Josh O’Connor is already an Emmy winner as a young Prince Charles from Netflix’s The Crown. He’s recently had acclaimed roles in La Chimera and Challengers and probably isn’t far away from his first silver screen awards bait role. Could that be Rebuilding?
Max Walker-Silverman’s drama casts O’Connor as a rancher displaced by wildfires. Costars include Meghann Fahy, Kali Reis, Lily LaTorre, and Amy Madigan. Reviews out of Sundance screenings are positive at 94% on RT and 76 on Metacritic. Some notices are strong enough that I wonder whether this could be an awards player with the right campaign. The timely nature of the subject matter should additionally be taken into consideration.
That chatter could extend to O’Connor and the lauded cinematography (a similar combo to Train Dreams which was also unveiled in Park City). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nominations for the 78th BAFTA Awards, airing February 16th, were unveiled today and we have another key Oscar precursor to pontificate about. I went 91 for 123 with Conclave (as I forecasted) leading all pictures in contention. It even managed to get 12 nods and that’s ahead of my call of 11. Let’s walk through each race with how I did and some general commentary.
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 4/5
I predicted The Substance over Unknown, which continues its highly impressive precursor run. This should come down to The Brutalist vs. Conclave unless the Brits really fall for Anora or Pérez.
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, Love Lies Bleeding, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
How I Did: 9/10
I thought Civil War would make the cut instead of Love Lies Bleeding. As the only Best Film contender in this bunch, Conclave has an obvious edge.
Outstanding Debut By a British Writer, Director or Producer
Oof. I went with Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, and The Taste of Mango over Hoard, my alternate Monkey Man, and Sister Midnight. This is a pretty easy pick with Kneecap out front.
Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Kensuke’s Kingdom, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
I went with Young Woman and the Sea over Kingdom. This new category could go to Robot, but watch out for Flow or even Wallace.
Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 4/5
I called a bit of an upset with La Chimera popping up in this quintet instead of Fig. The safe money is on Pérez for the victory.
Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
No Other Land has dominated early critics groups and is the favorite.
Animated Film
Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/4
Like Children’s and Family Film, this could be a three-way battle between Flow, Wallace, and Robot. I predicted Memoir of a Snail instead of Inside Out 2.
Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 5/6
I feel like Villeneuve needed this to say viable in the Oscar convo and he gets in over my pick of Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light. Even if it doesn’t win Best Film, Corbet is likely in the lead. Yet I wouldn’t discount Berger with the nomination leading Conclave.
Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This is where Anora could get a prize.
Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
How I Did: 4/5
Sing Sing joins the party over Wicked. This should be a Conclave win.
Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)
How I Did: 5/6
I wouldn’t ignore the possibility of a surprise with Jean-Baptiste, but should be between Madison and Moore. Ronan finally gets some precursor attention over my pick of Kate Winslet in Lee.
Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
Mr. Grant makes the sextet over the rather unexpected omission of Daniel Craig in Queer. Expect either Brody or Chalamet for the gold.
Supporting Actress
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 4/6
Saldaña is the frontrunner. Curtis (fresh off her SAG nod) and Gomez compete instead of Michele Austin (Hard Truths) and Margaret Qualley (The Substance). Except for Grande and Saldaña, the battle for the three slots in this race at the Oscars is fascinating with several performers in contention.
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 5/6
I thought maybe Denzel Washington would get his (somehow) first BAFTA nomination for Gladiator II. It didn’t happen and went to Clarence Maclin instead. Culkin is the frontrunner with Pearce as a potential spoiler.
Casting
Anora, The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Kneecap
How I Did: 2/5
This unpredictable race proved to be just that. I went with Blitz, Emilia Pérez, and Wicked and not The Apprentice, A Complete Unknown, and Kneecap. The winner? Your guess is as good as mine. Let’s say Anora for now.
Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu
How I Did: 4/5
Perez over Anora with The Brutalist or perhaps Conclave out front.
Costume Design
Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Ouch. I said Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, and Gladiator II and not Blitz, A Complete Unknown or Conclave. This should be Wicked.
Editing
Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Kneecap
How I Did: 3/5
Predicted Challengers (which was blanked) and The Substance over Dune and Kneecap. Conclave could take this.
Make-Up and Hair
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Pérez over Beetlejuice as The Substance seeks the victory.
