Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.
Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?
Best International Feature Film
Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves
There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper
Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.
Best Original Score
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.
Best Original Song
Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz
The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked
In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.
Best Sound
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).
Best Visual Effects
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked
I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.
Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).
A boatload of Oscar precursor nominations have rolled in since I last forecasted my predictions on December 1st from the Golden Globes to Critics Choice to AFI and the National Board of Review. As is usually the case, it causes certain performers and pictures to be much more assured in their position of getting in the Academy mix. Yet it can also muddy up the waters for others. A Real Pain missing Critics Choice was a surprising snub. Sing Sing performed poorly at the Globes. Blitz and Gladiator II are all but out of the Best Picture equation. I could go on and on but let’s focus on what’s changed in my projections for the major races since the dawn of December.
While my BP lineup remains the same, I came darn close to putting A Complete Unknown in over either Sing Sing or A Real Pain. It has a strong shot after getting Globe and Critics Choice nods in the big dance. I also flirted with putting Conclave at #1, but have The Brutalist still in first in a wider open field than normal in mid-December. The most significant climber is The Substance from 10th to 7th.
For the first time this year after multiple posts beginning in the spring, Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) is not listed in my director five. Jacques Audiard jumps back in for Emilia Pérez. I feel pretty good about my top 7 making the cut in the race. Obviously that’s problematic since only five can.
Despite no recognition from the Globes, Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) vaults into my Actress quintet though I was reluctant to drop Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).
While my Best Actor five is intact, Timothée Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown rises from 4th to 2nd. He has emerged as a genuine challenger for the gold (along with Ralph Fiennes in Conclave) to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. Another development: after unexpectedly landing Globe and CCA noms, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is in Other Possibilities for the first time.
While my Supporting Actress field remains the same, I’m putting Yura Borisov (Anora) in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Conclave‘s Stanley Tucci, who missed CCA and the Globes.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Substance (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (+4)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilie Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-3)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 8) (E)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rosselini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (E)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Queer
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Armand
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilites:
6. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Spellbound (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A New Kind of Wilderness
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anora
Blitz
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Challengers (PR: 7) (+4)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dune: Part Two – deemed ineligible
Saturday Night
Blitz
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilties:
6. “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Twisters
Conclave
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Better Man (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
6 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Better Man, A Complete Unknown, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Nominations for the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards were out this morning in a bustling week of precursor activity. I went 108 for 131 in my overall predictions in the feature film races. Let’s briefly go through each competition listing the nominees, how I did, and what I missed.
Best Picture
Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 8/10
A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys get in over my picks of Challengers and A Real Pain
Best Director
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
How I Did: 6/8
The “How I Did” number is misleading as I assumed there would be 6 nominated filmmakers and not 8. I correctly named six who made it, but didn’t predict Audiard and Ross.
Best Ensemble
Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Saturday Night, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I had The Brutalist and not Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
How I Did: 5/6
Jean-Baptiste, who was snubbed for a Golden Globe nom, is in over Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) who did nab a GG mention.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Hugh Grant (Heretic)
How I Did: 5/6
A surprising selection of Grant over my pick of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice. Three days after garnering a Globe slot in Actor (Musical or Comedy), is it possible that Grant makes it in with the Academy?
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 5/6
A solid showing for Nickel Boys this morning. Ellis-Taylor in over Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
How I Did: 4/6
Borisov and Norton are up instead of Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). Tucci has now missed GG and CCA. Borisov and Norton have made both.
Best Young Actor/Actress
Alyla Browne (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail), Zoe Ziegler (Janet Planet)
How I Did: 4/6
Browne and Ziegler over Nykiya Adams (Bird) and Anora‘s Mark Eidelstein.
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Perez and not The Room Next Door.
Best Foreign Language Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, Flow, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
How I Did: 5/6
Flow and not Vermiglio.
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 5/5
I thought there would be six nominees so I also selected Transformers One. CCA decided to go with a handful of animated titles. I’m counting it as 5/5. I’ll be taking no questions.
Best Comedy
Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, My Old Ass, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
How I Did: 5/6
I had the critics considering Anora a comedy, but they didn’t so it’s My Old Ass instead (which was my runner-up).
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 4/6
Nosferatu and Wicked over Challengers and Emilia Pérez.
