)
8. HacksawRidge (PR: 10)
9. Elle (PR: 7)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!
Another day, another piece of the Oscar puzzle coming into more focus as The Founder has screened for critics. The film is a biopic of Ray Croc, the man behind the McDonald’s franchise. Michael Keaton stars with John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directing. Costars include Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, Patrick Wilson, and John Carroll Lynch.
This has been fairly low on the radar screen of many awards prognosticators. Part of that could be due to its consistently shifting release date over the past few months. It was originally scheduled to debut this Friday and then was pushed up to August before being pushed back to December and its wide release won’t come until January. Got all that?
Nevertheless, The Founder found some positive critical reaction as of yesterday and it currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. Will it get a Best Picture nomination? Most likely not, but it could be a factor in one particular race. Michael Keaton has been on a roll lately (he’s appeared in the last two Best Picture winners – Birdman and Spotlight). The Best Actor race appears to be rather fluid, with only Denzel Washington (Fences) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) as seemingly sure things. Keaton could easily find himself in the mix with Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Tom Hanks (Sully), Warren Beatty (Rules Don’t Apply), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and others. It could also make a play for Best Original Screenplay, though that could be more of a long shot.
Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.
When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s LaLaLand (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s BillyLynn’sLongHalftimeWalk.
Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.
The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s BrokebackMountain and 2012’s LifeofPi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s SenseandSensibility and 2000’s CrouchingTiger, HiddenDragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.
And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.
The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.
Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.
One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.
Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.
On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.
Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.
A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.
And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Silence (PR: 3)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Arrival (PR: 9)
8. Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Loving (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Live by Night (PR: 15)
14. Sully (PR: 16)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)
18. Allied (PR: 20)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Best Director
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)
7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)
10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)
7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
Yet another piece of the Oscar puzzle revealed itself last night when MissSloane premiered at the AFI Film Festival. This comes from director John Madden (who helmed the 1998 Best Picture winner ShakespeareinLove) and focuses on the issues of gun control and Washington lobbyists.
Some of the early reviews have been positive but others have been mixed (it sits at 60% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes). This looked like a potential long shot contender for Picture and Director recognition and the buzz out of AFI suggests it won’t happen.
There’s a sterling supporting cast that includes Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Alison Pill, John Lithgow, Jake Lacy, and Sam Waterston. Don’t look for their names, however, to garner any Academy attention. And there’s Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who’s been singled out in some notices and could be a dark horse contender in Supporting Actress (though that probably won’t happen).
No, where MissSloane could factor into awards season is the way it’s always thought to have been and that’s with the lead performance from Jessica Chastain. She’s been nominated twice before – in Supporting for 2011’s TheHelp and lead in 2012’s ZeroDarkThirty. Initial reviews have praised her work and remarked that she carries the movie.
In a normal year, Chastain might be a shoo-in for a nomination. Not in 2016 and that’s because Actress is incredibly competitive this year. The trio of Annette Bening (20thCenturyWomen), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (LaLaLand) all look poised for nods. The final two slots look to be filled by a combo of any of the following: Chastain, Meryl Streep (FlorenceFosterJenkins), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Amy Adams (Arrival). Upset entries could include Isabelle Huppert (Elle) or Rebecca Hall (Christine). And we are still waiting on Taraji P. Henson (HiddenFigures) and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers).
See what I mean by competition? That said, Chastain (while no threat to win) solidified her name into this busy race with the Sloane screening.
Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.
And with that, the November 10th rankings!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. Sully (PR: 16)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)
20. Allied (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
Another key piece in the 2016 Oscar puzzle came into sharper focus this weekend as Fences had its first industry screening. Based on the acclaimed August Wilson play (he also penned the script) for which Denzel Washington and Viola Davis won Tony Awards, Mr. Washington directs and stars in the adaptation.
It’s not out until Christmas and reviews are embargoed for another few weeks, but initial reaction out yesterday indicates this will be a major player in the awards derby. This holds true especially for Denzel in the lead Actor race and Davis in Supporting Actress. For months, it was thought that Davis would compete in the lead Actress field. However, a couple weeks back, that designation was shifted. The reasoning could have to do with the significant competiveness of Actress where Annette Bening (20thCenturyWomen), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (LaLaLand) are assured nominees who should battle it out for the gold. Supporting Actress appears less packed and Davis looks to be the current front runner. Same goes for Denzel in the Actor race, which would give him his third golden statue.
The early buzz also bodes well for Fences getting Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay nods. Yet not everything is totally clear cut. There are three performances that could compete in Supporting Actor: Jovan Adepo, Stephen Henderson, and Mykelti Williamson (yes, Bubba from ForrestGump). In my weekly Oscar predictions posts, I’ve given Henderson the edge. Last night may have changed my thinking as both Williamson and Adepo have garnered seemingly greater chatter. There’s the possibility of two of these gentlemen getting in or just one or perhaps the trio canceling each other out (less likely).
