Tag: Kristin Wiig

Box Office Results: Christmas 2013 Weekend

There was a whole bunch of new movies that opened Christmas Day, but numbers 1-4 were occupied by holdovers. The Wolf of Wall Street was the top newcomer while The Secret Life of Walter Mitty had a just OK opening and 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, and Justin Bieber’s Believe disappointed.

For the third weekend in a row, it was The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug at the top spot with $29.8 million – above my $25.7M estimate. The middle chapter in Peter Jackson’s Tolkien trilogy has earned $190 million in its three weeks of release so far.

Disney’s Frozen was close behind with $28.8 million, surpassing my $22.1M projection. The animated feature has grossed an impressive $248 million so far and should go north of $300 million when all is said and done.

Ron Burgundy and company were third with Anchorman: The Legend Continues earning $20.1 million in weekend #2, right in line with my $19.6M estimate. Anchorman has made $83.6 million so far, nearly matching the entire domestic gross of the original.

David O. Russell’s awards contender American Hustle was fourth with $19.5 million – beyond my $14.9M projection. Hustle has grossed $60 million in two weeks and is very likely to cross the century mark at some point.

It was Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street taking honors as top newbie. The three hour sex and drugs fest with Leo DiCaprio made $18.5 million over the Friday-to-Sunday portion of the weekend and $34.3 million since its Wednesday debut. While this is below my respective estimates of $25.4M and $44.2M, this is still a solid opening. Where Wolf could soon falter is with its C Cinemascore average. Audiences are clearly not liking what they’re seeing and there could be rather substantial drop-offs in future weekends.

Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks had a big jump in its second weekend with $14 million for sixth, above my $10.6M estimate. It’s earned $37.8M in two weeks.

Ben Stiller’s comedic drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty was seventh with $13 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $25.5 million since the Wednesday start, outpacing my projections of $11.7M and $19.3M. This opening could best be described as middle of the pack and it’ll be interesting to see how it holds up over the next couple of weekends.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was eighth with $10.2 million, above my $7.7M projection. Fire has made $391 million since its November opening, currently sits at #18 for all-time domestic grossers, and still looks to top Iron Man 3 as 2013’s biggest hit.

The martial arts flick with Keanu Reeves 47 Ronin opened at ninth with $9.8 million over Friday-to-Sunday and $20.5 million since Wednesday. It earned under my predicted three-day estimated (I said $11.4M) but over my five-day estimate ($17.8M). Look for it to fade fast.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas rounded out the Top Ten with $7.4 million (I didn’t predict it would be in the top ten).

This left the Sylvester Stallone/Robert De Niro comedy Grudge Match at #11 with a very poor opening well below my expectations. Match grossed $7.3 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $13.4 million since Wednesday. I thought it would do much better and predicted $13.9M for the three-day and $24.5M for the five-day. Oops. This is Stallone’s third bomb of the year after Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan.

Finally, Beliebers totally failed to turn out for his documentary Believe. It sputtered at #14 with $2 million from Friday-to-Sunday and $4.2 million since the Wednesday start. I predicted it would do $5.8M for the three-day and $10.3 million for the five. Oops again.

Whew. And there’s your Christmas weekend box office results! Be sure to check the blog later today for my prediction next weekend’s only newcomer, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.

Box Office Predictions: Christmas Weekend 2013

It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.

Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.

One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)

4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

5. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Grudge Match

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)

7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)

8. 47 Ronin

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)

9. Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)

10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.

And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!

 

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Box Office Prediction

One of the big question marks entering into the crowded Christmas holiday season is how The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will perform at the box office.

Ben Stiller directs and stars in the fantasy themed drama, which is loosely based on a 1947 Danny Kaye picture of the same name. Walter Mitty has been in development for nearly two decades. During that time period, various directors and actors were attached to the project including Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, Gore Verbinski, Jim Carrey, Owen Wilson, Mike Myers, and Sacha Baron Cohen. Eventually it turned into a vehicle for Mr. Stiller, making his first directorial effort since 2008’s Tropic Thunder. Kristin Wiig and Sean Penn are among the costars.

At one time, Mitty was seen as a potential awards contender but the reviews have ended that prospect. The pic has generated mixed reviews and stands at a troubling 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. As has become a theme in my Christmas box office predictions, the high amount of competition is a factor in my estimate. This picture is going for an adult audience and there’s The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle out there. Those seeking a film with comedic elements may look to Anchorman 2 or Grudge Match. There’s also Saving Mr. Banks, which I anticipate will perform well in its second weekend after a rather soft debut. This all leads to me to believe that Mitty, coupled with its middling reviews, could get somewhat lost in the holiday shuffle.