Best Costume Design
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
Conclave and not Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune, September 5
How I Did: 5/6
September 5 gets in and not The Substance.
Best Hair and Makeup
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
How I Did: 5/6
I went with Emilia Pérez. They went with Conclave.
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
Yay!
Best Song
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl; “Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 5/6
“Beautiful” is in; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing is out.
Best Visual Effects
Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 3/6
My weakest showing as Better Man, Gladiator II, and The Substance are honored instead of Deadpool & Wolverine, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. and Twisters.
And there you have it. Below are the total numbers of nominations for respective pictures. I’ll have winner predictions up shortly before the January 12th ceremony!
11 Nominations
Conclave, Wicked
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
The Brutalist
7 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
5 Nominations
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Challengers, Gladiator II, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Flow, Maria, My Old Ass, Saturday Night, September 5
1 Nomination
Abigail, All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dídi, A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Janet Planet, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, The Last Showgirl, Memoir of a Snail, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Chelsea Handler returns to host the 30th Critics’ Choice Awards occurring January 12th and tomorrow brings the nominations. The ceremony can often be a reliable barometer for the Oscars. In the last two years, it agreed on Picture and Director with the Academy and went 5 for 8 in the acting derbies.
At CCA, there are 10 Best Film contenders and then 6 in the other races. Here’s my projections along with a runner-up selection for all competitions. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow with how I did and overall thoughts!
Best Film
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
Runner- Up: September 5
Best Director
Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
Runner-Up: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Best Ensemble
Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
Runner-Up: Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)
Best Actor
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Best Supporting Actress
Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariane Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Runner-Up: Selena Gomez (Emila Pérez)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
Runner-Up: Yura Borisov (Anora)
Best Original Screenplay
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
Runner-Up: Saturday Night
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, Wicked
Runner-Up: Emilia Pérez
Best Foreign Film
All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
Runner-Up: The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Transformers One, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Piece by Piece
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys
Runner-Up: Nosferatu
Best Costume Design
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Editing
Anora, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Makeup and Hair
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Production Design
The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
Runner-Up: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Score
The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
Runner-Up: Wicked
Best Song
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers; “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez; “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper; “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot; “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing; “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
Runner-Up: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
Best Visual Effects
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Twisters, Wicked
Runner-Up: Gladiator II
Best Comedy
Anora, Deadpool & Wolverine, Hit Man, A Real Pain, Saturday Night, Thelma
Runner-Up: My Old Ass
Best Young Actor
Nykiya Adams (Bird), Mark Eidelstein (Anora), Elliot Heffernan (Blitz), Maisy Stella (My Old Ass), Izaac Wang (Dídi), Alisha Weir (Abigail)
Runner-Up: Cailey Fleming (IF)
That works out to these numbers with The Brutalist leading with 11 and 4 movies tying with 10 nominations apiece:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
8 Nominations
Anora
7 Nominations
The Substance
6 Nominations
Challengers
4 Nominations
A Real Pain
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Maria, Nickel Boys
Nominations for perhaps the most recognizable Oscar precursor show were unveiled this morning. We now know the pictures and personnel contending for the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, airing January 5th with Nikki Glaser hosting.
There are always surprises to be found with unexpected additions and subtractions in the cinematic races and that held true. I went 74 for 92 in my predictions. Of the 15 feature film categories, I went 6/6 in five of them.
As I projected, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez led the way with 10 nominations followed by The Brutalist‘s seven and Conclave‘s 6. Let’s break down each competition with how I did and some commentary on where I see the races currently.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nickel Boys, September 5
How I Did: 5/6
September 5 gets in over Sing Sing. Perhaps the biggest shocker of the day is Sing Sing only generating one nomination for its lead Colman Domingo in Actor (Drama). Nickel Boys and September 5‘s noms mark their sole mentions. The Brutalist is probably out front but I wouldn’t sleep on Conclave.
Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Nominees: Anora, Challengers, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked
How I Did: 6/6
Pérez could emerge here considering the haul this morning though Anora and Wicked (to a slightly lesser degree) are possibilities.
Best Director
Nominees: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)
How I Did: 4/6
I did not have Berger (thought he was my runner-up) or Kapadia. Instead, I predicted Jon M. Chu (Wicked) and Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two. The latter is a surprising omission three years after he missed the cut at Oscar. Corbet is the favorite in my estimation even if it doesn’t take Motion Picture (Drama).
