2014: The Year of Kevin Hart

Continuing with my series of performers who had a big impact on film this year, part two of six brings us to Kevin Hart.

Not only is he one of the highest grossing stand-up comics around, this year proved he can truly headline at the multiplex as well. The biggest example came in January with the surprise hit buddy cop comedy Ride Along with Ice Cube. The pic amassed a fantastic $134 million gross and was #1 for four weeks. A sequel is already planned for January 2016.

February brought his supporting role in About Last Night which earned a respectable $48 million. In June came his sequel Think Like a Man Too, which topped out at $65 million (less than its predecessor, but still solid considering its $24M budget).

More than anything though, Ride Along made Hart a hot commodity and 2015 should keep the momentum going. January sees the premiere of The Wedding Ringer and in March, he teams up with Will Ferrell in Get Hard.

For my post on The Year of Shailene Woodley, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-shailene-woodley/

For my post on The Year of Scarlett Johannson, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-scarlett-johannson/

For my post on The Year of Chris Pratt, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-chris-pratt/

For my post on The Year of Angelina Jolie, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-angelina-jolie/

For my post on The Year of Michael Keaton, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/23/2014-the-year-of-michael-keaton/

Top Five Box Office Prediction

Chris Rock is back in headlining mode as Top Five enters theaters this Friday. The acclaimed comedian wrote and directed the comedy and he stars as well. The supporting cast includes Gabrielle Union, Rosario Dawson, Kevin Hart, Tracy Morgan, and Cedric the Entertainer.

Top Five has garnered the approval of the critical community and it stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. As for Rock, he’s been in supporting mode for the greater part of this decade as he played second fiddle to Adam Sandler and others in the Grown Ups series. Prior to that, he’s seen some decent successes with solo ventures including Down to Earth and Head of State.

Positive word of mouth and reviews should help Top Five open to a solid start. What will limit it is the fact that it’s debuting on a relatively low 975 screens. It should still manage to surpass double digits out of the gate.

Top Five opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my Exodus: Gods and Kings prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/12/06/exodus-gods-and-kings-box-office-prediction/

Ride Along Movie Review

When it comes to actors who have perfected the art of the scowl, Ice Cube is among the best. Whereas Will Ferrell and Gene Hackman are great cinematic yellers, Mr. Cube has displayed his knack for good scowling in numerous pictures – most notably the Jump Street franchise. He gets to scowl a lot at costar Kevin Hart in Ride Along.

Cube plays James, the hardened Atlanta detective. Hart is Ben, a wannabe cop currently pulling duty as a high school security guard. Ben is dating James’s girlfriend and he wants her brother’s blessing before he pops the question. James doesn’t believe he deserves her. He decides to kill two birds with one stone when he offers to take Ben on a ride along to prove he can’t hack it in the law enforcement world or in his family.

What follows is a series of very familiar buddy cop scenarios that are directed and written with little energy and zero originality. We have Bruce McGill as the police captain who likes to yell. The main villain is a mysterious arms dealer named Omar who’s played a paycheck cashing Laurence Fishburne. There’s the double crossing cops who are actually in cahoots with the villain. And, obviously, the central female character is going to be put in danger at some point.

Much of these by-the-numbers development that permeate the picture could be forgiven if it had enough genuinely humorous moments. There aren’t many at all. Kevin Hart is a ball of energy, but it doesn’t usually equate to laughs. Then there’s Cube. He’s proven on several occasions that he’s a solid actor whether in drama or comedy. And yet Cube is just left scowling for most of Ride Along‘s running time. With the material he has to work with here, the scowling is justified.

*1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

About Last Night Box Office Prediction

The President’s Day cavalcade of 80s remakes continues on with About Last Night, which updates the 1986 romance that starred Rob Lowe, Demi Moore, Jim Belushi, and Elizabeth Perkins. Perfectly positioned with a Valentine’s Day release – it will face competition from other romantic themed pictures Winter’s Tale and Endless Love, which I’ll get to later today.

About Last Night, however, has a pretty big ace up its sleeve in the form of Kevin Hart who couldn’t be more popular right now with the massive success of last month’s Ride Along. Costars include Michael Ealy, Regina Hall, and Joy Bryant. The combination of Hart and its well-timed release leads me to believe this could open very big, perhaps even surpassing Robocop – another high-profile 80s reboot. For comparisons sake, it could open similar to what The Best Man Holiday did in November with $30 million.

The four day holiday gross may push About Last Night beyond that number by a bit. This film should especially do well with African-American audiences, who made up 87% of Holiday‘s opening weekend crowd. Bottom line: Kevin Hart’s run of box office fortune in 2014 should continue here.

About Last Night opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million (Friday to Monday gross)

For my prediction on Robocop, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Winter’s Tale, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Endless Love, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

Ride Along Box Office Prediction

Ice Cube and Kevin Hart team up for the action comedy Ride Along, out Friday. Both performers have had a history of solid box office returns. Just two years ago, Hart headlined Think Like a Man, which debuted in April 2012 to an astonishing $33.6 million opening. Ice Cube has seen his Barbershop pictures and family titles like Are There We Yet? and sequel Are We Done Yet? all debut in the mid teen to low 20s range.

The range for how Ride Along could perform is pretty wide. I wouldn’t be too surprised if it approached an opening around $30 million for the four-day MLK weekend. However, the amount of competition out there that includes Lone Survivor, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and Devil’s Due might bring those numbers below that. A more likely scenario in my mind is a three-day debut in the high teens with a four-day holiday gross in the low 20s. It is worth noting, though, that these actors have had larger than expected premieres before, so you never know.

Ride Along opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million (Friday-to-Monday)

For my prediction on Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/jack-ryan-shadow-recruit-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Devil’s Due, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/devils-due-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Nut Job, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/12/the-nut-job-box-office-prediction/

Grudge Match Box Office Prediction

Call it Grumpy Old Boxers and call it a potentially lame concept, but Grudge Match may have some nice Christmas returns when it opens Wednesday. The sports comedy pits 67 year-old Sylvester Stallone in a boxing match with 70 year-old Robert De Niro. Of course, these two actors are known for their pugilistic pics – Stallone from the Rocky franchise (the original won the Best Picture Oscar) and De Niro from 1980’s Raging Bull, for which he won an Oscar.

Don’t expect any Oscars here, but a solid box office gross seems more possible. Audiences could simply reject it, but I suspect older holiday moviegoers looking for a laugh could turn to this. Grudge Match is directed by veteran comedy director Peter Segal, whose credits include Tommy Boy, Anger Management, 50 First Dates, and Get Smart. Kevin Hart and Alan Arkin costar.

Reviews should be a non-factor (there aren’t any yet). Stallone has had a dismal 2013 with Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan, two action oriented bombs. This is De Niro’s umpteenth comedy of the year after The Big Wedding, The Family, and Last Vegas.

Grudge Match may play similarly to last year’s Parental Guidance with Billy Crystal and Bette Midler, which opened on Christmas and took in $29 million over six days. The gross for Grudge will be for five days and it may not quite bring in the younger audience that Guidance did. However, I am estimating that this gimmicky comedy will find an audience and a fairly healthy one at that.

Grudge Match opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $24.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)