Original Score
The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 3/5
Nosferatu and Robot over Blitz and The Substance. Like Best Film, this might be between The Brutalist and Conclave.
Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
The Brutalist over Gladiator II (which had a poor showing today). This could be Wicked.
Sound
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 2/5
Some real surprises here as Civil War, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez are out with Blitz, Gladiator II, and Wicked in. This should be Dune.
Special Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
How I Did: 4/5
Wicked instead of Alien: Romulus as Dune should get this (though Better Man has slight upset potential).
And there you have it! Keep an eye on the blog as we get closer to final Oscar predictions coming Sunday…
The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent of the Academy Awards, unveil their nominees this Wednesday, January 15th. This comes after they revealed their long lists for contenders in their various races a little over a week ago.
Here are my picks for the nominees across the competitions with an alternate picked in each. I’ll have a recap with how I did and general thoughts mid-week!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – A Complete Unknown
Outstanding British Film
Bird, Blitz, Civil War, Conclave, Gladiator II, Hard Truths, Kneecap, Lee, The Outrun, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Alternate – Wicked Little Letters
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Bring Them Down, Grand Theft Hamlet, Kneecap, Santosh, The Taste of Mango
Alternate – Monkey Man
Best Children’s and Family Film
Flow, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Alternate – Piece by Piece
Best Film Not in the English Language
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, La Chimera
Alternate – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Best Documentary
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, No Other Land, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, Will & Harper
Alternate – Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Alternate – Inside Out 2
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Alternate – Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Kneecap, A Real Pain, The Substance
Alternate – All We Imagine as Light
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Wicked
Alternate – Sing Sing
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Kate Winslet (Lee)
Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Alternate – Hugh Grant (Heretic)
Best Supporting Actress
Michele Austin (Hard Truths), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Alternate – Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Alternate – Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Best Casting
Anora, Blitz, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – Kneecap
Best Cinematography
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – Blitz
Best Editing
Anora, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Alternate – Emilia Pérez
Best Original Score
Blitz, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Substance
Alternate – Wicked
Best Production Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Alternate – The Brutalist
Best Special Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate – Wicked
Best Sound
Civil War, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
Alternate – The Substance
That works out to these pictures landing these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Conclave
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Anora, The Brutalist, The Substance, Wicked
6 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
5 Nominations
Gladiator II
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Kneecap, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Blitz, Hard Truths, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Civil War, Flow, Lee, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Bird, Black Box Diaries, Bring Them Down, Challengers, Daughters, Grand Theft Hamlet, I’m Still Here, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, La Chimera, Memoir of a Snail, Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Outrun, Queer, Santosh, Sing Sing, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, The Taste of Mango, Will & Harper, Young Woman and the Sea
After playing the festival circuit beginning in Cannes nearly a year ago and releasing overseas in autumn 2023, Alice Rohrwacher’s 1980s set romantic dramady La chimera is at last out in limited fashion domestically. Josh O’Connor (soon to be seen in the buzzy Challengers), Carol Duarte, Vincenzo Nemolato, Alba Rohrwacher (younger sibling of the director), and Isabella Rossellini star.
While chimera received a fine response in France and beyond (the RT score is 91%), the Italians chose Io capitano as their submission for International Feature Film at last year’s Oscars. Their choice paid off as it was one of the five nominated pics. Perhaps chimera would’ve made the cut though we’ll never know. Despite its Neon stateside distribution in 2024, this was eligible for the 96th Academy Awards so contention is moot for the 97th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
To say that September has given us plenty to think about when it comes to Oscar speculation is a massive understatement. Of course, it’s always been this way with the many titles premiering at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals. Those fests cause the stock of certain pictures and performers to rise and fall.
In the past week alone, there’s been lots of big news. It was announced that Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) will vie for lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress (where she was seen as a strong favorite to win).
Then the nation of France shocked us by announcing that they’re selecting The Taste of Things to compete in International Feature Film instead of Anatomy of a Fall, which was also looked at as a frontrunner.
Finally, it was confirmed that Bob Marley: One Love will not be receiving a limited December release. Instead it’ll drop in February 2024 so we can officially write off Kingsley Ben-Adir’s chances for this year.
For now, I’m still predicting that Anatomy will materialize in the Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay races. I am dropping its director Justine Triet from my projected five.