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Kate Winslet (Lee)
How I Did: 4/6
Anderson (my runner-up) and Torres are in contention over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. Jean-Baptiste is racking up critics awards and her omission is a bit unexpected. If Ronan can’t make it here, her Oscar odds are in serious trouble. This could come down to Jolie vs. Kidman. Fun fact: none of the pictures represented here are up for Best Drama (the only acting category where that is the case).
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
How I Did: 6/6
No surprises here as Brody, Chalamet, and Fiennes are vying for the statue.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance), Zendaya (Challengers)
How I Did: 5/6
Runner-up Adams is in over June Squibb (Thelma). Madison has the edge though I wouldn’t discount Erivo, Gascón, or Moore for the upset.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night), Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)
How I Did: 4/6
LaBelle and Plemons in with Michael Keaton (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice) and Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool & Wolverine) out. I don’t really think there’s a frontrunner though Eisenberg and Powell are maybe in the lead with Grant as a legit threat.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance), Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
How I Did: 6/6
Frankly I’m a little shocked I went 6 for 6 as there’s lots of contenders in this derby. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) is a snub many are pointing out. As for the winner, this is Grande vs. Saldaña.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
How I Did: 4/6
Culkin is getting lots of critics prize love while Pearce and Washington are threats. I didn’t have Norton or Strong and instead went with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) and Stanley Tucci (Conclave). I still think both of those performers could get into the Oscar dance.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, The Substance
How I Did: 5/6
Had Sing Sing instead of A Real Pain as Anora looks to nab this one.
Best Animated Motion Picture
Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
This went as planned and The Wild Robot looks to capture this prize with Flow (a critics darling) looking to disrupt that plan.
Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
Nominees: All We Imagine as Light, Emilia Pérez, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio
How I Did: 5/6
Logic says Perez, but Kapadia’s directing nod opens for the door for Light.
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2, Twisters, Wicked, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/8
Went with Despicable Me 4 and Dune: Part Two and not Romulus and The Wild Robot. Dune missing is head scratching. This would be a good place to honor Wicked though Deadpool is the year’s largest grosser.
Best Score
Nominees: The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, The Wild Robot
How I Did: 6/6
This looks kinda wide open to me at the moment, but The Brutalist might be the slight favorite.
Best Song
Nominees: “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
How I Did: 3/6
The blasted Song category represents my worst performance as “Beautiful” and “Compress” and “Forbidden” make the playlist over “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, and “Piece by Piece” from the same titled feature. Betting odds favor Pérez and I’d go with “El Mal” though “Sky” is a possibility.
I’ll have winner predictions shortly before the January 5th ceremony and here’s a breakdown of all the features nominated.
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, Wicked, The Wild Robot
3 Nominatons
A Complete Unknown
2 Nominations
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, The Last Showgirl
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Heretic, Hit Man, Kinds of Kindness, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, Sing Sing, Twisters, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards will come our way in a month on January 5th with Nikki Glaser handling hosting duties. Nominations are out this coming Monday (12/09). Readers of the blog know that I do a whole lotta Oscar speculating. That’s not the case with the GG’s but I’m giving you take on who and what will be nominated.
For the Globes, there are six nominees in each race with the exception of Cinematic and Box Office Achievement where there’s 8. I’ll give my picks along with a runner-up. Some quick notes: the Globes divide their Picture and lead acting derbies into Drama and Musical/Comedy. The designations below are the reported slots where films and performers are contending. Yes, there’s interesting choices with Heretic in comedy. On the flip side, if A Complete Unknown had submitted in Musical/Comedy, Timothée Chalamet might be the easy frontrunner in Best Actor.
Next week I’ll have a recap up with how I did and my early frontrunners for winners!