One thing is for sure: Fences has been on the radar of Academy Awards predictors for quite some time and this weekend only increased the visibility.
Well – we’ve reached November, loyal blog readers and as I’ve mentioned before, I’m paring down the list of Oscar hopefuls in the eight major categories. Over the past two months, I’ve listed 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 for the Directing, Acting, and Screenplay races. Today, it gets whittled down to 20 in BP and 10 in the others. One development of note this week: it appears Dev Patel will be competing in Supporting Actor for Lion instead of Lead. That enters him in the derby for that race, which looks more unpredictable than any other at this moment.
There are still a number of Oscar hopefuls left to screen: Silence, Fences, Live by Night, Rules Don’t Apply, Passengers, The Founder, Hidden Figures, Miss Sloane, Gold among them. In other words, look for shifts in placement as these movies start receiving reviews and buzz in the near future.
Here’s how I have the respective competitions shaping up in this early November period:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
7. Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Loving (PR: 8)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Live by Night (PR: 15)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 24)
16. Sully (PR: 14)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 16)
19. Allied (PR: 20)
20. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
Nocturnal Animals, Miss Sloane, Passengers, Gold, 13th
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Longergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
5. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Mike Mills (20th Century Women), Ang Lee (Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Ben Affleck (Live by Night), Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 4)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 9)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
9. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 13)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Dev Patel (Lion – moved to Supporting), Michael Keaton (The Founder), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Will Smith (Collateral Beauty), Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 10)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (Denial), Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: Not Ranked; considered to be Lead)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 4)
9. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
10. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Sunny Pawar (Lion), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Timothy Spall (Denial), Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This), Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)
10. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Janelle Monae (Moonlight), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Moonlight (PR: 3)
2. La La Land (PR: 1)
3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
4. Loving (PR: 5)
5. Jackie (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
8. The Lobster (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Toni Erdmann, Allied, Rules Don’t Apply, Gold, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Arrival (PR: 4)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Love & Friendship (PR: 7)
10. Certain Women (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Sully, Elle, Indignation, The Jungle Book, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
And that shall do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Thursday has arrived and that means a fresh round of Oscar predictions in the 8 biggest categories! The major development this week? The announcement that Viola Davis will compete in Supporting Actress for Fences instead of lead. I’ve had Davis firmly at #3 for weeks on my Best Actress board, but this news puts her at #1 in the supporting race. I’m also growing more confident that both Moonlight (which had a scorching debut in limited release) and Loving will make it into Best Picture and they both rise up in this week’s rankings.
Please note – this will be the final week of predicting 25 Best Picture possibilities and 15 predictions in the other races. Starting next week as November arrives, it’ll be whittled down to 20 in Picture and 10 in the others.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 6)
5. Lion (PR: 4)
6. Jackie (PR: 5)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
8. Loving (PR: 10)
9. Arrival (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 9)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 18)
14. Sully (PR: 14)
15. Live by Night (PR: 13)
16. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 15)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 19)
18. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 17)
19. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 16)
20. Allied (PR: 21)
21. Miss Sloane (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Passengers (PR: 24)
23. Gold (PR: 22)
24. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 23)
25. 13th (PR: 20)
Dropped Out:
The Founder
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 8)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 13)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 10)
13. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 12)
15. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ana DuVernay, 13th
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 9)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 8)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 10)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 14)
13. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 12)
14. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 13)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 9)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
10. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 11)
12. Rachel Weisz, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
14. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 13)
15. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Viola Davis, Fences (competing in Supporting Actress)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
7. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 7)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 10)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: Not Ranked, listed in Lead Actress)
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
It’s Thursday, ladies and gents, and that means my weely Oscar predictions are in! There’s been some serious changes to the predictions, a new film that’s qualified itself for consideration, and some category shifting that’s occurred within the past week.