As for the Gladstone news, I’m slotting her right behind Emma Stone (Poor Things) in the lead derby. Gladstone’s disappearance in Supporting Actress causes Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) to become #1 (I’d had Gladstone in first for months prior to the surprising announcement). Viola Davis (Air) is back in my five due to the developments.
Readers of the blog know that over the past few days, I did individual posts updating Picture, Director, and the four acting races. I also whittled BP down from 25 to 15 possibilities and the others from 15 to 10.
With Barbie‘s announced move to Original Screenplay, it moves to #1 over Past Lives. In Adapted, festival love propels Poor Things to the top spot over Killers of the Flower Moon.
A noteworthy Actress alteration besides Gladstone joining the quintet is Barbie herself (Margot Robbie) making the cut. Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) are now on the outside looking in.
Here’s where I have it shaking out in my first full predictions in nearly a month!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-3)
10. American Fiction (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (E)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. Origin (PR: 13) (E)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (E)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting Actress
3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, One Life
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon – moved to Best Actress
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)
7. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
2. Past Lives (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Air (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 3) (-3)
7. May December (PR: 7) (E)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saltburn (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Fair Play (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rustin
Napoleon
The Boy and the Heron
The Book of Clarence
The Iron Claw
A Thousand and One
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predited Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. American Fiction (PR: Not Ranked)
5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Origin (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barbie – moved to Original Screenplay
One Life
BlackBerry
Next Goal Wins
The Nickel Boys
Dumb Money
The Killer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Taste of Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Perfect Days (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Fallen Leaves (PR: 6) (+2)
5. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Teachers’ Lounge (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Society of the Snow (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Delinquents (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Promised Land (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Il capitano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anatomy of a Fall
Monster
The Boy and the Heron
La Chimera
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Killer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
One Life
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (E)
8. “High Life” from Flora and Son (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10 (+1)
10. “Dance The Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Steal the Show” from Elemental
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Ferrari (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Napoleon (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 7) (E)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Creator
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Creator (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebel Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
The Little Mermaid
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Poor Things
10 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple
6 Nominations
Maestro
4 Nominations
The Holdovers
3 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall
2 Nominations
Air, American Fiction, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Wish, The Zone of Interest
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Orlando, My Political Biography, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rebel Moon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, 20 Days in Mariupol
You could correctly call this Oscar Predictions post the calm before the festival storm as Venice kicks off this week with Telluride and Toronto right behind it. Yet a major development occurred last week as the sands of time are moving slower for Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two. The epic sequel was pushed back to the spring of 2024.
How big of an impact does that make for my forecasts? A heavy one as I had it achieving 11 nominations. In my previous projections on August 16th, that was second only to Oppenheimer‘s 12. I had it ranked 1st in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects, 2nd in Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound, 3rd in Picture and Director, and 4th for Adapted Screenplay.
In fact, a victory for Dune in Visual Effects was probably the easiest race to call this early (its predecessor won too). Now it makes the VE contest quite interesting. Oppenheimer could take the prize and mark Christopher Nolan’s second win in a row in the category after 2020’s Tenet. It opens the door wider for The Creator from Gareth Edwards. And there’s now more of a shot for the MCU to nab its first statue in VE for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in particular.
I plan to do my next update on Labor Day (September 4th). By that time, we will have reviews and buzz from Venice premieres including Ferrari, Maestro, Poor Things, Priscilla, and The Killer. We’ll also have the word out for whatever pics debut at Telluride (to be announced Thursday).
Right after that update on the 4th, the rest of the Venice titles and a slew of Toronto movies will be unveiled. They include The Holdovers, Rustin, Dumb Money, Next Goal Wins, Society of the Snow, Origin, Pain Hustlers,Nyad, Lee, American Fiction, The Burial, and Hit Man.
In other words… it’s about to get really interesting, folks! I’m also dropping some titles that I’m just not sure are actually releasing in 2023 like The Piano Lesson. Obviously, it will re-enter the dance if there’s confirmation on a release this year. Questions persist about other ones. Is Long Day’s Journey Into Night happening before December 31st? Is Shirley or Freud’s Last Session? Will other currently scheduled releases pull a Dune? The answer is likely affirmative.