Best Motion Picture – Drama
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Anora
Challengers
Emilia Pérez
A Real Pain
The Substance
Wicked
ALTERNATE – A Different Man
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
ALTERNATE – Edward Berger, Conclave
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Kate Winslet, Lee
ALTERNATE – Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
ALTERNATE – John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comed
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
June Squibb, Thelma
Zendaya, Challengers
ALTERNATE – Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Hugh Grant, Heretic
Michael Keaton, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool & Wolverine
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
ALTERNATE – Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
ALTERNATE – Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
ALTERNATE – Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
The Substance
ALTERNATE – A Real Pain
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Moana 2
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – Piece by Piece
Best Non-English Language Film
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
The Girl with the Needle
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
ALTERNATE – Universal Language
Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Deadpool & Wolverine
Despicable Me 4
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Inside Out 2
Twisters
Wicked
ALTERNATE – Moana 2
Best Score
The Brutalist
Challengers
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
The Wild Robot
ALTERNATE – The Room Next Door
Best Song
“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
“Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
“Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
“Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece
ALTERNATE – “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance, Wicked
4 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
3 Nominations
Challengers, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Gladiator II, Inside Out 2
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Babygirl, Despicable Me 4, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Hard Truths, Heretic, Hit Man, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Lee, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Thelma, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
As December dawns, my first Oscar predictions in two weeks have substantial changes for us to mull over. It begins with Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance as I have put it in my Best Picture top ten where it had yet to be listed. I still have reservations about including it. This is not the type of genre material that Academy voters usually go for. However, it has its vocal admirers and is one of the most buzzed about pictures of 2024.
The love for The Substance doesn’t stop there. Fourteen days ago, I had it pegged for only a single nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling. Now I have it nabbing five other mentions: Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
My BP inclusion for The Substance knocks out Steve McQueen’s Blitz. In fact, Blitz has fallen the most in my estimation in recent days. Two weeks ago, I had it achieving five nods. Now I have it only managing a Best Sound mention.
In Director, Fargeat’s rise puts Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) on the outside looking in. There are two newbies in Best Actress: the aforementioned Demi Moore and Cynthia Erivo from the massively successful Wicked. Their additions subtract Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch).
Speaking of Wicked, Ariana Grande is now in my Supporting Actress quintet and that takes out… Saoirse Ronan for Blitz. That means that I went from projecting Ronan as a double nominee to none.
There are no changes in my Actor and Supporting Actor lineups. I will note that the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown has started industry screenings while the review embargo hasn’t lifted. The early buzz indicates that Timothée Chalamet is looking solid for a nom while its chances elsewhere are shakier.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in mid-December!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Substance (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Blitz (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (E)
15. A Complete Unknown (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Robert Eggers, Nosferatu
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. September 5 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 6) (E)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Grand Tour
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Transformers One (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Chicken for Linda! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Savages
Spellbound
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Union (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A New Kind of Wilderness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Anora (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emila Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. A Different Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper & Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond” from Moana 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Blitz (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Twisters (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Conclave, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Wicked
6 Nominations
Sing Sing, The Substance
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
My votes are in for my latest Oscar predictions at the 97th Academy Awards and I’ve elected to elevate Wicked into my BP top ten with Gladiator II sliding out. This is based on buzz for early screenings and I will readily admit that sometimes those viewings can elicit exaggerated reactions. We’ll see if Wicked sticks around in a way that Gladiator II didn’t (the two pics both open November 22nd).
In other movement, Edward Berger (Conclave) is back in my directorial quintet with RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) on the outside looking in. The five spot in Best Actor switches to Sebastian Stan playing a certain 45th POTUS with Daniel Craig (Queer) slipping. Ariana Grande’s witchy Wicked work enters the Supporting Actress derby with Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) falling to sixth place. In Supporting Actor, on the other hand, Conclave’s Stanley Tucci re-enters with Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) now out. You can peruse all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-3)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-1)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Substance (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
September 5
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)
8. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
8. September 5 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. The Substance (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
His Three Daughters
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Grand Tour (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Union (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daughters (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Maria (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10 (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)
7. Maria (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+4)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Beyond” from Moana 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Blitz (PR: 4) (E)
5. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Better Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. Here (PR: 5) (-5)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: PartTwo
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
8 Nominations
Conclave
6 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, Blitz, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
A Real Pain, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Twisters
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Nosferatu, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, The Substance, Union, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.
Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.
In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2.Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10.Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dídi
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cloud
Flow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
September 5
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visusal Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Gladiator II
6 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Blitz, Conclave
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked
2 Nominations
Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).
A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.
We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)
12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)
8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dahomey
Caught by the Tides
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 4) (E)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
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