Tag: La La Land

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 3rd Edition

We are officially past the midway point of 2025 and that’s cause to expand my Oscar predictions to all feature length categories for the 98th Academy Awards!

I would agree with most prognosticators that there’s only one already released film that is guaranteed a slot among the BP nominees – Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. I would also say Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, which screened at Cannes and took the Grand Prix (second place), has punched its ticket. As for the Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident, I have it clinging to a BP nod.

Obviously many of the BP hopefuls will elevate or diminish their statuses when festival season kicks off in approximately two months via Toronto, Telluride, and Venice. There is one significant change in my BP selections. For several weeks, I’ve had Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos on the outside looking in. These are two of the higher profile features awaiting their unveiling. I doubt both miss the cut and I went back and forth on which one to include. I’ve gone with Bugonia and that puts Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The Bugonia bump also puts Jesse Plemons in my Best Actor quintet with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) dropping.

Today’s post gives my first ever preview of the Academy’s new race: Best Casting. As with some other categories, I have Sinners currently leading the way. In fact, my projections have the vampire saga racking up 14 nods. That would tie it with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land for the most mentions of any picture in Oscar history.

As in past years, I’m keeping my BP mentions at 25 possibilities with directing, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions at 15 hopefuls. For all others, I’m giving you 10 contenders. These numbers will dwindle as the categories take shape down the line.

Here’s my first look at all 21 feature length races!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (+1)

16. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+2)

17. F1 (PR: 24) (+7)

18. A House of Dynamite (PR: 21) (+3)

19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)

20. Rental Family (PR: 20) (E)

21. Die, My Love (PR: 17) (-4)

22. Ann Lee (PR: 23) (+1)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (-9)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 22) (+2)

25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (E)

10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)

13. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

America Ferrera, The Lost Bus

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Akira Emoto, Rental Family

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. After the Hunt

3. Jay Kelly

4. Sinners

5. Marty Supreme

Other Possibilities:

6. It Was Just an Accident

7. Sorry, Baby

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. The Secret Agent

10. Ann Lee

11. Rental Family

12. Ella McCay

13. Is This Thing On?

14. Nouvelle Vague

15. A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hamnet

2. Bugonia

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. One Battle After Another

5. No Other Choice

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein

7. Wicked: For Good

8. The Life of Chuck

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Train Dreams

11. Die, My Love

12. Late Fame

13. Highest 2 Lowest

14. Hedda

15. The Smashing Machine

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value

2. It Was Just an Accident

3. The Secret Agent

4. No Other Choice

5. The President’s Cake

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirát

7. Sound of Falling

8. Left-Handed Girl

9. Nouvelle Vague

10. The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2

2. Arco

3. Elio

4. Scarlet

5. In Your Dreams

Other Possibilities:

6. Animal Farm

7. A Magnificent Life

8. Little Amélie or The Character of Rain

9. KPop Demon Hunters

10. Ne Zha 2

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Seeds

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

4. Cutting Through Rocks

5. Deaf President Now!

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

9. The Six Billion Dollar Man

10. The Librarians

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. After the Hunt

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Sentimental Value

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly

7. Marty Supreme

8. The Rivals of Amziah King

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Frankenstein

3. Bugonia

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Rivals of Amziah King

Other Possibilities:

6. F1

7. Sentimental Value

8. Nouvelle Vague

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman

5. Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Lee

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

8. Mother Mary

9. Snow White

10. One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. Sentimental Value

4. Bugonia

5. F1

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt

7. Wicked: For Good

8. One Battle After Another

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later

7. Bugonia

8. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Wolf Man

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners

2. Bugonia

3. After the Hunt

4. Frankenstein

5. Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another

7. F1

8. Sentimental Value

9. The Rivals of Amziah King

10. Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. TBD from Zootopia 2

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

8. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White

9. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

10. TBD from Mother Mary

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good

2. Frankenstein

3. Sinners

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia

7. One Battle After Another

8. Marty Supreme

9. The Phoenician Scheme

10. Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Warfare

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. Frankenstein

10. Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Superman

4. Frankenstein

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

7. F1

8. How to Train Your Dragon

9. Tron: Ares

10. Sinners

Here’s my initial take on how many nominations the various pictures will receive:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

After the Hunt

7 Nominations

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

6 Nominatons

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominatons

F1, No Other Choice, The Rivals of Amziah King, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Deaf President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Die, My Love, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Warfare

Oscar Predictions: Sinners (Take II)

On rare occasions, the need arises to update my Oscar prognosis on a particular picture if warranted. When I penned my post for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners on April 13th, I didn’t discount its awards potential. I wrote of its solid chances in down-the-line competitions including Ludwig Goransson’s lauded score and the sound and production design.

However, I also wrote this:

So could Sinners score above-the-line mentions? I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t predict it at the moment. Best Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay could materialize depending on how competition shakes out in the months ahead.