With the Dune shift, Air moves back into my BP 10 and Bradley Cooper (Maestro) is in Director over Denis Villeneuve. In non-Dune related shifts, Sandra Huller is now #1 in Actress over The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino. Charles Melton from May December hits my Supporting Actor five over Willem Dafoe (Poor Things).
You can read all the movement below and my next update with the Venice buzz arrives in a week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Maestro (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Air (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Napoleon (PR: 14) (E)
15. Ferrari (PR: 16) (+1)
16. The Killer (PR: 17) (+1)
17. May December (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (E)
19. One Life (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Rustin (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 22) (E)
23. Dumb Money (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 3) (E)
4. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 10) (E)
11. Caille Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (E)
12. Aunjanue Ellis, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (E)
12. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 12) (-1)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (E)
11. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: 11) (E)
12. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Niecy Nash-Betts, Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Saltburn (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. May December (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+2)
8. One Life (PR: 9) (+1)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Origin (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (E)
13. Dumb Money (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Killer (PR: 15) (+1)
15. All of Us Strangers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Taste of Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Monster (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Fallen Leaves (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
9. La Chimera (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Society of the Snow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
El Conde
The Delinquents
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: 9) (E)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. Every Body (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 6) (E)
7. Orlando, A Political Biography (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wild Life (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Deepest Breath (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Black Ice
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Poor Things (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Napoleon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Chevalier (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (E)
8. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Priscilla (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Air (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Killer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ferrari (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Poor Things (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Golda (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Color Purple (PR: Not Ranked
10. Beau is Afraid (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Wonka
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elemental (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Killer (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Past Lives (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saltburn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Napoleon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Killer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Barbie
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Creator (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rebel Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wonka (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Little Mermaid (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two
Killers of the Flower Moon
Blue Beetle
That means I’m predicting the following numbers of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
8 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
Napoleon
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Rustin, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, The Killer, May December,Monster, Nimona, Rebel Moon, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s looking like Netflix is going all in on Bradley Cooper’s Maestro being their main contender for awards love in 2023. With its first trailer out this week, the biopic is the biggest riser in Best Picture. Additionally, Carey Mulligan joins the Best Actress field with Annette Bening (Nyad) falling out.
Supporting Actress also sees a change as Viola Davis (Air) is back in over Rosamud Pike for Saltburn. It’s not a good update for Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature as it also drops from BP with Poor Things returning.
In another significant development, Cillian Murphy’s work in Oppenheimer rises to #1 in Best Actor for the first time over Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon).
You can expect one more update at month’s end before the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto festivals arrive and dramatically reshape the race. That’s where we’ll catch our first glimpses and see first reactions to many contenders. They include Maestro, Poor Things, Rustin, The Killer, Ferrari, Priscilla, El Conde, Dumb Money, Nyad, Lee, One Life, Next Goal Wins, and more.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maestro (PR: 8) (+3)
6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saltburn (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Air (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Ferrari (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Killer (PR: 16) (-1)
18. Asteroid City (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+1)
20. May December (PR: 17) (-3)
21. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Piano Lesson (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Rustin (PR: 21) (-3)
25. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Priscilla
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Michael Mann, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Saoirse Ronan, Foe (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: 10) (E)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 13) (E)
14. Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helena Bonham Carter, One Life (PR: 13) (+2)
1.2 Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12 ) (-1)
14. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Audra McDonald, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Glynn Turman, Rustin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Saltburn (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maestro (PR: 7) (+3)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Air (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fair Play (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Rustin (PR: 10 (E)
11. Napoleon (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 15) (+3)
13. The Book of Clarence (PR: 11) (-2)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bob Marley: One Love
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. BlackBerry (PR: 10) (+2)
9. One Life (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Killer (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ferrari
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 3) (E)
4. Monster (PR: 4) (E)
5.The Taste of Things (formerly The Pot-Au-Feu) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. Fallen Leaves (PR: 8) (+1)
8. El Conde (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 9) (E)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
9. Ernest and Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (E)
3. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Every Body (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wild Life (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Black Ice (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kokomo City
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Killer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ferrari (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (E)
5. Napoleon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Chevalier (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Oppenheimer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maestro (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Air (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ferrari (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saltburn
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Poor Things (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Glaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Priscilla (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Golda (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beau is Afraid (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wonka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Color Purple
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elemental (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Killer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Napoleon
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (+5)
5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 3) (E)
4. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (E)
7. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maestro (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+6)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maestro (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Creator (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 6) (E)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blue Beetle (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Barbie
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these films:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
7 Nominations
Barbie, Maestro
6 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives, Poor Things
5 Nominations
The Zone of Interest
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon
2 Nominations
Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Every Body, Ferrari, May December, Monster, Priscilla, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
The box office and critical phenomenon known as Barbenheimer looms large over my first August Oscar predictions. I toyed with moving Oppenheimer and its maker Christopher Nolan to the #1 spots in BP and Director. They sit in second with Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon clinging to the top. On the other hand, Robert Downey Jr.’s work in Oppenheimer is now first over Robert De Niro from Killers.
