In Your Dreams is in limited theatrical release this weekend before its Netflix streaming premiere on November 14th. The animated comedic adventure marks the directorial debut of Alex Woo with a voice cast including Jolie Hoang-Rappaport, Elias Janssen, Craig Robinson, Simu Liu, and Cristin Milioti.
Some reviews are complimentary with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes though Metacritic is at a more earthbound 56. Perhaps once seen as the streamer’s most viable contender in Best Animated Feature, that designation has been grabbed by cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters. I doubt Dreams will make the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:
Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.
That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.
Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Song Song Blue
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)
And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
1 Nominations
28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2
Based on a 2000 novel from Amélie Nothomb, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain was first seen at the Cannes Film Festival. The animated coming-of-age tale has already been released in its native France and is likely to see stateside distribution by year’s end. Maïlys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han co-direct with a voice cast including Loïse Charpentier, Victoria Grosbois and Yumi Fujimori.
In a Best Animated Feature race that isn’t exactly overflowing with possibilities, I’ve had Amélie making the cut in recent weeks via the 4th or 5th slot. The reviews are there with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t think it’s a threat to win and that’s partly due to the cultural juggernaut that is KPop Demon Hunters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.
This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.
While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.
Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).
In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.
And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.
You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Hedda
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)
4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
11 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Hamnet
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Bugonia
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
As they always do, the trilogy of late summer/early fall festivals in Venice, Toronto and Telluride tremendously shaped the Oscar landscape a few weeks ago. The in-progress New York fest has a smaller imprint, but we did see the premiere of Ronan Day-Lewis’s Anemone before its semi-wide release this weekend. Starring his three-time Oscar winning father Daniel, the screenings keep him in the convo for Best Actor while its Picture, Director and Original Screenplay possibilities fell by the wayside. If its lead were to make the cut in the Actor quintet, he could bring costars Sean Bean and Samantha Morton with him in the supporting fields. However, I think that’s a long shot.
New York’s closer is Is This Thing On? from Bradley Cooper. His two other behind the camera works (A StarIs Born, Maestro) were both BP contenders. When I do my next update, we’ll know its viability in all races from BP to the acting contests for Will Arnett, Laura Dern and Cooper himself.
In other news, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another performed respectably though didn’t surpass expectations in its box office debut. I still believe ranking it 1st in BP, Director and Adapted Screenplay is the right play with its terrific reviews. Benicio del Toro pops up in the top 10 for Supporting Actor though it could be a stretch for both him and Sean Penn to get in. That said, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti are both viable in Supporting Actress. In fact, I’m elevating Infiniti for the first time in that race with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside.
In a best case scenario, Battle could see five of its performers up for gold (with Leonardo DiCaprio in lead Actor). Nine pictures have managed that feat in Oscar history: 1942’s Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve from 1950, 1953’s From Here to Eternity, 1954’s On the Waterfront, 1957’s Peyton Place, 1963’s Tom Jones, 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde, 1974’s The Godfather Part II, and Network from 1976, Worth noting is that it’s been almost half a century since it last happened.
Another newcomer this weekend is Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine and it is struggling mightily at the box office. With more reviews out that are far from raves, I’m more skeptical that Dwayne Johnson or Emily Blunt get nominated. The best bet for inclusion is Makeup and Hairstyling and I’m not even convinced it gets in there.
Bugonia has fallen out of my BP top ten with Avatar: Fire and Ash returning to the lineup. This could be temporary, but we’ll see how the reaction to Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest is when it debuts later this month.
There’s a change in Best Actor with George Clooney as Jay Kelly returning to the projected quintet and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) dropping.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 11) (+2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
8. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? – moved to Original Screenplay
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
My Father’s Shadow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
And that all equates to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Sinners
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
No Other Choice
2 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.
Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.
That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).
As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):
Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.
The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).
Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.
Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.
Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).
Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.
Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.