I don’t need to wait until the months ahead to revise my remarks. Sinners has taken the box office by storm in addition to its critical acclaim. When my initial write-up was published nearly three weeks ago, the vampire drama stood at 100% on RT. It barely lost any steam with 98% at press time, a 97% audience score and 84 on Metacritic.

On the financial front, Coogler’s latest has taken in $123 million domestically after less than two weeks and it should reach $250 million or higher. Sinners has become part of the cultural zeitgeist and that’s a recipe for a strong showing this awards season.

So what’s the best case scenario for this? The ceiling has undeniably gotten higher. I now believe that Sinners will be nominated for Best Picture with Director and Original Screenplay as major possibilities. In addition to the aforementioned Score, Production Design, and Sound, there are other below the line categories where it could pop up. That includes the new Casting race, Original Song (where the track “I Lied to You” from cast member Miles Caton might stand the best shot), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. Regarding that new casting competition, I’m confident this will be in a sturdy position to vie for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards next year.

I didn’t discuss the actors involved in mid-April because I wasn’t seriously considering their inclusion. That has changed. Michael B. Jordan could factor into the Best Actor race. In Supporting Actress, it could be Hailee Steinfeld or Wunmi Mosaku (with the former probably having an edge to nab her second nod after 2010’s True Grit). For Supporting Actor, there’s Delroy Lindo, Caton, or Jack O’Connell. Some of this may come down to who Warner Bros mounts campaigns for. The narrative for Lindo might be tempting. Five years ago, he probably narrowly missed the cut for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. He’s a well-respected veteran actor who’s never been nominated and the Academy could look to rectify that.

Back to that best case scenario. If all went perfectly, that would be 16 nominations and the record stands at 14 (shared by Titanic, All About Eve, and La La Land). Do I think that’ll happen? No. Would 12 or 13 nods surprise me? No.

Some prognosticators may think it’s too early to think anything has secured one of the ten BP slots. And there’s always the matter of a horror movie making the cut. Yet Get Out and The Substance brought the genre into the big dance in the past decade. As for the timeline, it was rather clear that Dune: Part Two was going to be a Warner Bros hopeful at this juncture in 2024 and that turned out to be accurate. Another counterargument is that WB will focus on Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Time will tell on that one, but there’s no reason the studio can’t have two contenders and I’m skeptical (based on the trailer) that Battle is a surefire play over Sinners.

Three weeks ago I wasn’t predicting Sinners for BP and beyond “at the moment”. That moment arrived quickly for me to reconsider. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Moana 2

Moana 2, out this Thanksgiving weekend, was originally conceived as a Disney+ limited series before morphing into a proper sequel with a theatrical release. Now it’s widely expected to set the all-time record Turkey Day frame opening. David Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller direct with Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Rachel House, and Alan Tudyk returning for voiceover work. Khaleesi Lambert-Tsuda, Rose Matafeo, and David Fane are among new cast lending behind the mic talents.

In 2016, Moana set the Friday to Sunday premiere record over Thanksgiving which still stands today… for the moment. The animated adventure also picked up two Oscar nominations in Animated Feature (where it lost to fellow Disney blockbuster Zootopia) and the Original Song “How Far I’ll Go”. That track came up short to “City of Stars” from La La Land.

The Mouse Factory waited until the last minute to lift the review embargo off of the sequel. It has a so-so 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (its predecessor has 95%) and 57 on Metacritic (Moana landed 81). That reaction likely won’t nab it one of the five slots in Animated Feature (though Disney should score a spot with Inside Out 2). As for songs, Lin-Manuel Miranda was involved in the tunes eight years ago. Without his involvement, don’t expect Moana 2‘s ditties to resonate with Academy voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Life of Chuck

Silver Linings Playbook. 12 Years a Slave. The Imitation Game. Room. La La Land. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Green Book. Jojo Rabbit. Nomadland. Belfast. The Fabelmans. American Fiction. What do those films have in common? They are the last 12 recipients of the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award. Another commonality? Every one of them was nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards. Three (Slave, Green Book, Nomadland) won the top prize.

The surprise victor of People’s Choice at TIFF this morning is Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. Based on a novella by Stephen King, it finds the writer/director once again adapting the legendary author as he’s previously done with Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. Chuck is said to be more of crowdpleaser sci-fi drama. Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay lead the ensemble.

Chuck managed to outpace runners-up Anora and Emilia Pérez (both expected BP hopefuls) in Toronto. With the stats given above, Chuck has immediately entered the awards chat. That said, there are issues to consider before placing it in your BP ten.

First and foremost, Chuck has yet to acquire a stateside distributor. That will surely occur quickly. Yet we don’t know at press time whether it will release in 2024. If it does, it’s hard to argue with the power of TIFF’s biggest trophy. In 2023, American Fiction essentially became a contender in Canada and went onto 5 Academy nods with an Adapted Screenplay victory.