Meanwhile, I have finally put Barbie in my ten BP contenders and that takes out Air. While it materializes in the big race, I’m still keeping Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie out of Director and Actress, respectively.
We are a month away from the triumvirate of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. They will undoubtedly shape and alter what you read below. Here’s where I believe it stands right now.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maestro (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Poor Things (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Air (PR: 9) (-3)
13. The Holdovers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Napoleon (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Killer (PR: 21) (+5)
17. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
18. Ferrari (PR: 22) (+4)
19. Asteroid City (PR: 17) (-2)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Rustin (PR: 19) (-2)
22. The Piano Lesson (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Priscilla (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
BlackBerry
The Book of Clarence
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (E)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 12) (E)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 13) (E)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: 14) (E)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 10) (E)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emily Blunt, Pain Hustlers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Judy Greer, Eric Larue
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 10) (+4)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Anthony Hopkins, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 11) (E)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (E)
13. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 7) (-7)
15. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
David Strathairn, A Little Prayer
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (E)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
11. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Helena Bonham-Carter, One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
14. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (-1)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 4) (E)
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 15) (+5)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Matt Damon, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 9) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Matt Bomer, Maestro
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 3) (E)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Maestro (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)
9. Napoleon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rustin (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Fair Play (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Drive Away Dolls
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Poor Things (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. Next Goal Wins (PR: 13) (+4)
10. BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (-2)
13. The Killer (PR: 11) (-2)
14. One Life (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dumb Money
Freud’s Last Session
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 2) (E)
3. About Dry Grasses (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Monster (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Pot-Au-Feu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 6) (E)
7. El Conde (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Fallen Leaves (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)
10. La Chimera (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Perfect Days
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Killer (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Napoleon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barbie (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Asteroid City (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Napoleon (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Maestro (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Napoleon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Creator (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wonka (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Spaceman
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon
8 Nominations
Barbie
7 Nominations
The Color Purple, Past Lives
6 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Anatomy of a Fall, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
3 Nominations
Maestro
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
20 Days in Mariupol, About Dry Grasses, Air, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Ferrari, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds and Snakes, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, Nyad, The Pot-Au-Feu, Rustin, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
It is the weekend of “Barbenheimer” as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posting fantastic results at the box office. With their review embargoes lifted, the always to be inextricably linked pics have established themselves as Oscar players.
When I did my previous predictions two weeks ago, one of the questions centered on which performers could be singled out for recognition. Obviously we knew about Cillian Murphy and Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling’s supporting turn, but what else? The answer it seems is Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer and maybe America Ferrera for Barbie. Matt Damon is still worth mentioning for Oppenheimer, but Downey Jr. clearly has the most significant buzz.
And… surprise! This is the first write-up where I am including all races covering feature-length motion pictures. I do so at a precarious time. While “Barbenheimer” is viable in many competitions, the release calendar for the remainder of 2023 is unpredictable.
That is, of course, due to the SAG-AFTRA strike and a fear that it could drag on for weeks or months. On Friday, Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers gave up its prime spot opening the Venice Film Festival and moved from September to April 2024. If you believe it’ll be the last movie to do so, think again. There’s already rumors that Dune: Part Two and/or The Color Purple (two potential heavy hitters) could move to ’24. I am keeping all currently scheduled titles in the mix until I hear different. Just know that some of the projects listed below may not be here for long.
Sometimes a trailer can either boost your hopes for a film’s awards potential or dilute it. I could be wrong, but Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is an example of the latter when its first look was revealed this week. Soon enough we’ll see if my first impression was on the money.