I’m not convinced the pic’s marketing campaign has been successful in drawing significant audience interest for it. Mitty may struggle to reach $20 million over the five-day holiday time period.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty box office prediction: $11.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $19.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 20-22

In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.

This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.

There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.

Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.

Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.

Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Box Office Prediction

If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.

As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.

For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.

Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.

What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.

You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.

With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.

Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my Saving Mr. Banks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/saving-mr-banks-box-office-prediction/

For my American Hustle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/american-hustle-box-office-prediction/

For my Walking with Dinosaurs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/15/walking-with-dinosaurs-box-office-prediction/

2013: The Year of Melissa McCarthy

In the summer of 2011, the star of the CBS sitcom “Mike and Molly” Melissa McCarthy broke through to moviegoers in grand fashion with her supporting role in Bridesmaids. The film was a smash, grossing $169 million and earning McCarthy a rare Supporting Actress Oscar nomination for a comedic role.

After that terrific Bridesmaids part, McCarthy pretty much sat 2012 out with just a small part in Judd Apatow’s This Is 40. 2013 is a different story and this year has solidified McCarthy’s standing as Hollywood’s most bankable funny girl.

February’s Identity Thief with Jason Bateman would put her box office abilities to the test. It received mostly poor reviews and gave McCarthy her first starring role. The result? Thief grossed a fabulous $134 million. Critics may not have been on its side, but audiences were.

In June, McCarthy would pair up with Sandra Bullock in the buddy cop flick The Heat and it managed to accelerate the star’s box office cache. The Heat earned $159 million giving McCarthy two laugh fests that easily crossed the century mark domestically.

Technically, there were three pics featuring her that crossed that milestone. McCarthy had a small role in The Hangover Part III, which made $112 million but was considered a financial disappointment. However, its subpar performance had nothing to do with McCarthy.

In addition to her work on her sitcom, 2014 will see McCarthy on the silver screen with two promising projects. There’s St. Vincent de Van Nuys which pairs her with bonafide comedic legend Bill Murray. July 4th brings us Tammy, a road trip pic that also features Susan Sarandon, Dan Aykroyd, and Kathy Bates.

Bridesmaids proved that McCarthy had the potential to be a major film star. Her movies in 2013 turned that potential into reality and it earns her a deserved spot on the list of performers who had a big impact this year.

My final entry in this blog series arrives tomorrow with an actor who was everywhere in 2013 from a famous yellow bricked land to… brilliantly spoofing a famous rapper’s ridiculous video?

You Could See That Pierre Did Truly Love The Mademoiselle: My Blog Turns 1 Years Old!

It was a Thursday autumn evening one year ago when I was sitting at my computer and on a snap decision, I said to myself, “Screw it – I’m starting a movie blog. Right now.”

I had thought about it before, but obviously never acted on the notion. I knew two things: I seriously love movies. And I seriously love writing about them. That’s all I knew. I had no clue – none – on that Thursday night what the blog would be… other than it would be about movies. I wrote my inaugural post quickly and titled it My Love of Movies. This is what I wrote moments after that snap decision entered my head:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/10/11/my-love-of-movies/

That same night, I wrote my second post, which was my first entry in my Movie Perfection series. This one is about 1995’s Seven. I have said before that the Movie Perfection posts are my very favorite to write:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/10/11/movie-perfection-the-final-act-of-seven/

Since then my examples of Movie Perfection has expanded to a Raquel Welch poster leading Tim Robbins to glorious freedom in The Shawshank Redemption. The brilliantly edited sequence in Moneyball where we hear the crack of a baseball bat that signals validation for Brad Pitt’s character. Christian Bale hilariously turning into a music critic as he extols the virtues of Genesis, Huey Lewis, and Whitney Houston in American Psycho. A vehicle full of rockers and groupies coming together to the sound of Elton John’s “Tiny Dancer” in Almost Famous. The birth of Melissa McCarthy’s movie stardom as she tells Kristin Wiig to stop blaming the world for her problems in Bridesmaids. A letter written by Bradley Cooper to Jennifer Lawrence expressing his love for her in Silver Linings Playbook. An absolutely stunningly beautiful and emotional animated montage that chronicles a couple’s life together in Pixar’s Up.