With 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic, Flanagan’s flick is generating nice notices. Frankly, though, I wasn’t really considering it a true contender until this TIFF announcement.

So what are Chuck‘s prospects now? In addition to Picture, Director and especially Adapted Screenplay are in the mix. If there’s an acting play, it might be Luke Skywalker himself Mark Hamill in supporting. If it continues to gain momentum, Editing, Original Score, and Visual Effects might be down ballot categories to keep an eye on. Toronto has potentially brought good luck to Chuck. It hasn’t been mentioned in my forecasts before. This will change at the next update later this week. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Toronto Gives Awards Life to Chuck

The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.

In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.

All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.

First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.

Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.

Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.

Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.

Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

Oscar Predictions: Maria

Pablo Larraín’s latest biopic about an iconic woman facing tragic circumstances has hit the Venice circuit with Telluride to follow this weekend. Maria casts Angelina Jolie as renowned opera singer Maria Callas. Set during her final days, it completes a thematic trilogy from Larraín preceded by 2016’s Jackie and 2021’s Spencer. Costars include Valeria Golino, Haluk Bilginer, and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Netflix picked up distribution rights on the eve of its premiere and it is expected to stream by year’s end.

It’s been some time since Jolie had a role expected to garner awards attention. 25 years ago, she won Best Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted. Her other nomination, in lead Actress, came for 2008’s Changeling. Her director for Maria has an impressive track record with leading performer nominations. Natalie Portman’s work as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis in Jackie made the final five eight years ago and she ultimately fell short to Emma Stone (La La Land). As Princess Diana in Spencer, Kristen Stewart was up in Actress with Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) taking gold. Stewart’s nod marked Spencer‘s only nomination while Jackie contended in Costume Design and Original Score. Note that neither received noms in Picture, Director, or for their screenplays.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy indicates that Maria might be the weakest of the three films (the RT score is currently 72%). Jolie is mostly receiving kudos and Netflix is likely to mount a serious campaign. Down the line tech mentions for Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Cinematography are feasible. However, I do wonder if the somewhat lackluster write-ups could mean Jolie is the only possibility. I’ve had Golino listed toward the bottom of other possibilities in Supporting Actress, but her role is apparently just one scene. You can expect to see her drop out in my next predictions post.

I’ve had Jolie parked in second place (behind Amy Adams in Nightbitch) for weeks in Actress. She still may be in the top 5 when I update on Monday and I suspect she will. Will she stay in second place? I’m more unsure of that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Deadpool & Wolverine

The super matchup of Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman as their most iconic characters hits theaters on Friday with Deadpool & Wolverine. The third pic in the Deadpool series also marks Jackman’s 10th go-round as the clawed mutant. Shawn Levy directs with Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, and Karan Soni among the supporting players.

Reviews for the Deadpool trilogy have some consistency. The 2016 original has an 85% RT score while the 2018 sequel sports 84%. With the embargo up today, D & W sits at 79%. 2017’s Logan, Jackman’s previous appearance in the role, was more acclaimed at 93% and it landed an Adapted Screenplay nomination from the Academy.

The Deadpool movies have garnered zero Oscar nods. Part one was up at Golden Globes for Best Musical/Comedy and Reynolds for Actor in a Musical/Comedy (losing to La La Land and its lead Ryan Gosling, respectively). Part two was blanked by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. I wouldn’t anticipate part three getting noticed by the Academy or the HFPA. While several MCU titles have managed Visual Effects mentions, Mr. Pool has not and I do not believe it’ll start here. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards Predictions: July 4th Edition

Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.

That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.

The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.

Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.

Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.

Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.

You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)

10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)

12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)

13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)

14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)

16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)

17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)

19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)

20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)

21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)

22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)

23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)

24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Hit Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)

9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)

11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)

14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)

15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The End

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)

7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)

2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)

10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress

Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)

11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)

14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michael Shannon, The End

Barry Keoghan, Bird

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)

5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)

9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

8. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Inside Out 2 (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Collaboration (PR: 11) (-2)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Here (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Actor

96th Academy Awards FINAL Winner Predictions

After scores of Oscar Prediction posts, 35 Case Of write-ups making the argument for and against winners in BP, Director, and the four acting derbies, and numerous articles covering the key precursors – we have arrived at my final winner predictions for the 96th Academy Awards. The ceremony airs Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting (remember: it starts an hour earlier than normal at 7PM EST).

Truth be told, some of the major races come with little to zero suspense and you’ll read about that below. On the other hand, there are a handful of competitions that are quite unpredictable with the most visible being Best Actress.