So – perhaps some explanation on where I see the state of the races in each of the eight major categories is required this week. My synopsis of said races are for your enjoyment below…
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Fences (PR: 3)
4. Lion (PR: 6)
5. Jackie (PR: 5)
6. Moonlight (PR: 7)
7. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
8. Arrival (PR: 9)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
Other Possibilities
10. Loving (PR: 10)
11. 20th Century Women (PR: 11)
12. Hell or High Water (PR: 14)
13. Live by Night (PR: 13)
14. Sully (PR: 15)
15. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)
17. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 18)
18. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
19. The Jungle Book (PR: 20)
20. 13th (PR: 16)
21. Allied (PR: 21)
22. Gold (PR: 22)
23. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Passengers (PR: 23)
25. The Founder (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
Miss Sloane
I, Daniel Blake
Where The Race Stands…
With La La Land as the current front runner and there’s no doubt about it. The conventional wisdom for the last several weeks is that there were three fall entries that could potentially give it a run for its money: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk. That dynamic shifted dramatically when Halftime opened to middling reviews when it screened at the New York Film Festival this weekend. The film has now dropped 11 spots and out of my predicted nominees and it’s unlikely to make its way back in. Silence and Fences now seem the only likely pictures to stand in the way of La La. Meanwhile, Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge makes a serious jump into the possibilities – from not ranked a week ago to #18. I’ve also found room for the Warren Beatty pic Rules Don’t Apply, which has yet to screen. Others on the list of possibilities that have yet to be reviewed (meaning they could jump up when they do or fall out completely): Hidden Figures (which I have in the ninth spot at the moment for a nod), Live by Night, Passengers, Allied, Gold, The Founder and others not currently in the top 25 such as Miss Sloane and Collateral Beauty.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
4. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
5. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 5)
Other Possibilties
6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 8)
8. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 9)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 10)
10. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
11. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
12. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: 11)
13. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 13)
15. Ana DuVernay, 13th (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Where the Race Stands…
With two-time Oscar winner Ang Lee falling 8 spots after the NYFF Halftime reaction. Chazelle remains at #1 as he’s been for weeks as we await Scorsese and Washington’s films. I’m growing more confident that Lonergan manages to squeeze into the top five.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 6)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked in Lead Actor)
9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 9)
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 10)
12. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 11)
13. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
14. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 15)
15. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Ben Affleck, Live by Night
Where the Race Stands…
Up in the air until we see Denzel’s work in Fences, which could potentially become the immediate front runner as I’m currently estimating. Casey Affleck is getting raves, too and has held steady at #2 for weeks. Andrew Garfield is on the outside looking in for now, but could get in for either Silence or Hacksaw Ridge. There’s also late breaking news that Taylor Hackford’s The Comedian was given a December release for Oscar consideration and perhaps that’ll bode well for its star, Robert De Niro (though I’m not prepared to include him in the mix quite yet). And there’s last week’s reveal that Warren Beatty will compete in this category instead of Supporting, as was previously thought.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 7)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 9)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
11. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
12. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: 14)
13. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 13)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 15)
Where the Race Stands…
As one of the most competitive Best Actress races in history. Both Stone and Portman are serious contenders for the win and we haven’t even seen heard the word on Davis’s work in Fences. They appear to be the trio that could win. In any other year, Bening’s acclaimed performance in Women might earn her some overdue recognition, but probably not this year. The fifth slot is much trickier and I almost picked Adams (for Arrival and not Nocturnal Animals) over Negga. Just to show you the competitiveness, Streep in most years would be a shoo-in for her 20th (!) nomination for Jenkins, but could be left out. Others to keep an eye on: Chastain and a dark horse nominee like Hall.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 3)
4. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 10)
7. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 9)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 11)
11. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 12)
12. Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 13)
14. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (moved to Lead Actor list)
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Timothy Spall, Denial
Where the Race Stands…
Absolutely and 100% percent wide open… so much so that I’m not confident any of my current picks make the final cut. Some would argue Grant is in, but I’m not totally convinced. Shannon is such a well-respected actor that he’s probably in, but reaction has been very mixed on Nocturnal Animals. Neeson and Henderson’s work has yet to be seen. Bottom line: this particular category could change a lot over the next few weeks.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 3)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 4)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities
6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)
7. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)
8. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)
10. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 6)
12. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Janelle Monae, Moonlight (PR: 13)
14. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 11)
15. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Sienna Miller, Live by Night
Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane
Where The Race Stands…
Seemingly with Williams and Harris as the two front runners and it’s been that way for a while after Manchester and Moonlight, respectively, hit the festival circuit. Perhaps one of the two actresses from the not yet screened Hidden Figures (Spencer and Monae, who also got positive notices for Moonlight) could make a play. Otherwise, this looks like a two-way competition at the moment.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Jackie (PR: 3)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilties
6. Loving (PR: 7)
7. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)
8. Toni Erdmann (PR: 9)
9. Miss Sloane (PR: 8)
10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 14)
11. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 11)
12. The Lobster (PR: 12)
13. Allied (PR: 10)
14. Gold (PR: 13)
15. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Captain Fantastic
Where the Race Stands…
As a race that La La Land may not automatically win over Manchester by the Sea. Jackie and Moonlight are also looking solid for nominations with a fifth slot that I keep changing up between 20th Century Women, Loving, and Hell or High Water.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Silence (PR: 2)
3. Lion (PR: 3)
4. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
5. Arrival (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
7. Love & Friendship (PR: 11)
8. Live by Night (PR: 8)
9. Elle (PR: 10)
10. Sully (PR: 9)
11. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
12. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
13. Indignation (PR: 12)
14. Certain Women (PR: 13)
15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denial
Where the Race Stands…
In a waiting pattern as Fences and Silence have yet to screen. They could both be heavy hitters. If they both falter, look to Lion.
And that does it for this week, folks! Until next time…
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