You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)
24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Ballad of a Small Player
La Grazia
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Hikari, Rental Family
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)
15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)
12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)
14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)
15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
The Rivals of Amziah King
Anemone
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ballad of a Small Player
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Late Fame
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
La Grazia
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
Deaf President Now!
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Couture
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Christy
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
How to Train Your Dragon
That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Winner: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2
Three newcomers and one summer classic celebrating a half century in existence will work hard to earn box office dollars this Labor Day weekend. We have comedy remake The Roses with Benedict Cumberbatch and Olivia Colman, Darren Aronofsky’s crime thriller Caught Stealing starring Austin Butler and Zoë Kravitz, Peter Dinklage in the splatter reboot The Toxic Avenger Unrated, and the 50th anniversary reissue of Steven Spielberg’s Jaws out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
We’ll discuss Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters A Sing-Along Event in the results section below. We know it won’t be #1 since the streamer put it out only as a two-day multiplex event on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.
That means Weapons should return to the top spot as I don’t see the fresh foursome challenging it. The acclaimed horror flick should remain in the teens as holdovers usually have meager declines or even slight increases over the Friday to Monday of Labor Day weekend compared to the previous weekend.
The Roses could manage the best start of the new titles though I have it slightly behind the fourth weekend of Freakier Friday.
Caught Stealing might be stuck in fourth with The Fantastic Four: First Steps just behind in fifth and the Jaws reissue in sixth.
As for Toxic, my $1.8 million guesstimate puts it far down the charts.
The only placement I’m confident in is Weapons in 1st while the others jockey for position. Keep in mind that these estimates are made for the four-day holiday and here’s how I envision the top six:
1. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
2. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
3. The Roses
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. Caught Stealing
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
6. Jaws 50th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 22-24)
After two months plus on the streaming service, Netflix made an unconventional move by releasing a sing-along version of their massive hit KPop Demon Hunters on Saturday and Sunday. They were conventional in not officially reporting its numbers. However, estimates put it at $19.2 million and that’s ahead of my $13.8 million call and easily strong enough for 1st place. With an over $11k plus per screen average, kids had no trouble getting their folks to bring them out. The specialized engagement is only for the aforementioned two days.
Weapons was second with $15.4 million, just under my $16.1 million projection. Zach Cregger’s disappearance tale has amassed $115 million in three weeks.
Freakier Friday was third with $8.8 million, on pace with my $8.7 million forecast. The Disney sequel has taken in $70 million after three weeks.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, in week five, was fourth with $6 million (I said $5.8 million) for $257 million thus far.
The Bad Guys 2 rounded out the top five with $5.1 million, in line with my $5.2 million call for $66 million in four weeks.
Action sequel Nobody 2 tumbled 60% in its sophomore outing with $3.7 million. I was a bit more generous at $4.8 million. The tally is a mere $16 million.
Finally, Ethan Coen’s noirish comedy Honey Don’t! opened in 8th with $3 million. That’s nothing to brag about, but it did outshine my $1.8 million prediction.
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
You might not know it, but Ne Zha 2 is smashing records overseas before the A24 distributed English dub (featuring Michelle Yeoh among the voice cast) hits domestic venues this weekend. The animated Chinese fantasy is the follow-up to 2019’s original and comes from filmmaker Yang Yu, better known as Jiaozi.
The sequel was out in its home country in January before rolling out to additional territories throughout the winter and spring. With $2.2 billion in its coffers, Zha is already the highest grossing animated feature in history (surpassing Inside Out 2).
How will that translate to awards prospects? While it sports 96% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 63 Metacritic score indicates many reviews weren’t over the top in their praise. I will note that part one was China’s submission for Best International Feature Film back at the 92nd Academy Awards and it didn’t land a nom. That race seems out of reach for the 98th ceremony.
This could still manage to nab one of the five Best Animated Feature slots. Yet I’ll note that foreign competition is serious this time around with KPop Demon Hunters, Arco, and Scarlet among titles jockeying for position. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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