As I do each year, I’ll give you the nominees, brief analysis, and a winner and runner-up pick for all the feature-length categories. Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Let’s keep this simple. Oppenheimer is the easiest BP selection to predict in quite some time and there’s been some obvious ones recently (including Everything Everywhere All at Once last year). It has taken all the precursors it needs to including the Globes, BAFTA, SAG and Critics Choice. Frankly, the more difficult call is runner-up (and it doesn’t really matter). I’ll go with Poor Things since it had the second most noms and showed up in all the major races where it was expected to contend.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

You could literally copy and paste everything about Picture for Director with the man who made Oppenheimer and throw in the fact that he took DGA as well. Another no brainer.

Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (I guess)

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

And now it gets complicated. Of the four acting races, this is by far the hardest one. Why? It appears to be a coin flip between Stone and Gladstone. They split the Golden Globes as anticipated. Stone received BAFTA and Critics Choice and appeared to be out front. And then Gladstone swooped in for SAG. That recency factor could serve as a boost. Additionally, Gladstone’s victory would be historic. For Stone, it would be her second statue in seven years after her La La Land prize. Stone could absolutely make the podium trip and it wouldn’t be unexpected at all. Yet for the reasons above…

Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Poor Things

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Actor also looked like a pick ’em for a bit between Murphy and Giamatti. They split the Globes and then Giamatti was your Critics Choice choice. Murphy, however, regained momentum with BAFTA and SAG. A Giamatti win could occur, but it seems unlikelier now.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

There was some thought that this race could become interesting at some point with an Emily Blunt upset at SAG or maybe even Brooks scoring a shocking victory. It never happened and Randolph has emerged everywhere. This is one of the easiest categories to call.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

This quintet of performers all come from BP nominees, but the winner will be from the BP recipient. Downey Jr. has swept this season thus far and that’ll continue.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

You’ll notice a common theme with both Screenplay derbies. It looked like each would difficult to figure out, but precursors have had consistency. In Original, that’s been Anatomy of a Fall and this should mark its sole Oscar since France inexplicably didn’t make it their International Feature Film submission.

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

There is a little more intrigue here with Barbie in the mix and a potential Oppenheimer juggernaut being rewarded even here. That said, Fiction kept racking up precursors and I can’t bet against it for its solo prize.

Prediction: American Fiction

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

As mentioned, with Anatomy left out, this becomes easy. Zone is the only BP nominee listed in this group.

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Runner-Up: Society of the Snow

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

We’ve got real drama here as Heron took the Globe and BAFTA while Spidey is the Annie and Critics Choice selection. I’m leaning toward the latter, but Heron could fly away with the minor upset.

Prediction: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

Doc Feature can be a head scratcher from time to time and I’m tempted to go with Daughters or even something else to shake it up. Mariupol, though, has collected the bulk of notable precursors. It’s the safe pick.

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Four Daughters

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Sometimes brevity is appreciated. There are some of these tech races where Oppenheimer is way out front. This would be one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Here’s one where Oppenheimer isn’t really expected to win. Instead, like Production Design, this should be between Barbie and Poor Things and it’s 50/50 in my view. I have a strange feeling that Barbie will win more than 1 Oscar (there’s one coming below where it’s basically a slam dunk). This could mark that second trophy.

Prediction: Barbie

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

A very easy call for Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Anatomy of a Fall

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

Poor Things is a genuine threat, but I’ll say this is Maestro‘s only victory.

Prediction: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

It is Oppenheimer‘s destiny to take this one.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot; “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie; “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony; “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon; “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Here’s where Barbie is the safe pick with either tune. “Ken” nabbed a Critics Choice prize, but Billie Eilish’s ballad scored at the Globes and Grammys.

Prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

Runner-Up: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Per Costume Design, a showdown between Barbie and Bella of Poor Things. Unlike Costume Design, my coin is flipped to Poor Things for what I’m projecting is its only Academy Award.

Prediction: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

BEST SOUND

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

This looked like a no thinking pick for Oppenheimer until Zone managed the BAFTA. I could see that repeating, but I’m not confident enough to bet against Oppenheimer.

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interst

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

Along with Actress, this is where I’ve struggled the most. VE is kinda wild this year with Oppenheimer not listed (it won Critics Choice), Dune: Part Two having been pushed to 2024, and Poor Things (which won BAFTA) not in the quintet. So… your guess is as good as mine. I’m really tempted to go with Godzilla. Guardians and Napoleon are possible (I really don’t see Mission as the pick). Yet I’ll say The Creator edges them out as it just took some Visual Effects Society awards. Confidence level? Nada.

Prediction: The Creator

Runner-Up: Godzilla Minus One

That means I’m speculating that every BP nominee except Past Lives will win an Oscar… and that Barbie is the only other picture with more than one trophy other than Oppenheimer.

Here’s the projected breakdown for victories:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

2 Wins

Barbie

1 Win

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Creator, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Poor Things, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, 20 Days in Mariupol, The Zone of Interest

And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with how I did and general takeaways…