For these initial projections covering all races, I’ll keep it at 25 possibilities for BP and 15 for the other top of the line derbies (the four acting ones and two screenplay contests). For all others, I will list my top 10.
With all that said, let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Oppenheimer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Color Purple (PR: 4) (-1)
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 6) (E)
7. Saltburn (PR: 7) (E)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Air (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Maestro (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Barbie (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Poor Things (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Napoleon (PR: 16) (+1)
16. May December (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Asteroid City (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Rustin (PR: 21) (+2)
20. The Piano Lesson (PR: 19) (-1)
21. The Killer (PR: 25) (+4)
22. Ferrari (PR: 24) (+2)
23. BlackBerry (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (-1)
25. The Book of Clarence (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ridley Scott, Napoleon (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. David Fincher, The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ben Affleck, Air
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 14) (E)
15. Judy Greer, Eric Larue (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 9) (E)
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Matt Damon, Air (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ed Harris, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)
14. David Strathairn, A Little Prayer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Adam Driver, Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andre Holland, The Actor
Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 2) (E)
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Aunjanue Ellis, The Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-3)
12. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer
Tilda Swinton, The Killer
Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune: Part Two
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: Not Ranked)
4. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Ben Affleck, Air (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jesse Plemons, Killers. of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Matt Bomer, Maestro (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 10) (-4)
15. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Past Lives (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saltburn (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Air (PR: 4) (E)
5. May December (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maestro (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Asteroid City (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Rustin (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Napoleon (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Drive Away Dolls (PR: 13) (+2)
12. The Book of Clarence (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Boy and the Heron (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Fair Play (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Iron Claw (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Barbie (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Poor Things (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 8) (E)
9. BlackBerry (PR: 14) (+5)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. The Killer (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Dumb Money (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Freud’s Last Session (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Monster
4. About Dry Grasses
5. The Pot-au-Feu
Other Possibilities:
6. The Boy and the Heron
7. Perfect Days
8. The Delinquents
9. Fallen Leaves
10. La Chimera
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Other Possibilities:
6. Nimona
7. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
8. Robot Dreams
9. The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol
10. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
3. The Eternal Memory
4. The Mother of All Lies
5. Wild Life
Other Possibilities:
6. 20 Days in Mariupol
7. Every Body
8. Kokomo City
9. Black Ice
10. It Ain’t Over
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Napoleon
5. The Color Purple
Other Possibilities:
6. The Killer
7. Poor Things
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Ferrari
10. Asteroid City
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Color Purple
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Chevalier
8. Oppenheimer
9. Wonka
10. Asteroid City
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. Air
Other Possibilities:
6. The Color Purple
7. Saltburn
8. Maestro
9. The Killer
10. Napoleon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Poor Things
3. Maestro
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. Barbie
Other Possibilities:
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Golda
8. Beau is Afraid
9. The Color Purple
10. Priscilla
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Elemental
5. Past Lives
Other Possibilities:
6. Poor Things
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
8. Napoleon
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from “The Color Purple”
2. “The Wish” from Wish
3. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
4. “Just Ken” from Barbie
5. TBD from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Other Possibilities:
6. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady
7. “Steal the Show” from Elemental
8. “Dance the Night” from Barbie
9. “Quiet Eyes” From Past Lives
10. “Am I Dreaming?” from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Napoleon
Other Possibilities:
6. Barbie
7. Asteroid City
8. The Zone of Interest
9. The Color Purple
10. Wonka
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Napoleon
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Spider-Man: Acrossthe Spider-Verse
Other Possibilities:
6. Ferrari
7. The Color Purple
8. Maestro
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Killer
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Wonka
Other Possibilities:
6. Napoleon
7. Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Poor Things
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Spaceman
And that, ladies and gents, gives us the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
The Color Purple
7 Nominations
Past Lives
6 Nominations
Barbie
5 Nominations
Poor Things
4 Nominations
Air, Anatomy of a Fall
3 Nominations
Maestro, Napoleon, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest
2 Nominations
Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish
1 Nomination
About Dry Grasses, The Boy and the Heron, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Long Day’s Journey Into Night, May December, Monster, The Mother of All Lies, The Pot-au-Feu, Rustin, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wild Life, Wonka
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