One year ago, it’s hard to describe how terrific that evening was as I began the blog. Those who know me know my passion for film and writing. The fact that it took so long to bring that passion to a blog confounds me now. What took so damn long? Oh well – the point is, it exists now. And truth be told – I cannot imagine it not existing now.

I know it may sound cheesy, but it really does mean a lot to me that this blog has people reading it. Honestly, I can love doing it (and I do), but what’s the point if no one reads the damn thing?

A year ago in that first My Love of Movies post, I described the sense of wonder I experienced when viewing Pulp Fiction on the big screen for the first time. It’s what you hope for every time you go to the theater. Pulp Fiction is filled with moments that reiterate to me why I love movies. One scene is the famous John Travolta/Uma Thurman dance scene set to a rockin Chuck Berry tune. It is yet another example of Movie Perfection, as is nearly everything Quentin Tarantino does. I began this blog discussing the unforgettable title credit sequence set to Dick Dale’s “Misirlou” in Pulp Fiction. A year later, it comes full circle with that fantastic dance scene and Chucky Berry.

As I sit here on another Thursday autumn evening a year later, I am thankful for snap decisions. Mostly, I’m thankful to you for rewarding my snap decision. I started this little blog on a whim and truly wasn’t sure if I would love doing it or not. That is no longer a question in my head. It goes to show you never can tell. There’s a great lyric in that Chucky Berry song where Vincent Vega and Mia Wallace dance and that serves as the title of this anniversary post. “You Could See That Pierre Did Truly Love The Mademoiselle.” In this instance, I’m Pierre. This blog is The Mademoiselle. The readers of this blog are The Mademoiselle, too. Thank you.

2013 Comedy Summer Movie Preview: Vaughn&Wilson, McCarthy, Rogen, and Wiig

Every summer, we usually see a major breakout comedy that connects with audiences across the board. Last season, it was Ted which earned $218 million. In 2011, it was The Hangover Part II with $254 million, as well as Bridesmaids ($169M) and Horrible Bosses ($119M). In 2010, Grown Ups brought in $162 million. In 2009, the original Hangover grossed $277 million and The Proposal made $163 million.

This summer, there’s no shortage of contenders. The comedy winner could be The Hangover Part III and that film was already covered in my sequels blog post. However, that film faces serious challengers, particularly from two titles:

From Bridesmaids director Paul Feig comes The Heat, a buddy cop comedy starring Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy. This is Bullock’s first headlining role since her Oscar winning turn in The Blind Side. Added to that, McCarthy is a hot commodity right now with her spring comedy Identity Thief well exceeding analysts expectations. The Heat could easily post Bridesmaids size numbers when it opens June 28th.

We also have The Internship, which reteams Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson. Their first collaboration was, of course, Wedding Crashers. That came out in the summer of 2005 and grossed an astonishing $209 million. If The Internship delivers, it could be a real factor in the top comedy discussions. It’s out on June 7th.

These three titles are likely to have a healthy competition for the top spot (Grown Ups 2 is probably poised to earn between $100-$125 million and has also been covered in my sequels write-up).

There are plenty of other comedies that will attempt to bring crowds in. Two high-profile entries have yet to release a trailer: the road trip flick We’re the Millers (August 9) with Jason Sudeikis and Jennifer Aniston and Girl Most Likely (July 19), which brings us Kristin Wiig’s first starring role since Bridesmaids. 

Then we have This is the End (June 12), which has Jonah Hill, James Franco, Seth Rogen, Danny McBride, Michael Cera, and others playing themselves in an end of the world scenario. The trailers are pretty damn funny and I’m particularly looking forward to this one. End could be a major breakout player if it’s as funny as its potential suggests.

The Tyler Perry factory brings us Peeples (May 10) starring the very funny Craig Robinson, who also is featued in This is the End. It basically looks like the Tyler Perry version of Meet the Parents, which his name alone will likely mean solid grosses.

The coming of age flick The Way, Way Back (July 5) with Steve Carell received rave reviews at Sundance and is being looked at as a potential sleeper hit.

And Woody Allen brings us his movie a year with Blue Jasmine (July 26) with Cate Blanchett and Alec Baldwin. Two years ago, Woody had an unexpected hit with Midnight in Paris. However, last summer his To Rome with Love tanked. No trailer is available at press time.

All in all, there are plenty of comedies to choose from this summer. If some Hangover fatigue occurs (something which I believe is possible), don’t be surprised to see Bullock and McCarthy as the comedy champions of the season.